Odds, Picks & How to Watch or #5 Kentucky vs #4 West Virginia

• Kentucky and West Virginia battle for the Sweet 16
• West Virginia has never won multiple tournament games in its history
• Read below for my Kentucky vs West Virginia picks

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A Sweet 16 matchup with #1 Texas is on the line as the #5 Kentucky Wildcats (24-10) and #4 West Virginia Mountaineers (28-6) battle in Morgantown, WV. The WVU Coliseum will host the game at 5:00 pm ET on Monday, March 23. ESPN2 will handle the broadcast.

Keep reading for my Kentucky vs West Virginia picks as well as the odds for the second round showdown. I have provided a statistical profile for both teams as well as the semi-recent history of their matchups.

Kentucky vs West Virginia Odds

West Virginia is favored at home for this tournament clash. West Virginia bettors should take the Mountaineers at -175 on the moneyline at BetMGM or -3.5 ATS at DraftKings (-110). Kentucky bettors should take the Wildcats at +152 on the moneyline at Caesars or +3.5 ATS at BetMGM (-110 odds).

The total is set between 129.5 and 130 points. Over bettors should take over 129.5 points at BetMGM for -110 odds. Under bettors should take under 130 points at Caesars for -110 odds.

Kentucky vs West Virginia Picks

• Under 130 (-110, Caesars)

While both teams have prolific offenses among the top 35 in the country, I anticipate a turnover fest. West Virginia forces the 13th-most turnovers in the country (21.9 per game) while Kentucky leads the nation with 6.6 blocks per game. Additionally, neither team is particularly efficient from the stripe. The Mountaineers are the slightly superior team, but they have only knocked down 70.8% of their freebies, a bottom-half mark.

Facing a de facto “Press Virginia” style, Kentucky should break the press a few times for easy layups, but the relentless pressure could wear on the Wildcats, especially in the second half. The key player to watch as a press breaker is Tonie Morgan. Morgan led the SEC with 8.1 assists per game, but she averaged north of 3.6 turnovers per game.

• Kentucky +152 (Caesars)

The most important player on the floor is Kentucky’s Clara Strack. The double-double machine is Kentucky’s leader in points, rebounds, steals, and blocks. Her 243 defensive rebounds top the SEC. Her defensive presence will be the difference between winning and losing.

One underrated piece of Strack’s game is her passing. She won’t set any records for accruing assists, but Kentucky did go 6-1 when she had three or more assists. She had four in Kentucky’s Round 1 win over James Madison.

While West Virginia is favored for good reason, I like Caesars’ price here at +152. With those odds, the implied win probability is a shade under 40% (39.68%). I view the game as more of a tossup, so I will happily take the extra potential profit.

Kentucky vs West Virginia: Team Stats

Kentucky vs West Virginia: History

This is the first Kentucky vs West Virginia showdown on the hardwood since December 2021. Kentucky holds a 3-1 lifetime edge over the Mountaineers, winning all three regular-season matchups.

In the 2005 Women’s NIT, West Virginia knocked off Kentucky (in Lexington) in double overtime to reach the final. Now, Kentucky will make its first-ever trip to Morgantown, looking to enact postseason revenge.

Kentucky won the most recent matchup 83-60. Rhyne Howard led the way, scoring 27 points and knocking down five threes. On the West Virginia side, Kirsten Deans had 20 points, and Esmery Martinez had a double-double.

How to Watch Kentucky vs West Virginia

ESPN2 will carry the Kentucky vs West Virginia broadcast at 5:00 pm ET on Monday, March 23. The winner will advance to face top-seeded Texas on March 28 in a to-be-determined time slot.