D-backs vs Mets Picks, Predictions for April 9

• The New York Mets enter as consensus -163 moneyline favorites
• Eduardo Rodriguez vs Nolan McLean is why we’re backing the Under 7 runs total
• See our expert analysis and best bets for Diamonbacks at Mets on Thursday night

The Mets and Diamondbacks split the first two games of their three-game series.

Tonight, aces Nolan McLean and Eduardo Rodriguez will have a large say in which squad wins the series.

The Mets are slight home favorites, even without Juan Soto. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 pm, ET, under the lights at Citi Field, with the broadcast airing locally on regional sports networks.

This betting preview breaks down the starting pitching, offensive trends, and game markets to find the best value on the board for Diamondbacks at Mets tonight.

Diamondbacks vs Mets Odds

The Mets enter this contest as decisive home favorites, laying -163 on the moneyline to secure an outright victory. Removing the sportsbook’s juice, the vig-free probabilities calculate to a 59.50% implied win probability for the Mets and a 40.50% chance for the Diamondbacks, perfectly summing to 100%. Given the anticipated low-scoring nature of this matchup, betting the runline presents an interesting dynamic; you can grab the Mets -1.5 at a plus-money +138 payout, while taking the Diamondbacks +1.5 costs a premium -165.

When betting lines first opened, the game total was initially set at 7.5 runs. As first pitch approaches, oddsmakers have dropped the total down to a flat 7. This downward shift aligns with a growing market respect for the impeccable form of both starting pitchers.

In the runline market, there has been fascinating reverse line movement. Despite the Mets commanding heavy public action, the price for the -1.5 spread lengthened from its opening number of +134 to +138. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks’ odds to cover +1.5 shortened from -162 to -165. This suggests that the sportsbooks are highly comfortable absorbing the influx of money on the home side, anticipating that elite starting pitching will keep the final score within a single run.

Prediction site Kalshi has ML markets available for both teams.

Each Mets to win contract is trading for $0.60, which equates to -150 odds. Each Diamondbacks to win contract is trading for $0.41, which equals +141 odds. In each case, Kalshi’s contracts are providing more value than the best odds currently available at a sportsbook.

If you don’t already have an account at Kalshi, click “PREDICT” in the graphic below to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code.

Prediction Markets

Mets vs Diamondbacks

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

New York M

60%

Arizona

41%

Predict

Diamondbacks vs Mets Prediction & Best Bets

• Best Bet: Mets ML (-150 at Kalshi)
• Best Bet: Under 7 Total Runs (-105 at Bet365)

When evaluating the advanced metrics, the Mets Moneyline emerges as the strongest side to back. The Mets hold a significant advantage in the later innings, which should ultimately decide this contest. The home pitching staff has been phenomenal overall (2.90 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), but their bullpen is truly elite, pitching to a suffocating 1.71 ERA. In stark contrast, the Diamondbacks’ relief corps has been a massive liability, bleeding runs to the tune of a 5.77 bullpen ERA. Even if Rodriguez keeps the game close, the Diamondbacks’ late-game vulnerabilities make laying the juice on the home favorites the reliable play.

Given the top-tier starting pitching matchup, betting the Under 7 total runs (-105) is the logical pivot. Runs will be at an absolute premium early. Rodriguez has been immaculate this season, while McLean has been equally frustrating for opposing hitters. Looking at the situational trends, the Diamondbacks have struggled as underdogs, winning just 40.0% of their games (2-3) when catching odds.

For the prop markets, our top edge lies in backing Eduardo Rodriguez Under Total Earned Runs (-148). The veteran is heavily supported by the data, as he has yet to surrender an earned run all year. Offensively, look toward Francisco Alvarez Over Total Hits (-133). The standout catcher is currently hitting .300 with an eye-popping 1.033 OPS, making him a prime candidate to spark the offense with a crucial base hit.

If you are looking to maximize value with a Same Game Parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook, pair these correlated outcomes:

• Nolan McLean to record a win (+145)
• Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 Total Hits (-133)
• Eduardo Rodriguez Under 1.5 Total Earned Runs (-148)

This structure leverages McLean pitching deep into the game with a lead, Alvarez continuing his hot streak at the plate against a vulnerable bullpen, and Rodriguez doing his part early before handing it over to a struggling relief unit.

Eduardo Rodriguez vs Nolan McLean 2026 Stats

Thursday’s pitching matchup presents a fascinating contrast in styles between a veteran finesse southpaw and a high-octane righty.

Rodriguez has been a master of inducing weak contact and managing the strike zone. While his 6.00 K/9 and 14.2% strikeout rate are far from overpowering, his command has been immaculate. Opposing hitters have struggled to square him up all season, leading to a pristine 0.92 WHIP and an exceptional 2.57 FIP that validates his tremendous run prevention. He enters this game having not surrendered a single earned run across 36.0 innings to start the 2026 season.

On the other side, McLean relies on raw power to overwhelm hitters. McLean brings serious swing-and-miss stuff to the mound, boasting a 10.45 K/9 and a 20.3% strikeout rate. He has effectively kept runners off the basepaths with a minuscule 0.87 WHIP. Although his 3.54 FIP and 3.71 xFIP suggest some slight over-performance relative to his 2.61 ERA, McLean has been reliable at avoiding major damage when contact is made, holding opponents to just a .139 batting average.

D-backs vs Mets Stats

Below is a side-by-side comparison of key per-game metrics from the 2026 regular season, complete with each team’s league-wide rank in brackets.

Diamondbacks vs Mets Betting Trends

• Mets as a Favorite: The Mets have struggled to deliver when laying odds this season, posting a 33.3% win rate (2-4) as the betting favorite.
• Mets as an Underdog: When catching odds, the Mets have been highly profitable, winning 100% of their matchups (2-0) as an underdog.
• Mets Game Totals: The Under has cashed at a low 16.7% rate in the Mets’ games, indicating a high volume of total pushes or Overs.
• Diamondbacks as a Favorite: The Diamondbacks have perfectly capitalized on advantageous matchups, boasting a 100% win rate (2-0) when listed as the favorite.
• Diamondbacks as an Underdog: The Diamondbacks have found it difficult to pull off upsets, winning just 40.0% of their games (2-3) when listed as the underdog.
• Diamondbacks Game Totals: The Under has rarely cashed in the Diamondbacks’ matchups this season, hitting at a low 25.0% clip overall.

Public Betting Splits & Market Action

Analyzing the MLB public betting splits—specifically comparing the percentage of tickets to the percentage of handle—is a crucial step in understanding how the market is attacking a game. While ticket counts reveal public sentiment, the money percentages highlight where the heavier capital is flowing.

Moneyline Market: The public is confidently backing the home favorites. The Mets are currently drawing 64.4% of the moneyline tickets and 55.6% of the overall financial handle. The visiting Diamondbacks command 35.6% of the tickets and 44.4% of the money. While the slightly higher money percentage on the road underdog indicates some respect, the majority of the backing resides with the home club.

Runline Market: The confidence in the Mets amplifies significantly when looking at the runline. Bettors are heavily invested in the -1.5 spread, accounting for 74.0% of the tickets. More importantly, an overwhelming 88.7% of the runline handle is riding on the favorites. The Diamondbacks are seeing very little support to keep the game within a run, taking just 26.1% of the tickets and a meager 11.3% of the money.

Total Runs Market: When it comes to the game total, the market action paints a picture that directly opposes our recommended betting angle. The public loves runs in this spot, with the Over attracting 67.1% of the tickets and 67.6% of the total money. Conversely, the Under is drawing just 32.9% of the tickets and 32.4% of the handle. Backing the Under means taking a decidedly contrarian stance.