Expert Picks & How to Watch Yankees vs Blue Jays (May 20)

• The New York Yankees have won the first two games of the series as they battle the visiting Toronto Blue Jays
• Will it be a pitching duel between Cam Schlittler and Trey Yesavage?
• You’ll have to keep scrolling to see expert picks, injury reports and the latest odds

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The New York Yankees (29-19) continue their series against the visiting Toronto Blue Jays (21-26) on May 20, 2026, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:05 PM ET at Yankee Stadium.

Following yesterday’s narrow 5-4 victory, the Yankees look to build on their momentum. They capitalized on a pair of timely home runs to edge out the win. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays hope to bounce back after out-hitting their opponents but failing to capitalize on run-scoring opportunities. I am breaking down the betting value for tonight’s American League matchup.

Blue Jays vs Yankees Predictions and Picks

I see excellent betting value backing the home favorites tonight. The Yankees boast a clear pitching mismatch with Cam Schlittler on the mound. He sports a 1.35 ERA and a suffocating 0.78 WHIP over 60.0 innings.

Conversely, Trey Yesavage takes the mound for the Blue Jays. While his 1.40 ERA looks impressive, it comes with a 1.29 WHIP over just 19.1 innings. This elevated metric indicates he allows far too much traffic on the basepaths.

Situational trends strongly support laying the juice. The Blue Jays have been an abysmal bet as an underdog this season, winning just 26.3% of those contests (5-14). Additionally, they have won only 25.0% of their last 10 games when catching plus money (1-3).

• Moneyline Pick: Yankees (-170 at Caesars Sportsbook)
• Over/Under Pick: Under 7.5 (-104 at DraftKings)
• Best Player Prop: Cam Schlittler Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-155 at BetMGM)
• Secondary Player Prop: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 at Bet365)

Odds as of May 20, 2026, at 1:42 PM ET from BetMGM, Bet365, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings

I am targeting the Under based on the elite run prevention profiles of both starters. The Yankees maintain a stellar 3.36 team ERA, and the Blue Jays lack consistent power away from home. The Under is the smart play in a game primed to be a pitcher’s duel.

For player props, Schlittler averages an elite 10.20 strikeouts per nine innings. Backing him to record at least six punchouts against a sluggish offense provides excellent value. On the offensive side, Aaron Judge is primed to exploit a vulnerable opposing pitcher who struggles with command.

Probable Pitchers and Team Matchups

Cam Schlittler vs Trey Yesavage

Tonight’s MLB probable pitchers matchup features two arms who have allowed very few runs this season, but a deeper look at their underlying metrics paints two different pictures.

Schlittler has been a dominant force, compiling a stellar 6-1 record. His 1.35 ERA is fully supported by an outstanding 1.82 FIP. Schlittler excels at limiting baserunners, holding opponents to a .168 batting average while maintaining an elite 10.20 K/9 against just 1.65 BB/9 over his last 10 appearances.

On the other side, Yesavage brings a 1-1 record to the mound. However, warning signs lurk beneath the surface. His 1.29 WHIP suggests he has benefited from favorable sequencing, especially when factoring in his elevated 3.72 BB/9 walk rate. He also forces his bullpen into action much earlier, averaging just 4.83 innings per start.

Offensive Mismatches

A deep dive into the 2026 situational splits underscores just how pronounced the gap is between these two divisional rivals. The table below compares the Yankees’ prolific home offense against the Blue Jays’ lackluster road production.

The Yankees are virtually unstoppable at home this season. They lead all home offenses in almost every critical power category. Averaging an eye-popping 6.50 runs and nearly two home runs per game in their home ballpark, this lineup inflicts relentless damage. MLB batter vs pitchers stats will help you build your MLB parlays.

Conversely, the Blue Jays have struggled immensely on the road. They rank near the bottom of the league in runs per game (3.71), OPS (.653), and average exit velocity (87.7 mph). Their inability to manufacture runs organically puts immense pressure on a pitching staff carrying a mediocre 4.06 overall ERA.

Blue Jays vs Yankees Odds and Betting Splits

Odds as of May 20, 2026, at 1:47 PM ET from Bet365, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings

The Yankees enter this matchup as decisive home favorites. MLB odds opened the moneyline with the Yankees at -160, but overwhelming public support has pushed the line further in their favor to -170. Bettors are heavily backing the home squad outright, as 79% of moneyline tickets favor the favorites. You can also find different odds and bet boosts at theScore Bet sportsbook.

The MLB public betting percentages tell a similar story, with 74% of the overall moneyline handle backing the Yankees. Because both the tickets and the money heavily favor the home side, there is no sharp vs public divide to exploit on the moneyline.

The action on the runline paints an even more definitive picture. A staggering 87% of the runline money is laying the 1.5 runs with the Yankees. The fact that the money percentage is nearly 10 points higher than the ticket percentage suggests that larger wagers are comfortable backing them to cover the spread.

While the moneyline action aligns perfectly with my official pick, my Under projection represents a stark contrarian stance. A hefty 68% of tickets and 56% of the money handled are riding on the Over. The public is banking on an elite home offense to drive up the scoreline, creating value on the Under.

Injury Report

Both clubs are navigating significant health issues early in the 2026 season. The Blue Jays are managing an extensive injury list that has severely depleted their starting rotation.

The Blue Jays’ injury report reads like a triage unit, particularly concerning their pitching staff. With Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber, and José Berríos sidelined, they are forced to plug major holes in their rotation. This lack of depth places an enormous burden on a bullpen missing key pieces.

For the Yankees, the absence of Giancarlo Stanton takes away a massive power threat. However, their lineup has proven deep enough to absorb the blow. Ultimately, the Blue Jays’ catastrophic pitching injuries give the Yankees a massive structural advantage tonight.