Reds vs Phillies Predictions, Picks & Betting Splits

• The Philadelphia Phillies are -150 moneyline favorties in the rubber match of their 3-game set with Cincinnati
• Andrew Abott starts for the Reds, while Philly will send Aaron Nola to the bump
• Read below for the my Reds vs Phillies prediction, picks updated odds and betting splits

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It’s the rubber match of a pretty competitive 3-game series between the Philadelphia Phillies (25-23) and Cincinnati Reds (24-24).

Cincinnati is coming off a 4-1 win Tuesday night, while Philadelphia opened the set with a 5-4 victory.

The books have the home favorites winning their seventh series in a row, setting them as -150 favorites in the MLB odds.

First pitch goes at 1:05pm ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, with MLB TV providing the broadcast coverage.

Reds vs Phillies Prediction

• Best Bet: Over 10 Runs (-105 at bet365)

When evaluating how this matchup will unfold, the MLB probable pitchers immediately points to a high-scoring affair.

The Phillies send Aaron Nola to the mound, who has struggled to keep runs off the board this season. He holds a 5.91 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP while surrendering 1.77 home runs per nine innings.

On the other side, the Reds counter with Andrew Abbott. While he has a better 4.21 ERA, he struggles with traffic on the basepaths, sporting a 1.50 WHIP. Both starters yield a WHIP of 1.50 or higher, meaning offenses will have opportunities with runners in scoring position.

Given the vulnerability of both starters, the Over 10 runs is my logical play for the game total.

Pitching Matchup: Andrew Abbott vs Aaron Nola

Nola has been susceptible to solid contact, allowing opponents to hit .293 against him. However, his 4.84 FIP is notably lower than his ERA, indicating he may have experienced unfortunate luck. He must cut down his 3.55 walks per nine innings to escape jams.

Abbott relies heavily on inducing timely outs to strand runners. He walks 4.03 batters per nine innings and lacks dominant strikeout stuff, managing just 6.14 K/9. Both starters are chased early, averaging just over five innings per start. I expect heavy usage from both bullpens.

When evaluating team statistics, the Phillies hold a clear power advantage at home. They rank seventh in OPS (.761) and average 1.44 home runs per game in front of their home crowd. Anchored by Bryce Harper and Trea Turner, this lineup continuously puts stress on opposing pitching.

The Reds have struggled to string hits together on the road, sitting 22nd in batting average (.227). However, they average 1.04 stolen bases per away game. Star shortstop Elly De La Cruz uses his athleticism to turn walks into scoring opportunities, giving the visitors a clear edge in manufacturing runs.

Reds vs Phillies Picks

Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-102 at FanDuel)
Despite run-prevention issues, Nola’s strikeout stuff is largely intact. He averages a robust 9.07 K/9. At near even-money, backing Nola to rack up at least six punchouts is a strong value play.

Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+154 at DraftKings)
Schwarber has mashed 20 home runs with an elite .980 OPS. Against Abbott, taking a shot on Schwarber to go deep offers an excellent payout.

Kyle Schwarber 2+ Total Bases (-130 at BetMGM)
Schwarber is slugging .624 on the year. An extra-base hit cashes this ticket instantly, providing a slightly safer alternative to the home run prop.

Reds vs Phillies Odds & Betting Splits

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Be sure to use the BetMGM promo code to bet on Reds vs Phillies or any other MLB game.

The Reds enter Thursday afternoon’s contest as +125 road underdogs on the moneyline at bet365, who also have them getting 1.5 runs on the runline, paying out at -160 odds.

For the Phillies, they are a short -143 at DraftKings to win outright. Picking them to cover by at least two runs pays out at a healthy +142 at FanDuel.

Analyzing the MLB public betting splits, the public is putting 67% of the money and 70% of the bets on the Phillies moneyline.

The splits are nearly the same when looking at the total, where 66% of the money and 60% of the bets are on the Over, currently set to 10 runs.

The Under is getting 40% of the bets, but getting just 34% of the money.