Pirates vs Cardinals Picks, Props & Betting Splits

• The St. Louis Cardinals are home favorites as they battle the Pittsburgh Pirates
• This could be a low-scoring game script that will favor the home side.
• Keep reading because you’ll want the latest odds, predictions, and injury reports

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The St. Louis Cardinals (27-19) continue their series as home favorites against the road underdog Pittsburgh Pirates (24-23) on May 20, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 PM ET at Busch Stadium. This matchup comes right on the heels of their previous clash on May 19, where St. Louis slugged its way to a 9-6 victory over Pittsburgh.

In that contest, the Cardinals flexed their muscle with four home runs. Meanwhile, the Pirates flashed strong offensive momentum of their own, racking up 12 hits and mounting a four-run fifth inning in a losing effort. Always check MLB weather updates to see if a game is delayed or postponed.

With probable starters Michael McGreevy taking the mound for St. Louis and Carmen Mlodzinski getting the nod for Pittsburgh, I have an intriguing pitching dynamic to evaluate. My betting preview breaks down everything you need to know before locking in your wagers, analyzing pitching splits, offensive trends, and key ballpark factors for tonight’s showdown.

Pirates vs Cardinals Picks & Predictions

The Cardinals hold a massive advantage on the mound with Michael McGreevy. He enters this start boasting an elite 2.10 ERA and a minuscule 0.88 WHIP across 51.1 innings of work. McGreevy has completely stifled opposing hitters, limiting them to a .189 batting average.

Moneyline Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (-118 at DraftKings)

Conversely, the Pirates are sending Carmen Mlodzinski to the bump. Mlodzinski has struggled to limit traffic on the basepaths, pitching to a 5.29 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP. Given the clear starting pitching edge and home-field advantage at Busch Stadium, my confident outright pick is the

Total Pick: Under 7.5 runs (-110 at BetMGM)

Additionally, with McGreevy’s proven ability to suppress opposing offenses and Pittsburgh hitting a modest .221 on the road, leaning toward the Under 7.5 Runs (-105) makes the most sense. I project a low-scoring game script. The Under has hit in 70.0% of St. Louis’s last 10 contests.

Player Prop Best Bet: Jordan Walker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+107 at Caesars Sportsbook)

When it comes to the prop market, I am looking closely at Cardinals slugger Jordan Walker. He has been a nightmare for opposing pitchers this season, slashing .299 with a staggering .945 OPS.

With 13 home runs already on his 2026 resume, Walker has demonstrated consistent extra-base power. Facing Mlodzinski, who surrenders plenty of baserunners, getting plus-money on Walker to record at least two total bases provides excellent betting value.

Odds as of May 20, 2026, at 2:42 PM ET from BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbooks and DraftKings

Mlodzinski vs McGreevy

When comparing the surface-level metrics, McGreevy holds a dominant advantage. St. Louis has benefited greatly from his consistency, helping him secure a 6-3 personal record. His exceptional control has been on full display recently, maintaining a 2.10 ERA and issuing only 1.93 walks per nine innings over his last 10 games. You can do a deep dive into stats with our MLB batter vs pitchers stats page.

Mlodzinski’s 1-3 record suggests a pitcher who has struggled to navigate through lineups. However, a deeper look reveals a different underlying story. Mlodzinski boasts an excellent 2.97 FIP and an impressive 9.53 K/9, indicating terrible batted-ball luck.

Despite his strong peripheral metrics, Mlodzinski is averaging just 4.86 innings per start over his last 10 appearances. This will put the Pittsburgh bullpen, missing key relief arms, to the test. The Cardinals rank seventh in the league in home average exit velocity (89.1 mph). They are positioned to capitalize on a pitching staff that has struggled with traffic.

Pittsburgh has also struggled significantly when playing from behind the odds. They have posted a 33.3% win rate as the outright underdog this season. In their last 10 games, Pittsburgh has failed to win a single contest as an underdog, going 0-4 in those matchups.

Pirates vs Cardinals Odds

Odds as of May 20, 2026, at 2:42 PM ET from BetMGM, Bet365 and DraftKings

MLB odds have St. Louis entering tonight’s matchup as a moderate home favorite, priced at -118 on the moneyline. The visiting Pirates sit at (-102) to pull off the road victory. In the runline market, backing St. Louis to win by multiple runs offers an attractive +175 payout.

The overall game total opened at 7.5 runs and has held steady, with no line movement. However, the runline has experienced a dramatic shift. St. Louis originally opened as a +1.5 run underdog (-195). Since the opening numbers were released, the market has completely flipped. This drastic adjustment can be directly attributed to overwhelming public backing.

Pirates vs Cardinals Betting Splits

Analyzing where the MLB public betting percentages are leaning provides critical context before locking in your final wagers. A commanding 84% of the money is riding on St. Louis to win outright, accompanied by 79% of the betting tickets. This significant concentration of cash aligns perfectly with my official prediction.

The confidence in St. Louis extends even further into the runline market. An overwhelming 88% of the money is backing them to cover the spread. Because the vast majority of both the money and the tickets are heavily concentrated on the same side, there is no sharp vs public divide.

The total runs market is where my betting preview diverges from the current public consensus. The Over is proving to be incredibly popular, commanding 82% of the tickets and 74% of the total money.

As noted in my analysis, McGreevy has been exceptionally dominant at limiting opposing offenses. While the public is aggressively hammering the Over, my recommendation to play the Under operates as a strong contrarian play.

Pirates vs Cardinals Injury Reports

Pittsburgh enters tonight missing a pair of position players who could have sparked their sluggish road offense. With Ryan O’Hearn and Joey Bart sidelined, they are deprived of crucial depth. This places more pressure on the top of their lineup to manufacture runs on the basepaths. These injuries may affect MLB starting lineups.

The absence of Chris Devenski from the bullpen is a massive storyline for live bettors. Mlodzinski has struggled to pitch deep into games, and missing a reliable relief arm could spell disaster for Pittsburgh.

St. Louis is monitoring the health of starting shortstop Masyn Winn, who exited their May 17 game with left calf tightness. If Winn is unable to go, they will have to shuffle their middle infield, potentially weakening defensive efficiency.