Expert Picks & Best Bets for Dayton vs Bradley on March 18

• Dayton is a slight 2.5-point road favorite at Bradley in Wednesday’s NIT action
• The Braves are 14-2 at home this season, while Dayton is 6-5 on the road
• See my top Dayton vs Bradley picks and predictions on March 18

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How to Watch Bradley vs Dayton

Postseason basketball brings MASSIVE stakes and tight lines as the Bradley Braves (21-12 overall, 14-2 home) host the Dayton Flyers (23-11 overall, 6-5 away) in a thrilling NIT first-round clash. Despite an impressive second-place finish in the regular-season standings and reaching the conference semifinals, Bradley finds itself a slight home underdog. Dayton hits the road following a tough conference title-game loss, and they’re stepping into a hostile territory solely because its home arena is hosting the NCAA First Four.

The action tips off from Carver Arena in Peoria, IL, at 9:00 PM ET on March 18, 2026, with ESPNU providing the national broadcast. Dayton will look to overcome a volatile true road record, while Bradley aims to take advantage of a formidable home-court advantage under the guidance of head coach Brian Wardle, who recently praised his senior-heavy squad’s evolution, to secure the outright upset. With both programs sitting outside the AP Top 25, bettors can hunt for hidden value away from the heavily backed public favorites. Let’s dive into the board to find the best angles and cash some tickets on this postseason showdown.

Bradley vs Dayton Picks

When evaluating the betting board for this compelling matchup, I always try to strip away public perception and focus strictly on the underlying NET metrics and situational trends. I shopped around and scoured the sportsbooks to find the best price, and FanDuel currently lists Dayton as a narrow 2.5-point road favorite.

Here is how the two teams stack up against each other across key strength-of-schedule indicators:

On paper, Dayton holds the overarching mathematical advantage. They boast a significantly higher NET ranking and have been battle-tested by superior opponents all season. However, a closer look at the quadrant performance reveals a glaring mismatch that heavily supports my betting card. While Bradley did not face any top-25 NET juggernauts this year, they hold a proven 2-1 record against teams ranked 26-50. Dayton has struggled mightily in that exact same tier, going a dismal 0-4 against opponents ranked 26-50. Bradley has proven they can punch above their weight class, using high-percentage FG% looks and disciplined points in the paint to dictate the terms of engagement.

My Pick: Bradley +2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

In this tilt, situational trends scream value for the home team. Bradley is bouncing back aggressively after their narrow 73-69 conference tournament exit. Combine this disciplined style of play with Dayton’s vulnerable 6-5 true road record, and the environment heavily favors a grind-it-out game script controlled by the home squad.

While individual player prop markets are temporarily off the board as data providers finalize postseason adjustments, my eyes are locked on Bradley’s backcourt to limit turnovers and keep Dayton off the charity stripe.

My Total Pick: Under 141.5 (-110 at bet365)

Shifting to the total, I am aggressively attacking the Under. Postseason basketball traditionally breeds increased defensive intensity and deliberate half-court offensive sets. Buckets will be tough to come by with these two teams, and their unfamiliarity with each other might factor into the total of this game as well.

Odds as of March 168 at 2:30 pm ET from FanDuel and Bet365

Bradley vs Dayton Odds

Odds as of March 18 at 2:30 pm ET from DraftKings and BetMGM

The college basketball odds have positioned this postseason showdown as a near coin-flip – and the math backs that up. Oddsmakers opened this game with the visiting squad at 1.5, and now it has moved to -2.5.

When evaluating these lines, the standard -110 odds imply a 52.38% probability that either team covers the spread. Once I remove the sportsbook’s built-in margin (the vig) to calculate the true mathematical likelihood, the normalized, vig-free probability settles at an exact 50.00% for both the home and away sides.

While standard moneyline odds are currently off the board as sportsbooks finalize their postseason projections, bettors looking to back either side on the available point spread will see identical returns. A standard $20 wager on the visitors to cover the -2.5 spread at -110 odds – or a $20 bet on the home underdog at +2.5 – would yield $18.18 in profit, resulting in a total payout of $38.18 on a winning ticket. If a standard -110 moneyline were posted for a pure pick’em, those exact same payout metrics would apply.

Bradley vs Dayton Betting Splits

As tip-off approaches, examining how the college basketball public betting and the money are flowing provides vital context for my wagers. When evaluating betting splits, it is essential to look at both the ticket percentages and the money percentages. Of the two, the percentage of money is the FAR more valuable metric, as it indicates where the larger, more substantial capital is landing.

Currently, the most defined action for this matchup is centered entirely on the game’s total.

Over/Under Market Action:

• OVER: 75.3% of the tickets | 75.52% of the money
• UNDER: 24.7% of the tickets | 24.48% of the money

I constantly look for a “sharp vs public” situation, which occurs when the betting ticket percentage heavily favors one side (60% or greater) while the overall money percentage heavily favors the exact opposite side (60% or greater). In this total market, however, there is no sharp divide. The ticket volume and the overall cash are practically identical, with roughly 75% of both metrics aggressively backing the Over. The broader betting market is united in expecting a high-scoring affair.

The public betting data reveals that my position on the Under is a distinctly contrarian play. With over 75% of the financial liability heavily invested in the Over, the general betting populace expects an offensive showcase fueled by hot 3P% shooting.

Fading such an overwhelming public consensus is often where the most significant value lies in postseason college hoops. By sticking with the Under, I am taking a firm stance against the public’s money, directly capitalizing on the artificially inflated closing line created by their heavy, reactionary action. Line movement does not always equal value – but grabbing the Under at its absolute peak certainly does.