76ers vs Knicks Predictions & Best Bets for Game 1
By Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball
Published:
- The Knicks are 7-point favorites over the 76ers in Game 1 of their 2nd Round series tonight
- New York is 27-13 ATS on their home floor this season
- See my 76ers vs Knicks predictions and best bets for Game 1, below
Game 1 of the 76ers vs Knicks Eastern Conference Semifinal tips off at 8 pm ET tonight at historic Madison Square Garden. NBC and Peacock will provide the broadcast to the American audience, while TSN will Canadian TV duties.
Star power dominates this series, featuring an elite showdown between dynamic Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson and dominant 76ers big man Joel Embiid. New York will look to dictate the pace and defend their turf as a 7-point home favorite in the NBA odds, while Philadelphia possesses the sheer firepower to be a highly dangerous underdog.
Keep reading for my favorite 76ers vs Knicks predictions and best bets below, along with the latest Game 1 odds.
76ers vs Knicks Predictions
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My favorite 76ers vs Knicks predictions tonight are New York -7 and under 213.5. Backing the home team here aligns perfectly with a highly profitable recent trend. The Knicks are 5-1 against the spread at home as a favorite over their last six games. Dating back to the regular season, New York boasts a massive 67.5% cover rate (27-13) and a 75.0% straight-up win percentage on their home floor.
76ers vs Knicks Playoff Stats
The biggest mismatch driving my confidence is on the glass. New York is eating up rebounds this postseason, leading the playoff field with a 55.4% Total Rebound Percentage and generating a league-best 18.3 second-chance points per game. Philadelphia’s rebounding has essentially fallen off a cliff, ranking a dismal 14th in Total Rebound Percentage (46.8%). New York is mathematically securing extra possessions and converting them into high-percentage looks with their 118.4 Offensive Rating.
Philadelphia plays a distinct brand of gritty basketball when catching points away from home. The over has hit in just one of the 76ers’ last eight games on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, Philadelphia operates at a grindingly slow Pace of 96.3 (13th in the postseason) and protects the basketball incredibly well with a 2-to-1 Assist to Turnover Ratio. By limiting turnovers and slowing the game to a crawl, they are engineered to force a halfcourt rock fight. Give me the Under.
76ers vs Knicks Odds
SPORTSBOOK
If you want to tail my picks tonight you’ll need access to multiple betting sites. Caesars sportsbooks is offering the best odds on Knicks -7 at the time of writing, while Bet365’s 213.5 point total is the lowest in market.
New York enters play tonight with the third lowest NBA Championship odds, while only Minnesota has a longer price tag to win the Larry O’Brien trophy than Philadelphia.
76ers vs Knicks Best Bets
- Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 Points (-115 at DraftKings)
Switching gears to the NBA props market, where over 26.5 points for Brunson is a strong value in our NBA player prop analyzer. Brunson has been the ultimate offensive engine for New York, averaging a staggering 26.3 points per game on 46.8% shooting in the playoffs. Given that he sees 34.9 minutes of floor time per night and dictates the tempo for the league’s second-best playoff offense, betting on his scoring volume over 26.5 points remains the sharpest player prop angle on the board.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.