Updated March Madness National Championship Odds Ahead of Second Round – Who’s the New Favorite?

As the madness of the NCAA Tournament unfolds and the field narrows, the futures market is rapidly reacting to every result, though they’re very chalky through round one. Currently, the Arizona Wildcats, Michigan Wolverines, and Duke Blue Devils stand as the clear favorites to cut down the nets following the opening slate of games.

Below, I have set out the March Madness title odds at prediction site Kalshi. Click predict on the graphic below to (a) claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code and (b) see the full list of all 32 remaining teams.

March Madness Title Odds (Pre-Round of 32)

Prediction Markets

MM Champ (March 21)

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Kalshi

Arizona

20%

Duke

18%

Michigan

18%

Florida

10%

Houston

7%

Purdue

5%

Illinois

5%

Iowa St.

4%

UConn

3%

Michigan St.

3%

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Odds and prices as of 9:46 am ET, March 21st. If you don’t live in a region where Kalshi operates, try the Novig promo code or see the full list of active prediction markets.

Arizona Wildcats Are the NCAA Tournament Betting Favorite

Thanks to a demonstrably easier path through the March Madness bracket as the West #1, the Arizona Wildcats are the outright favorite to win the 2026 national championship, currently trading at 20¢ at Kalshi. The Wildcast waltzed through the first round (92-58 vs #16 LIU) and are 11.5-point favorites over #9 Utah State in the second round on Sunday.

If Arizona gets by the Aggies, Tommy Lloyd’s team would meet the winner of #4 Arkansas vs #12 High Point (the worst remaining seed in the tournament).

Duke Blue Devils Fade to Third-Favorite

The chalk at most books entering the tournament, Duke has faded to third at 18¢. The East #1 Blue Devils barely survived a sweaty first-round matchup against #16 Siena, needing to come back from an 11-point halftime deficit.

Cameron Boozer, the heavy favorite in the Wooden Award odds, remains the most-dominant player in the nation. But the loss of Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba may be catching up to Jon Scheyer’s group.

Illinois Fighting Illini on the Rise

Few teams did more for their NCAA Tournament stock in the first round than South #3 Illinois. The Illini poured in a 105 points in a rout of #14 Penn, and will face one of two remaining #11 seeds in the second round: VCU.

No shade to the defending champions but Illinois is also perceived to have the weakest #1 seed in its region: Florida.