Expert Picks, Predictions & Props for Yankees vs Mets on May 17

• It’s a virtual pick’em Sunday when the New York Yankees and New York Mets battle in the rubber match of their 3-game set
• The Mets are just 3-8-0 as an underdog this season
• Read below for my Yankees vs Mets picks, updated odds and player prop picks

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After an absolutely brutal start to the campaign, the New York Mets (19-26) look for their fourth series win in the last five sets, as they play the rubber match of their 3-game series against the New York Yankees.

It’s basically a pick’em, with a few books giving a slight edge to the Mets in the MLB odds.

First pitch is set for 12:40pm ET from Citi Field in Queens, with MLB TV providing the national broadcast coverage.

Yankees vs Mets Odds

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Use the BetMGM promo code to wager on Yankees vs Mets.

As of late Saturday night, some books had the moneyline odds split at -110 for either squad. Currently it’s the Mets as the home favorite at -107 odds at DraftKings, while the Yankees are sitting at -102 to win outright on FanDuel.

Looking at the runline, taking the Yankees to win by at least two runs offers a healthy +168 payout, while the Mets keeping it inside two runs is a less enticing -178 number at Caesars.

Over bettors will want to hit up bet365, where the line is set at 8.0 runs, while those wanting to go Under can get a half-run more from BetMGM.

NY Yankees vs NY Mets Picks and Prediction

• Best Bet: Over 8 runs (-115 at bet365)

Looking at the MLB probable pitchers, and the pitching mismatch immediately stands out.

The Mets hold a distinct advantage on the mound, as Freddy Peralta brings a sturdy 3.10 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and an impressive 9.12 strikeouts per nine innings to the table Sunday.

Meanwhile, Yankees starter Elmer Rodríguez has struggled across his limited 8.2 innings of work, carrying a 5.19 ERA, a bloated 2.08 WHIP, and an alarming 8.31 walks per nine innings.

Opponents hit .303 against Rodríguez, making early exits a constant danger. Conversely, Peralta averages 5.48 innings per start and limits opposing hitters to a .219 batting average, providing much-needed stability.

That’s part of the reason my Yankees vs Mets best bet is to target the Over. Rodríguez’s high WHIP suggests the Mets will have plenty of traffic on the basepaths.

And you cannot count out those Bronx Bomber bats.

The Yankees’ potent lineup features Aaron Judge (16 HRs, 30 RBIs, 1.010 OPS) and Ben Rice (14 HRs, 1.104 OPS). On the road, the Yankees launch 1.20 home runs per game (fifth in MLB) with an 89.7 mph average exit velocity (third in MLB). They are a threat to push run totals higher regardless of the pitching matchup.

Yankees vs Mets Props

Freddy Peralta Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110 at DraftKings)
He’s coming off a road win in Detroit where he sat down struck out seven, and has rung up at least seven in two of his last four starts, missing a third Over by a single strikeout.

Peralta faced New York as a member of the Brewers in 2025, and struck out eight in five innings of work.

Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Total Bases (+132 at bet365)
Looking at the MLB batter vs pitcher stats Bellinger has the second-most at-bats against Peralta in the Yankees lineup, and a lot of success. In his career, he’s 6-for-14 vs Peralta, a nice .429 clip, including a .714 slugging percentage and 1.181 OPS.

He’s tagged him for a home run and a double, while driving in three runs. After an 0-for-5 Saturday, this is a great bounce-back opportunity for the left fielder.