UFC Fight Night Picks, Predictions & Odds: Moicano vs. Duncan

• Tonight’s UFC Fight Night is headlined by the Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan lightweight bout
• This will be Duncan’s first five-round fight, while Moicano has three such bouts under his belt
• See my favorite UFC Fight Night picks and predictions below, plus the latest odds for Moicano vs Duncan

The Apex in Las Vegas is the site of tonight’s UFC Fight Night, with the event headlined by the Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan lightweight bout. Online sportsbooks are siding with Duncan ahead of the fight, which opens up a major betting opportunity on his opponent, the much more seasoned fighter.

The UFC Fight Night prelims are set to begin at 2:15 pm ET, 5:15 pm ET on Paramount+, with the main card fights scheduled to start at 5:15 pm PT, 8:15 pm ET, also on Paramount+.

Here are my UFC Fight Night picks and predictions, along with the latest betting odds.

UFC Fight Night Odds – Main Card

Odds as of April 4 at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.

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UFC Fight Night Picks: Moicanao Moneyline

Duncan is the younger and more powerful fighter in this bout, but there are plenty of reasons to fade him. Let’s start with his durability. He’s been hurt and knocked down plenty of times in his short UFC tenure, the majority of times by lesser fighters than Moicano.

His grappling stats grade out a little higher than Moicano’s; however, he hasn’t faced the same type of wrestlers that his opponent has. Moicano is much more technically sound on the mat, both positionally and in scrambles, and boasts better takedown defense than the Scotsman.

Duncan likely won’t have to worry about being knocked out by Moicano, who has just two career KO’s. However, Moicano’s submission prowess, led by his rear-naked choke hold, is a move Duncan has been caught in before.

Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan Tale of the Tape

Moicano is also the cleaner striker and quicker, more well-rounded athlete. He’s used to five-round fights, with three career headline bouts under his belt, while this will be the first such fight for Duncan.

These two used to be training partners, and I’m confident the more experienced fighter, with better athleticism, comes out on top. The betting market feels the same way, as the price on Moicano is getting shorter by the hour.

• UFC Fight Night Predictions: Renato Moicanao Moneyline (+120 at Bet365)

UFC Fight Night Picks: Tabatha Ricci Moneyline

Another fighter sharp bettors are on tonight is Tabatha Ricci, in her strawweight bout with Virna Jandiroba. Ricci’s price has gradually been shortened since opening odds were released, as bettors are gravitating towards the younger, more athletic woman.

For a long time, Ricci was a one-trick pony. She could control fights on the ground but was vulnerable on her feet. That’s changed recently, as she’s flashed not only better striking technique, but significantly more power as well.

That was on display in her knockout victory over Amanda Ribas, and it’s going to be a huge factor against Jandiroba. The older woman can dominate and control on the mat against inferior grapplers and hunt for submissions, but she does everything she can to avoid deciding fights on her feet.

Ricci won’t afford her that luxury, as her elite wrestling skills will prevent Jandiroba from getting into comfortable positions when she does take her down. When they inevitably get back to their feet, Jandiroba’s wide fight style makes her susceptible to strikes and limits her lateral mobility.

The bulk of her losses have come against strong grapplers who have the power to hurt her with their striking. That’s the exact profile we’re getting from the new-and-improved Ricci.

• UFC Fight Night Predictions: Tabatha Ricci Moneyline (+114 at DraftKings)