#2 Purdue vs #11 Texas – Picks, Predictions & How to Watch Sweet 16

Published: March 26, 2026 at 11:58 am EDT

Purdue Boilermakers guard Fletcher Loyer looks to his bench — Purdue Boilermakers guard Fletcher Loyer (2) yells towards the bench during a NCAA Tournament second round game against the Miami Hurricanes on Sunday, March 22, 2026, at Enterprise Center in St. Louis.

I am backing the Purdue to cover an alt-spread against Texas
My analysis also targets under 148
Discover where the sharp money is flowing in the totals market ahead of tip-off

How to Watch Purdue vs Texas

The #2 Purdue Boilermakers (29-8 SU, 13-7 Big Ten, 17-20 ATS) are riding a six-game win streak as they head into their Sweet 16 clash against the #11 Texas Longhorns (21-14, 9-9 SEC, 19-15 ATS) at the SAP Center in San Jose, CA. With a spot in the Elite Eight on the line, action tips off at 7:10 pm ET on Thursday, March 26. CBS and Paramount+ will carry the national broadcast.

Purdue enters as a heavy favorite, relying on elite half-court execution and highly efficient shooting but could be without CJ Cox (8.5 PPG, 38.4% from three), one of their primary perimeter threats. Texas has won three straight as underdogs to go all the way from the First Four to the Sweet 16.

Purdue vs Texas Picks & Predictions

ATS Pick: Purdue -4.5 (-163 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

PUR vs TEX Alt-Spread

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Purdue -4.5

62%

Predict

The Boilermakers were the preseason #1 team in the nation in both the AP Poll and Coaches Poll, and the #2-ranked team at KenPom. Over the last two weeks, they finally started living up to the hype -winning four games in four days to capture the Big Ten Tournament, and then covering the spread in their first two March Madness games: 104-71 vs #15 Queens as 25.5-point chalk, and 79-69 vs #7 Miami as 7.5-point favorites.

Matt Painter’s team has phenomenal balance – Braden Smith is the best point guard in the country, Trey Kauffman-Renn can take over games in the post, and Fletcher Loyer is an absolute assassin from deep (43.3% on 6.6 attempts/game). All three average just over 14 PPG, while center Oscar Cluff (10.5 PPG) and two-guard CJ Cox (8.5) have the potential to lead the team on any given night.

Cox was injured in Purdue’s second-round win over Miami but appears on track to play. In a postgame interview, Cox believed he could have returned against the Canes and he’s listed as “probable” in the March Madness Sweet 16 injury reports.

Texas is played unsustainably well last week. This is a team that never entered KenPom’s top-30 teams at any point this season after starting the year at #39. The Longhorns sit just 81st in the nation in defensive efficiency and are going to be exploited by Purdue’s multifaceted attack. BYU and Gonzaga shot a combined 8-for-38 (21%) from three against Texas in the first and second rounds.

That wasn’t entirely unexpected. Both teams were three-point challenged all season. Purdue, however, is eighth out of 365 DI teams in three-point percentage (38.8%) and takes over 40% of its field-goal attempts from deep.

I like Purdue -7.5 but I’m more inclined to the alternate 4.5-point spread at steeper odds. Only three of Purdue’s 29 wins this season came by fewer than five points. That jumps to seven when you boost the margin of victory to seven or fewer. Smith, Loyer, and Cox all hit at 83% or better from the stripe. A slim lead in the final minutes will balloon if Texas is forced to put them on the line.

PUR vs TEX Team Stats

Statistic	Purdue	Texas
Overall Record	29-8	21-14
ATS Record	17-20	19-15
O/U Record	20-17	19-15
Points Per Game	82.2	82.9
Points Allowed Per Game	70.1	76.1
KenPom Score Proj.	82	74
Halsametrics Score Proj.	80.53	71.66
Torvik Score Proj.	82	73

Stats reflect 2025-26 regular season and current 2026 postseason data.

Purdue vs Texas Odds (Best Spread, ML & Total)

Thursday’s college basketball odds list Purdue at -7.5 across the board with the best odds (-105) found at DraftKings. Texas is a standard -110 at most books, including bet365. The game total shows a one-point range from 147.5 (over -115 at FanDuel) to 148.5 (under -115 at DraftKings).

On the moneyline, Purdue is a market-best -345 at FanDuel and +285 at DraftKings. Prediction site Kalshi, however, has better options for both teams. Purdue is priced at 76¢ to win (equal to a -317 moneyline) with Texas at 25¢ (equal to a +300 moneyline).

Purdue enters the Sweet 16 as the +1300 fifth-favorite in the latest March Madness championship odds. Texas is the biggest longshot left on the board at +30000, not surprising given that the Longhorns are the only remaining double-digit seed and rate nine spots lower than any of the other 15 teams at KenPom.

Purdue vs Texas Betting Splits

Evaluating the college basketball public betting handle provides crucial insight into where the larger bankrolls are positioning their capital.

In the spread market, Texas is currently drawing 66.92% of the tickets but a more modest 53.97% of the total spread handle. Purdue is attracting 46.03% of the money on just 33.08% of the bets. That’s not quite indicative of a sharp-vs-public split but shows that larger wagers are on Purdue to cover.

In the totals market, a staggering 92.38% of the tickets are on the over, reflecting the casual bettor’s preference for high-scoring action. However, that massive ticket count accounts for only 59.75% of the actual money. The under has garnered just 7.62% of the tickets but commands a highly disproportionate 40.25% of the total stake.

Sascha Paruk

Managing Editor

Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.

NFL NBA MLB NHL NCAAF NCAAB Politics Tennis MMA Sportsbooks Gambling