Kansas vs St John’s Picks, Predictions & Betting Splits for Round of 32

• Statistical edges and a coaching mismatch favor St John’s against the spread
• Betting splits reveal the public is loading up on St John’s, creating a classic contrarian opportunity
• See my top Kansas vs St John’s picks plus the betting splits and latest odds

Jump to: EXPERT PICKS || ODDS || BETTING SPLITS

How to Watch Kansas vs St John’s

The #5 St John’s Red Storm (29-6) put their seven-game winning streak on the line against the #4 Kansas Jayhawks (24-10) in a March Madness Round of 32 clash on Sunday night. Tip-off is set for 5:15 pm ET on March 22 at Viejas Arena in San Diego, CA, with national broadcast coverage provided by CBS and Paramount+. The winner secures a Sweet 16 berth to face Duke, elevating the playoff implications for both squads.

St John’s captured back-to-back Big East titles and enters this neutral-court showdown as the betting favorite. Kansas stumbled through a grueling Big 12 schedule but breezed by Cal Baptist in the first round. This game features a massive storyline with star Zuby Ejiofor (16.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 3.5 APG, 2.2 BPG) facing his former team. Ejiofor leads St John’s in points, rebounds, assists, and blocks. His dynamic interior presence against a battle-tested Kansas defense creates a fantastic betting angle.

Kansas vs St John’s Expert Picks

Moneyline Pick: Kansas (+158 at Caesars)

I am officially backing the Kansas moneyline (+158 at Caesars). The significant plus-money return on the team with the best player on the floor is too rich to ignore.

Both Bill Self and Rick Pitino have a long history of March success, but only self has a future top-three pick on his roster. On Friday, Darryn Peterson was hyper-aggressive for the Jayhawks, scoring 28 points on 11-of-24 shooting in KU’s 68-60 win over #13 Cal Baptist. The final score flattered the Lancers, who trailed by 20 at halftime and needed an 18-2 garbage time run to cover as 12.5-point underdogs.

Kansas owns the superior defensive profile, allowing just 69.1 points per game., and Self’s half-court defensive schemes are specifically designed to neutralize fast-break offenses like St John’s. The Jayhawks forged their identity through a brutal Big 12 gauntlet, finishing 12-6 in the nation’s toughest conference. That schedule strength matters immensely in a tournament setting where physicality and composure under pressure separate contenders from pretenders.

Ejiofor is a beast who can take over games, but Flory Biduga is an All-Defensive Big 12 standout who gives Kansas a legitimate counterpunch to the Red Storm’s go-to scorer.

The line movement further supports my conviction. Kansas opened at +140 and has drifted to +158, meaning the public is hammering St John’s and inflating the underdog’s value. The Red Storm’s seven-game winning streak looks dominant on paper, but that momentum came largely against Big East competition that lacks the defensive intensity Kansas faced weekly in the Big 12. I believe the market is overweighting St John’s hot streak and undervaluing Kansas’s pedigree.

Game-Total Pick: Under 145.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

My second prediction targets the Under 145.5 (-110) at BetMGM. Both defensive units routinely suppress opponents below the 70-point threshold. Kansas allows just 69.1 points per game and protects the rim efficiently, while St John’s yields only 69.5 while playing at a sluggish pace. When two elite defenses clash in high-pressure postseason environments, points come at a premium. Self’s deliberate half-court tempo will slow St John’s preferred fast-break attack, grinding possessions and limiting transition opportunities. I expect a physical battle that stays well below the oddsmakers’ projection.

Kansas vs St John’s Best Odds (Spread, Moneyline & Total)

Prediction Markets

KU vs STJ Odds

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

St. John's ML

62%

KU +3.5

51%

STJ -3.5

51%

Over 144.5

51%

Under 144.5

50%

Kansas ML

40%

Predict

The current betting board establishes St John’s as decisive moneyline favorites. The Red Storm are a market-best -156 at Kalshi (aka 61¢) on the moneyline and -3.5 against the spread. The Jayhawks are as long as +158 at Caesars. The game total ranges from 144.5 to 145.5. Over bettors should take over 144.5 (-104) at Kalshi. Under bettors should grab under 145.5 (-110) at BetMGM.

If you are looking to translate these moneyline odds into potential returns, a $20 bet on Kansas (+158) yields $31.60 in plus-money profit, returning a total payout of $51.60 if the Jayhawks pull off the upset. On the other side, a $20 bet on St John’s (-156) nets only $12.80 in pure profit for a total payout of $32.80. The risk-reward profile overwhelmingly favors the underdog in this spot.

The Red Storm are currently the 11th-favorite in the March Madness odds (+3233). Kansas is a +9900 longshot.

Kansas vs St John’s Betting Splits

Analyzing Sunday’s college basketball public betting splits provides a transparent look at where the sharp money is landing and where contrarian value exists. On the moneyline, St John’s is commanding 64.54% of the betting tickets and 62.32% of the overall stake. The public has clearly bought into the favorite’s narrative, leaving Kansas with just 35.46% of the bets and 37.68% of the money. I view this lopsided public action as a contrarian signal. When the masses pile onto a favorite at inflated juice, the underdog’s plus-money value only grows.

In the ATS splits, the majority of the tickets (54.82%) are taking the points with Kansas, but only 41.80% of the total handle is on the Jayhawks.

When reviewing the total, the public is overwhelmingly expecting a shootout. Currently, 71.24% of the tickets and 69.05% of the handle are backing the over.

Kansas vs St John’s H2H Team Stats