Early UFC 328 Odds, Predictions: Chimaev vs Strickland Card Picks

• UFC 328 takes place Saturday, May 9th from Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey
• Khamzat Chimaev defends his middleweight title against Sean Strickland in a grudge match main event
• Check out the early UFC 328 odds, predictions and best value below

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UFC 328 might be the best card of the year. Two title fights, a stacked main card, and a legitimate grudge match at the top of the bill. Khamzat Chimaev makes his first middleweight title defense against former champ Sean Strickland, and these two genuinely do not like each other.

The co-main features Joshua Van making his first flyweight title defense against Tatsuro Taira. The early prelims start at 5 pm ET on Paramount+, with prelims at 7 pm ET and the main card at 9 pm ET.

Here are the early UFC 328 odds and my predictions for the card.

Early UFC 328 Odds

Chimaev is a -550 favorite in the main event. That’s an implied probability of 84.6% for the champ. The biggest favorite on the card is Gautier at -1350 over Ozzy Diaz. The flyweight title fight is the most interesting line on the board with Van as the +145 underdog despite being the defending champion.

Green at -345 over Stephens is steep given Green’s inconsistency over the years, but Stephens has one win in his last 10 fights so it’s hard to argue the other side. Brady vs Buckley at -180/+150 is a solid main card fight that could go either way.

Odds as of May 5th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Grab a DraftKings promo code for UFC 328 or browse UFC betting apps.

Early Chimaev vs Strickland Prediction

Chimaev (15-0) is one of the most physically dominant fighters in UFC history. His wrestling is suffocating. He averaged 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes across his UFC career and landed 12 of 17 against Dricus du Plessis to win the belt, racking up over 21 minutes of control time in a 25-minute fight.

Strickland (30-7) is the better striker and has the cardio to go five hard rounds. He just dominated Anthony Hernandez, a pressure grappler, by stuffing every takedown attempt and keeping the fight standing. But Chimaev is a different animal than Hernandez.

Tale of the Tape

The question is whether Strickland can keep this standing long enough to make Chimaev work. Strickland only gave up about two minutes of control time against du Plessis despite being taken down six times. He scrambles well and doesn’t stay on his back.

But the Burns and Usman fights showed that Chimaev can be pushed into deep waters when an opponent makes him work. Both of those were at welterweight, which matters, but the cardio concern is real. If Strickland survives the first two rounds, he could turn this into a war of attrition in the championship rounds.

I think Chimaev’s wrestling is too much in the early rounds. He should be able to control the fight from the top for the first 15 minutes and build a lead that Strickland can’t overcome. At -550, the moneyline is unplayable, but I expect Chimaev to win a decision.

• Chimaev vs Strickland Early Pick: Chimaev by Decision (price TBD)

Early Van vs Taira Prediction

This is the fight I’m most excited about on the card. Van (16-2) is the defending flyweight champ but he’s listed as the underdog at +145. That’s a wild line for a sitting champion with a six-fight winning streak.

Van won the belt when Pantoja broke his arm early in their fight, so the “paper champ” narrative is following him. But he was dominant before that, including a decision win over Brandon Royval, the same fighter who handed Taira his only loss.

Van is a cardio machine who lands 8.84 significant strikes per minute. That volume is insane at flyweight. He drowns opponents with output and never slows down. The concern is he absorbs 6.39 per minute, which is a lot of damage over a five-round fight.

Taira (18-1) averages 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and has elite grappling. If he gets Van down and locks in the body triangle, it could be over quick. He finished Brandon Moreno with ground-and-pound and submitted HyunSung Park with a face crank. The grappling is world class.

I think Van’s volume and pace give Taira problems, especially in the later rounds. Taira’s entries will get sloppier as the fight goes on, and Van is the type of fighter who gets better in rounds four and five. At +145, the champ is the value play.

• Van vs Taira Early Pick: Joshua Van Moneyline (+145 at DraftKings)

Other UFC 328 Predictions

Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta:

Volkov is 6’7″ with a three-inch height advantage and two extra inches of reach. He almost never loses pure striking fights and has only been knocked out twice in 50 professional bouts, both times before 2019.

Waldo has three straight knockouts and is riding momentum, but his best wins are Derrick Lewis and Serghei Spivac. This is a massive step up. Volkov should jab and range-fight his way to a decision. At -175, the price is fair for the better fighter.

• Pick: Alexander Volkov (-175)

Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley:

Brady is one of the best wrestlers at welterweight. He landed 17 takedowns across his last three fights before the Morales loss, including five-plus in each of those bouts against Leon Edwards, Gilbert Burns, and Kelvin Gastelum. His top pressure is suffocating.

Buckley has knockout power with 15 career wins by KO, but his grappling defense was exposed by Kamaru Usman, who controlled him for nearly 13 minutes. I expect Brady to follow the same blueprint. Buckley’s win condition is too narrow in a three-round fight.

• Pick: Sean Brady (-180)

Yaroslav Amosov vs Joel Alvarez:

Amosov (29-1) is a former Bellator champion who paused his career to defend his hometown during the war in Ukraine. He submitted Neil Magny in his UFC debut. The chain wrestling and top game are elite.

Alvarez is dangerous with violent offense and legitimate finishing ability, but his takedown defense is suspect. Before the Luque fight, he had essentially 0% TDD and mostly got taken down before subbing people from guard or off scrambles. Amosov’s grappling is a tier above that. I expect Amosov to control this fight on the mat.

• Pick: Yaroslav Amosov by Decision (price TBD)

King Green vs Jeremy Stephens:

Stephens has one win in his last 10 fights. His last UFC victory was a knockout of Josh Emmett back in February 2018. He showed he can still generate offense in the Mason Jones fight, but his defense and footwork have fallen off a cliff.

Green just knocked out Daniel Zellhuber in the second round in Mexico City. He’s faster, more technical, and showed he can wrestle when needed with three takedowns in that fight. At -345, the moneyline is too steep, but Green should handle Stephens without much trouble. The method of victory props are the better play here.

• Pick: King Green by KO/TKO (price TBD)

Mateusz Rebecki vs Grant Dawson:

This fight is binary. Either Dawson gets his takedowns and blankets Rebecki for a boring decision, or Rebecki catches him early and puts him out. Dawson has poor striking defense and has been hurt or dropped in recent fights. Rebecki is a stocky power puncher who sets an insane pace and never stops coming forward.

Dawson often spends too long striking before committing to the wrestling, and that early window is dangerous against a guy like Rebecki. I think Rebecki catches him. This is close enough at +145 that I’m comfortable taking the underdog.

• Pick: Mateusz Rebecki (+145)

Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis:

Sabatini looked like a different fighter in his last outing, completely mauling Chepe Mariscal with his wrestling. Gomis is a back-foot counterstriker with low volume, which is the exact style Sabatini can exploit by chain wrestling for 15 minutes.

The only danger is Gomis clipping him with a knee or head kick on an entry, but Sabatini’s improved level changes should limit that risk. At -205, this is one of the safer favorites on the card.

• Pick: Pat Sabatini (-205)

Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz:

Gautier is -1350 and for good reason. He has eight KO/TKO wins in 10 career victories and finished three of his first four UFC opponents in the first round. Diaz is coming off a decision win over Djorden Santos, but he gets hit too clean and doesn’t hold up against power punchers.

The -1350 moneyline is obviously untouchable. The play here is Gautier by KO in the first round if the props offer any value.

• Pick: Ateba Gautier by KO Round 1 (price TBD)

UFC 328 Early Value

The best value on the card is Van at +145 in the co-main. A defending champion with a six-fight win streak getting plus money is rare, and his volume gives Taira real problems in the later rounds. If you like the champ, now is the time to grab it before the line moves.

Rebecki at +145 is another plus-money play worth looking at. Dawson’s striking defense is a liability, and Rebecki has the power and pressure to capitalize early. Brady at -180 against Buckley is one of the more reliable favorites on the main card given his wrestling pedigree. Those are your best early UFC 328 bets.