Trade at Kalshi & Get a $10 bonus when you sign up today!
Who’s the National Championship Favorite Heading into Final Four: Arizona, Michigan, Illinois?
By Sascha Paruk in College Basketball
Published:
- The 2026 Final Four field is set
- #1 Michigan faces #1 Arizona, while #3 Illinois meets #2 UConn
- See that latest March Madness champion odds
The 2026 Final Four is set for next weekend at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The Midwest #1 Michigan Wolverines will meet the West #1 Arizona Wildcats in one national semifinal, while the South #3 Illinois Fighting Illini will face the East #2 UConn Huskies in the other.
Arizona and Michigan have been the top-two favorites for the last week and that hasn’t changed, even though only one can qualify for Monday’s national championship game.
Updated March Madness Champion Odds
March Madness champion odds as of March 29th at Kalshi. Lock in SBD’s Kalshi promo code for the Final Four.
The top-three favorites are all within a few cents of each other at Kalshi. Only South Region-winner Illinois is seen as an improbable national champ heading into the Final Four.
Arizona Wildcats Favored
The West #1 Arizona Wildcats are currently the outright favorite, priced at 36¢ (+178) at Kalshi to win its first natty since 1997 when Miles Simon and Mike Bibby propelled the Wildcats by Kentucky.
Tommy Loyd’s team has won each of its first four NCAA Tournament games by at least 12 points and by an average of 20.5 PPG. They were pushed in the Elite Eight by Purdue, trailing 38-31 at halftime before storming back for a lopsided 79-65 win.
Arizona is 4-0 ATS in the tournament and 2-2 O/U.
Michigan Wolverines on a Tear
Though they’ll be playing the Wildcats in the Final Four, Michigan is the second-favorite heading into the national semifinals, priced at 35¢ (+186). Michigan has also won each of its first four tournament games by double-digits, and UM’s average margin of victory is even higher (22.5 PPG).
The Wolverines embarrassed #6 Tennessee in the Elite Eight, taking a 22-point lead into halftime and only expanding it after the break (95-62).
Michigan failed to cover in round one against Howard (21-point win as 30.5-point favorites) but has covered three straight since. The Wolverines are 3-1 O/U during March Madness.
The opening Michigan vs Arizona odds are a pick’em with both teams listed at -110 on the moneyline.
UConn Mounts Epic Comeback Against Duke
In one of the most insane comebacks in March Madness history, UConn rallied from a 15-point halftime deficit to oust #1 overall seed Duke (73-72). UConn didn’t hold a single lead in the second half until Braylon Mullins put the Huskies up one with less than a second remaining.
In the Dan Hurley era (since 2019), UConn is now 10-0 in the Sweet 16 and beyond. But the Huskies remain the longest shot on the board, trading at just 14¢ (+614).
The opening Illinois vs UConn odds favored the Illini by 2.5 and -134 on the moneyline. UConn is a +112 underdog to pull off a second straight upset.
KALSHI TRADING
Must be 18+ years or older & residing in the United States. Other Terms & Conditions may apply.
LOCK IN PROMO
CODE: DIME
CODE: DIME
Sascha Paruk
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
NCAAF
NCAAB
Politics
Tennis
MMA
Sportsbooks
Gambling
