UFC 328 Prelims Picks & Predictions – Best Bets Include Gautier vs Diaz

• Saturday’s UFC 328 Prelims feature 8 fights, including the Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz middleweight bout
• Gautier is the biggest favorite on the board at -1050, and a good bet to finish his opponent early
• See my UFC 328 Prelims picks and prediction, along with my best bets including Gautier vs Diaz

UFC 328 goes down tonight, with the card headlined by the Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland championship bout. Before we can even start thinking about the Main Card, there are 8 Prelim fights to digest, with my favorite betting opportunity coming from the Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz tilt.

The UFC 328 Prelims are set to get underway at 2:15 pm PT, 5:15 pm ET on Paramount+, with the Main Card fights starting at 6:15 pm PT, 9:15 pm ET also on Paramount+.

Here are my UFC 328 Prelims picks and predictions, along with my best bets including Gautier vs Diaz and more.

UFC 328 Prelims Predictions: Gautier Method of Victory and Round

UFC 328 Prelims Pick #1: Gautier to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (-150 at Bet365)

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $10 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose!

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY).

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $10
GET $200

WIN OR LOSE!

CLAIM OFFER

Gautier will enter the octagon with -1050 odds to beat Diaz, making him by far the biggest favorite on the board. For context, only two of the 14 bouts feature a fighter with -500 odds or shorter, and one just happens to be Chimaev, who’s never lost in 15 career UFC fights and holds the middleweight championship belt.

One look at these two fighters and it’s not hard to see why Gautier is such a massive favorite. The Cameroon fighter looks like a Greek God that’s been chiseled out of stone. There isn’t an ounce of fat on his body, while Diaz looks like your average weekend warrior. Then consider the fact that Gautier is 11 years younger than his opponent, and boasts significantly more speed and power, and it’s not hard to talk yourself into an early finish.

It also doesn’t hurt that Gautier has a history of ending fights in Round 1. He recorded three consecutive first-round knockouts to start his UFC career, and Diaz just happens to be very hittable. He’s incredibly stationary in the pocket, which explains how he absorbs over 7 significant strikes per minute on average. That’s an incredibly dangerous game to play against such a heavy hitter like Gautier, and I believe it will lead to his early demise.

All three of Diaz’s losses have come by knockout, and this fight profiles as one where Gautier can flatten his opponent early, and solidify his position as one of the most terrifying middleweights in the sport.

UFC 328 Prelims Predictions: Pat Sabatini Moneyline

• UFC 328 Prelims Pick #2: Sabatini Moneyline (-162 at DraftKings)

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Next up, I’m backing Pat Sabatini on the moneyline versus William Gomis. Sabatini enters the ring with an elite wrestling pedigree, and that style should help neutralize Gomis’ stand-up game. Gomis has been taken down in each of his UFC fights so far, and on the mat is not a place you want to find yourself versus Sabatini.

The American averages nearly 5 takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon, and enters the fight with a smothering 88% control rate. He doesn’t just take his opponents down; he keeps them there, slowly squeezing the energy out of them and preventing points from being accumulated against him.

That’s a significant issue for Gomis, who doesn’t have the kind of power that typically leads to finishes. He has just one finish on his UFC resume, and it came as the result of a body kick. The Frenchman instead tries to out-point his opponents, a strategy that can work if the fight stays upright. Sabatini simply won’t let that happen, and I expect him to dominate with his wrestling, ultimately securing a decision or late-round submission.