Guardians vs Phillies Expert Picks & Props to Target (May 23)

• The Phillies are -195 moneyline favorites over the Guardians this afternoon
• Cleveland starter Slade Cecconi is struggling with a 1.49 WHIP and .286 opponent batting average this season
• Keep reading for the Guardians vs Phillies expert picks and props to target on May 23

The Philadelphia Phillies (25-26) and Cleveland Guardians (31-22) continue their series at Citizens Bank Park this afternoon at 4:05 pm ET, after the Guardians secured a 1-0 victory yesterday behind a late Kyle Manzardo home run.

The Phillies played clean defense but could not generate offense at the plate en route to a third straight defeat. Online sportsbooks expect them to buck that trend today in the MLB odds, pegging them as -195 moneyline favorites. That’s a sentiment I agree with, and I’ll also be targeting under 7.5 runs.

Keep reading for my favorite Guardians vs Phillies expert picks and props to target on May 23, below.

Guardians vs Phillies Expert Picks

Moneyline Pick: Phillies (-195 at BetMGM)

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The pitching disparity heavily favors the home team this afternoon. Zack Wheeler boasts a 1.99 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP over 31.2 innings. Countering for the Guardians is Slade Cecconi, who carries a 5.16 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP through 52.1 innings.

Backing the favorite outright is an easy bet to make. Wheeler should neutralize the opposing lineup, while the offense exploits Cecconi’s susceptibility to contact.

Over/Under Pick: Under 7.5 (-120 at BetMGM)

With Wheeler on the mound, runs will be scarce even at a park that is top-5 for offenses according to the MLB park factors. The Phillies are looking to bounce back from a shutout, but they face a pitching staff carrying a 3.60 team ERA. I expect a lower-scoring affair that keeps the total Under 7.5 runs.

Zack Wheeler vs Slade Cecconi

Wheeler is 5-0 this season with a 2.37 FIP, confirming his 1.99 ERA is legitimate. He holds opponents to a .189 batting average and averages 6.33 innings over his recent starts.

Cecconi is 4-6 with an inflated 5.16 ERA. Opponents are batting .286 against him. His 1.49 WHIP indicates frequent traffic on the basepaths, making this a tough situational spot against a powerful lineup.

Guardians vs Phillies Team Statistics

A stark contrast exists in how these offenses manufacture runs per the MLB starting lineups. The Phillies rely on power at Citizens Bank Park, slugging 1.39 home runs per game to rank third in baseball. Their lineup boasts an 89.0 mph average exit velocity.

The Guardians manufacture runs on the basepaths, stealing 1.04 bases per road game. They rank fourth in the majors in steals despite a lower .228 batting average and 87.5 mph exit velocity.

From a pitching perspective, the Guardians hold an edge in overall run prevention with a 3.60 team ERA. However, Wheeler’s individual dominance negates their typical team-wide advantage for this specific contest.

Guardians vs Phillies Odds

Odds as of May 23. Claim the BetMGM promo code to bet on the Guardians vs Phillies today.

Guardians vs Phillies Props to Target

• Slade Cecconi Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-139 at at DraftKings)

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Switching over to the MLB props market, where I’m also betting under 4.5 strikeouts for Cecconi. The Cleveland hurler boasts a pedestrian 7.22 K/9 rate, while barely averaging over 5 innings per start. He’s failed to clear this line in six of his past eight per the MLB batter vs pitcher stats, and should come up short again today.