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Best Live Masters Picks for Saturday, Round 3

Michael Harrison

By Michael Harrison in Golf

Published:


Feb 2, 2025; Pebble Beach, California, USA; Shane Lowry (left) and Rory McIlroy (right) talk on the 17th hole during the final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am golf tournament at Pebble Beach Golf Links. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
  • Defending champion Rory McIlroy is lapping the field with a six-stroke lead after two rounds of the Masters
  • With McIlroy so far ahead, betting odds for every other player is intriguing, should he have a tough weekend
  • See my 2026 Masters picks, best value bets, and the odds to win heading into Round 3

After last year’s spellbinding run to the green jacket to complete the career grand slam, Rory McIlroy is doing video game stuff at the 2026 Masters. He birdied six of his last seven holes on Friday to set the largest lead through two rounds (six shots) in 90 years of playing the Masters.

Heading into the week, the Ulsterman was +1025 in the Masters odds to become just the fourth ever golfer to win back-to-back green jackets (Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo, Tiger Woods). This event is far from over, however, with the ghosts of Masters past lurking around every corner, particularly with quality major champions directly behind him. Here are the odds entering the weekend, along with some selections that could wrestle away the title from McIlroy.

Live Masters Odds For Round 3 (2026)

GolferOddsScore/Position
Rory McIlroy-250-12/1st
Patrick Reed+1600-6/T-2nd
Tommy Fleetwood+1950-5/T-4th
Justin Rose+2200-6/T-4th
Sam Burns+2250-6/T-2nd
Cameron Young+2700-4/T-7th
Shane Lowry+3700-5/T-4th
Brooks Koepka+5600-3/T-13th
Jason Day+6400-4/T-7th
Tyrrell Hatton+6800-4/T-7th
Scottie Scheffler+6900E/T-24th

I won’t sugarcoat things, it would be very surprising if Rory McIlroy failed to secure his second career Masters title. However, this has been the year of 54-hole leaders crumbling on the PGA Tour this season, and this is an extra round to go. It’s difficult to lead by so many strokes, with human nature dictating golfers playing a little bit too conservatively.

Through 36 holes, McIlroy is in complete control, marked by the six birdies in the last seven holes, with a remarkable pitch in for birdie on 17 the big highlight.

Through two days, McIlroy has missed more fairways than he’s hit (15 missed, 13 hit). That’s second worst in the entire field in driving accuracy, which could rear its ugly head on the weekend. It’s a small sample size, but on the circuit this season, Rory is 118th in third round scoring average, allowing someone on moving day to potentially jump up the board and put heat on him.

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Masters Third Round Predictions

The golfer I selected pre-tourney to slip into his second career green jacket was Patrick Reed, and I’m standing by him as the best chance for a competitor to track down the leader. He’s in a tie for second after a pair of 3-under, 69’s. Reed won this tournament in 2018, and has four top-10s since, including a third place showing last year, and T-4th in 2023.

Reed put up a pair of eagles on the first nine holes Thursday, and was bogey free on Friday until 18. He’s had just three dropped shots through 36 holes, and is a bulldog of a competitor. You know he’d relish the opportunity to play the ‘heel’ and take down the presumptive winner and patron favorite. Reed doesn’t back down from a challenge, and has the mindset to erase the lead.

That wouldn’t be without precedent, after Reed defeated McIlroy in a single’s match for the ages in the 2016 Ryder Cup. He also with McIlroy in the final pairing in the 2018 iteration, where he was able to clip McIlroy and claim the green jacket.

Live Masters 2026 Picks & Value Bets Entering Round 3

  1. Shane Lowry +3700: Shane Lowry is McIlroy’s fellow Irishman who begins Saturday seven adrift. In the 2026 PGA Tour season, nobody has a better scoring average on Saturday’s than Lowry, who has shot 67.00 on average. He’s racked up 30 greens in regulation (of 36) through two days, and shot a bogey-free 3-under, 69 Friday. He’s the 2019 Open Championship winner, and has seven other major top-10s in his career to his credit, including a T-3rd at the 2022 Masters.
  2. Tyrrell Hatton +6800: Speaking of a bulldog mentality from earlier, Tyrrell Hatton has that in spades. He’ll begin eight strokes off the pace, becoming just the third player in the last 30 years to hit all 18 greens in regulation on Friday. He shot a blistering 6-under, 66, the second best round of the week (McIlroy’s 65 Friday). Last year was his best chance at capturing an elusive major, where he wound up T-4th at the U.S. Open. The former world #5 is world class, with seven career top-10s in majors, and at these odds, is very intriguing to mount a comeback.

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Michael Harrison
Michael Harrison

Sports & Entertainment Writer

Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 20 years, is the CEO of his "All Bets Par Off" weekly golf betting videos and his HDOG POD, along with several others.

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