See Odds for 25th Amendment to be Used During Trump Presidency

• Scott McConnell, founding editor of The American Conservative magazine, recently called for Vice President JD Vance to support the use of the 25th Amendment
• Section IV of the 25th Amendment allows the Vice President and members of the Cabinet to declare the President unable to perform their duties and replace them
• Traders on Kalshi are closely following this volatile prediction market as new voices call for the enactment of the 25th Amendment

Over the weekend, Scott McConnell, a co-founder of The American Conservative magazine, posted on X a call for Vice President JD Vance to use the 25th Amendment to remove President Trump from office and insert himself in the role. The 25th Amendment was written into law in 1967 after John F. Kennedy’s assassination to create a constitutional procedure to transfer Presidential powers for a variety of reasons.

Most commonly, it’s used to temporarily transfer powers to the vice president while the president undergoes surgery. Former Presidents Joe Biden and George W. Bush have used the amendment while undergoing medical procedures during their terms, with each transfer lasting no more than a few hours. While this use case is temporary and enacted by the president, Section IV of the 25th Amendment allows for the Vice President and members of the Cabinet to vote for the removal of the sitting president.

Section IV has never been formally invoked, though there have been rumblings of using it during both of President Trump’s terms, progressing as far as the House voting 223-205 in 2021 to adopt a resolution to compel Vice President Pence to invoke the amendment. Pence ultimately did not go forward with the resolution, resulting in Trump being impeached by the House.

Calls for the 25th Amendment during his second term started gaining traction in October 2025 after a series of speeches and Truth Social posts left some questioning whether or not Trump was fit for office. The calls grew louder during Trump’s continued efforts to annex Greenland in January. The latest call for the use of the 25th Amendment comes as the US enters its 3rd week of war with Iran and mixed messaging about the war coming from the president and his Cabinet.

As Trump’s second term progresses, there is growing confidence from traders on prediction markets that the vice president may invoke the 25th Amendment. Users can trade on whether or not Section IV will be used during Trump’s presidency.

Odds for 25th Amendment to be Used on President Trump

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From the time President Trump took office for the second time, there has been a market with some confidence that the 25th Amendment will be used to remove him from his seat. In January 2025, the market on Kalshi was already showing a 15% implied probability of the president being removed from power.

The market remained fairly stable until a July roundtable on immigration, where Trump went off topic and began talking about water pressure, which was the beginning of months of turbulence. This volatility has continued to the present day, with the markets swinging from lows of 15% to highs of 34.1% based on the president’s comments, speeches, social media posts, and military actions. After hitting its high of 34.1% as the partial government shutdown began, the market has experienced less sweeping swings and remained between 27-34%, with a slow creep upwards as the war in Iran drags on.

The market will resolve as a “Yes” if Vice President Vance and a majority of President Trump’s Cabinet hand Congress a written declaration that Trump is unable to fulfill his duties as president before the end of his second term.

Will President Trump be Removed from Office by the 25th Amendment?

While some of the calls for the invocation of the 25th Amendment are coming from within the Republican party, it is unlikely that these calls will ever become more than a flashy headline. The Democrats were unable to force the issue in 2021 when they controlled both the House of Representatives and the Senate, as they also needed the Vice President and members of the President’s Cabinet to agree to the calls. With the Republicans currently controlling both the House and the Senate and midterms approaching, it would be unprecedented for them to deliver such a massive blow to their own party.

It would be far more likely to see the Democrats push for impeachment after the midterms if they are able to secure the House and the Senate. Impeachment would be the path of least resistance to remove the president from office, as it only requires a two-thirds vote from Congress, while the 25th Amendment would require the same two-thirds approval along with the vote of the Vice President and the Cabinet.