Game 1 Canadiens vs Lightning Picks, Prediction & Betting Odds

• The Lightning are -185 favorites over the Canadiens in Game 1 of their 1st Round series
• The total is set at 6.5 which feels high given the play of both netminders recently
• See below for my favorite Game 1 Canadiens vs Lightning picks and prediction, plus the latest betting odds

The second contest of today’s NHL quadruple-header features the Canadiens visiting the Lightning in Game 1 of their 1st Round series. Tampa Bay is among the favorites to make it out of their side of the draw in the NHL Playoff Bracket, so it’s no surprise that online sportsbooks are siding with them today in the NHL odds. The Lightning are listed as -185 moneyline favorites, but I’m more interested in betting the game’s 6.5 goal total for the reasons I’ll lay out below.

Puck drop for this Eastern Conference showdown is scheduled for 5:45 pm ET from Benchmark International Arena, in Tampa, FL. TNT and truTV will handle broadcast duties across America, while Sportsnet will carry the game for Canadian viewers.

Here are my favorite Game 1 Canadiens vs Lightning picks and prediction, plus the latest betting odds.

Game 1 Canadiens vs Lightning Picks

• Under 6.5 (-132 at FanDuel)

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My favorite bet this afternoon is under 6.5 goals. If you want to know why the Lightning are a legit Stanley Cup odds contender, look no further than their pedigree and the man between the pipes. Tampa Bay has hoisted Lord Stanley twice in the last six years, and made an additional Cup Final appearance. Jon Cooper is one the best coaches in the game, while Andrei Vasilevskiy is a perennial threat to emerge victorious in the Vezina Trophy odds.

Vasilevskiy led the NHL in wins this season, while finishing second in goals against average and third in save percentage. He was also one of the leaders in goals saved above expectation, and helped Tampa Bay end the final 10 games of the season as one of stingiest teams in terms of expected goals against.

In front of him, the Lightning are as potent offensively as any team in hockey, ranking fourth in expected goals for at all strengths. Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel and Brandon Hagel all racked up 36+ goals, while Brayden Point would have approached the 30-goal plateau if he had been able to stay healthy all season long.

The Bolts have a major advantage over the Canadiens offensively, but Montreal has been getting phenomenal goaltending lately which should help keep this game under the total. Jakub Dobes posted a .901 save percentage this season and a league-high 18.9 goals saved above expectation over his final 20 starts.

As for the Habs skaters, Cole Caufield has dominated the offensive production, but the team as a whole has been struggling to light the lamp. Since the Olympic Break, Montreal ranks bottom-10 in expected goals for.

Game 1 Canadiens vs Lightning Prediction

• Jake Guentzel 1+ Point (-162 at FanDuel)

Moving over to the NHL props market, where I’m also betting Jake Guentzel to record at least 1 point. Yes, the -162 juice at FanDuel is a bit steep, but it’s worth noting the line is priced 20 cents higher everywhere else.

Guentzel averaged over a point per game this season, and boasted the Lightning’s third best shooting percentage. Only Kucherov had more assists, while Guentzel has points in six of his last seven meetings overall against the Habs.

Canadiens vs Lightning Betting Odds

Odds as of April 19. Claim the FanDuel promo code to bet on the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

If you’re looking to tail my bets today, FanDuel has the best odds on both wagers. They’re the only book currently offering a total of 6.5, while Guentzel’s prop is priced significantly longer there than at other shops as mentioned.

As for the NHL public betting splits, the betting action on the total is split nearly down the middle, with the under drawing 52% of the tickets and 51% of the handle. The biggest discrepancy looks to be in the moneyline market, where sharp cash is on Montreal to win outright. The Habs are drawing only 35% of the wagers so far, but those bets make up 71% of the moneyline handle.