Expert Picks, Predictions & How to Watch #6 Tennessee vs #1 Michigan (Elite Eight)

• The Midwest #1 Michigan Wolverines play the #6 Tennessee Volunteers in Chicago on Sunday
• Michigan is a heavy favorite to advance to the Final Four
• See my top Tennessee vs Michigan picks and predictions, plus the latest odds and how to watch

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How to Watch Michigan vs Tennessee

The Midwest #1 Michigan Wolverines (34-3 SU, 19-1 Big Ten, 17-20 ATS) play the Tennessee Volunteers (25-11 SU, 11-7 SEC, 17-18-1 ATS) in the Elite Eight on Sunday, with a Final Four berth against West #1 Arizona on the line. Tip-off is 1:15 pm CT/2:15 pm ET on March 29 at the United Center in Chicago, IL. CBS will have the national broadcast and Paramount+ will stream live coverage.

I analyze the moneyline, point spread, and game total, below, in order to find the best Michigan/Tennessee picks and props to target.

Michigan vs Tennessee Odds

Prediction Markets

Spread, ML & Total

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Michigan

77%

Under 146.5

52%

MICH -7.5

51%

TENN +7.5

50%

Over 146.5

50%

Tennessee

24%

Predict

Odds as of March 29, 2026, at 9:12 AM ET from Kalshi. Claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi promo code ahead of Sunday’s Elite Eight games.

Prediction site Kalshi lists Michigan as a 77¢ moneyline favorite, which is equal to -335 moneyline odds. The best price at traditional sportsbooks is -350 at BetMGM. The Vols are 24¢ (+317) at Kalshi and +290 at FanDuel.

The best ATS price on the Wolverines is 7.5 points (-104 to cover the spread at Kalshi/-110 at BetMGM). The best ATS price on Tennessee is +8.5 (-118) at FanDuel.

The total ranges from 146.0 (Ov -110 at Caesars) to 146.5 (Un -108 at Kalshi).

A $100 bet on Michigan (-335) returns $30 profit for a $130 payout. A $100 bet on Tennessee (+317) returns $317 in profit for a $417 payout.

In the latest March Madness championship odds, Michigan is the +315 second-favorite behind West #1 Arizona, which has already punched its ticket to the Final Four. Tennessee has the longest odds of the six remaining teams at +4000.

TENN vs MICH Betting Splits

Sunday’s college basketball public betting splits show 89.66% of moneyline tickets and 87.14% of moneyline handle on Michigan. Tennessee draws 10.34% of tickets and 12.86% of handle.

Against the spread, Michigan is drawing 56.74% of tickets and 64.79% of handle, leaving Tennessee with 43.26% of tickets and 35.21% of handle.

The total is completely lopsided towards the over, which has attracted 85.5% of tickets and 84.19% of handle roughly four hours before tip-off.

Michigan vs Tennessee Pick: TENN +8.5 (-118) at FanDuel

My top pick for Michigan/Tennessee is the Volunteers to cover the 8.5-point spread. Michigan used its size and physicality to bully #9 Saint Louis (95-72) and #4 Alabama (90-77) in their last two games; the Wolverines finished +14 on the glass against the Billikens and +15 against the Tide.

On Sunday, they’ll face a Tennessee squad that’s not afraid to bang. Indeed, they’ll meet a Vols team that wants to turn games into hyper-physical rock fights. UT finished an absurd +21 on the boards against #2 Iowa State last time out (a 76-62 win), including +8 on the offensive glass.

Tennessee has shown no fear against statistically superior opponents. The Volunteers are 4-1 ATS as underdogs this year, including straight-up wins against Houston (76-73 neutral), Alabama (79-73 away), Vanderbilt (69-65 away), and Iowa State in the Sweet 16. They don’t always win the games they should but there was only one game this season where Rick Barnes’ team really failed to show up (a 91-67 loss at Florida).

Tennessee’s pace is also a factor that leans towards the underdog. The Volunteers place at the 297th-fastest pace in DI. Slower games result in fewer possessions and fewer chances to extend the lead, if Michigan has it at all. The Wolverines (25th in pace) were in their element against the run-and-gun Crimson Tide (4th in pace) and Billikens (20th). UT’s relentless defense will do its best to slow this game to a crawl.

Tennessee is also one of the few teams that can contend with Michigan’s size. JP Estrella and Felix Okpara are both at least 6’10, 240. They will make 7’3 Michigan center Aday Mara work for his stats.

I don’t trust Tennessee’s offense enough to bet the Vols to win outright but I love catching this many points with a team that’s as relentless and physical as Rick Barnes’ squad.