Which Conference Will Win March Madness? See the NEW Favorite Entering Sweet 16

• The Big Ten is now favored to produce this year’s March Madness winner
• Six Big Ten teams are left out of the remaining 16, two more than any other conference
• See the updated conference odds to win March Madness, and find out who you should be betting in this market

Before March Madness tipped off, the Big 12 was favored to produce the eventual champion. Now, after four days and two rounds, a new favorite has emerged.

Conference Odds to Win March Madness

Prediction Markets

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Kalshi

Big Ten

39%

Big 12

36%

ACC

17%

SEC

13%

Big East

5%

Any other conference

3%

Predict

Heading into the Sweet Sixteen, Kalshi is giving the Big Ten the highest chance of producing the NCAA Tournament winner. The prediction market has pegged the Big Ten as the equivalent of a +156 favorite in traditional sports betting terms, followed by the Big 12 at +194, and the ACC at +355.

The Big Ten has a tournament high six teams remaining, which is two more than the SEC, and three more than the Big 12. None of the SEC teams are favored in the Sweet Sixteen draw of the printable March Madness bracket, while all three Big 12 teams are laying points, as are half of the Big Ten squads.

The remaining teams belong to the Big East (2) and ACC (1), with UConn and Duke favored in their respective matchups, and on a collision course to meet in the Elite Eight.

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Which Conference Will Win March Madness

With all due respect to the SEC, Big East and ACC, I believe this market is a two horse race. Sure, Duke was the pre-tournament favorite, but they haven’t looked the part just yet. They’re still figuring out how to deal with their March Madness injuries, and barely squeaked by Sienna in the 1st Round.

The Blue Devils looked better in the second half of their 2nd Round victory over TCU, but they played with their food in the opening 20 minutes, and caught a break facing a Horned Frogs team that is woeful defensively. They’ll likely have to go through both Big East teams (St. John’s and UConn) to reach the Final Four, and even though they’ll be favored I could see either one of those squads sending them home early.

March Madness Teams Remaining by Conference

As for the Big 12, they have two legit contenders in Houston and Arizona, who is now the March Madness championship odds favorite. Both have dominated inferior competition in Rounds 1 and 2, but neither has an easy path to the Final Four. The Cougars will have to go through the nation’s most efficient offense in Illinois, and there are real concerns that they won’t be able to match production with the Fighting Illini.

Arizona on the other hand, is likely to run into a pair of Big Ten powerhouses in Purdue and Michigan if they want to crack the championship contest. Purdue is playing as well as anyone in the country right now, while the Wolverines blend of 3-point shooting and stifling defense can run anyone out of the gym.

Which brings us to the Big Ten’s chances of producing the winner. I would have taken this conference before the tournament started and now there’s a very real chance they can have a representative in all four Elite Eight contests.

Three of the Big Ten’s remaining teams (Michigan, Nebraska and Purdue) are all favored in their Sweet 16 matchups, while I’m all over Illinois to upset Houston as a short dog. Michigan State is also as live an underdog as there gets versus UConn, as advanced projection models have the game as a literal coin flip.

It’s conceivable that one of the Elite Eight matchups is all Big Ten showdown between the Cornhuskers and Fighting Illini, while the way the bracket is set up, the possibility of all Big Ten Final Four is also in play.

By backing the Big 10, we’re simply getting more bullets at the eventual winner. I haven’t even mentioned Iowa, and they just knocked off the defending champs and No. 1 seed Florida. The conference has four of the top-nine championship favorites remaining, and I’m confident the eventual winner will either be the Wolverines or Boilermakers.