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Best Home Run Bets Today – Five Picks for Saturday, May 23
By Ryan Potts in MLB Baseball
Published:
- Today’s slate begins in Cincinnati – the first of a doubleheader
- Expect several home runs in Nationals vs Braves
- Continue reading for my five best home run bets today
Few bets in sports are more exhilarating than a home run bet. A player can be quiet for multiple at-bats, then launch a bet-winning blast into the bleachers. As the weather continues to warm, I expect home runs to come early and often today and through the rest of the spring and into the summer.
Keep reading for my five best home run bets today.
Top Home Run Bets – May 23
HR Pick 1: Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (23¢)
Olson is mired in a slump at the moment – he has a .506 OPS with one home run in the last 14 days. That said, getting Olson at 23¢ value is hard to pass up. He has been a better hitter away from home, but he has still slugged four of his 14 home runs at Truist Park.
In 18 at-bats versus Jake Irvin, Olson is hitting .22 with a .819 OPS and two home runs. However, those home runs came in two of Olson’s last three at-bats versus Irvin. He homered on September 16 of 2025 and April 20 of this year. Irvin is allowing 1.4 home runs per 9, worse than the MLB average.
HR Pick 2: James Wood to Hit a Home Run (21¢)
Staying in the Nationals vs Braves matchup, I am also backing James Wood to go yard. Wood has already slugged three home runs in five games versus Atlanta this season. While he did not face Grant Holmes in that matchup, he has tattooed Braves pitching so far. Wood is in the 100th percentile for average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard hit rate this season.
James Wood is 1-for-3 versus Grant Holmes with a home run. All three at-bats came in a May game last season at Truist Park. Holmes is allowing 1.3 home runs per nine, and he has below-average metrics at limiting hard contact. He is in the 25th percentile for limiting hard-hit balls.
HR Pick 3: Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (15¢, 1st Game)
While the Reds and Cardinals will complete a doubleheader on Saturday, this bet only applies to the first game. I am backing the enigmatic De La Cruz to get the offense started early. The two-time All-Star has only clubbed one home run in May (May 17), but he still is among the best in baseball at notching quality contact. De La Cruz is in the 89th percentile for barrel rate and 97th percentile in average exit velocity.
In 20 at-bats against Andre Pallante, De La Cruz is hitting .250 with no home runs. Pallante is allowing 1.1 home runs per nine, right in line with the MLB average. Of De La Cruz’s 11 home runs this season, seven have come in the friendly confines of Great American Ball Park.
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HR Pick 4: Julio Rodriguez to Hit a Home Run (10¢)
Rodriguez is enjoying a strong May. He has an .870 OPS with six home runs and five doubles. Usually a cold starter, Rodriguez has eight home runs on the season. While five of these have come at home (compared to on the road), Kaufmann Stadium is a more friendly hitting environment than T-Mobile Park.
Rodriguez is 2-for-6 lifetime versus Stephen Kolek. He has yet to muster even an extra-base hit against him. However, Kolek is one of the more homer-prone pitchers in MLB, allowing 1.6 home runs per nine. Kolek is below average in terms of missing barrels and preventing hard-hit balls.
HR Pick 5: Fernando Tatis Jr to Hit a Home Run (13¢)
It’s time. In 183 at-bats this season, Fernando Tatis Jr. has inexplicably not hit a home run. He has tremendous underlying metrics – particularly a 97th-percentile hard-hit rate, but he has a career-worst 54.4% groundball rate. Today is the day that he lifts off for the first time – likely the first of 20 home runs for the season.
J.T. Ginn is coming off an exceptional, but losing, outing against the Angels. The last pitch he threw became a Zach Neto walk-off home run. Ginn has been average at limiting home runs, posting a 1.1 home runs per nine. He does a solid job of limiting hard contact, surrendering just a 6.4% barrel rate (62nd percentile).
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Ryan Potts is a veteran football and baseball content creator. He was previously a credentialed NFL media member, covering the draft, combine, and Super Bowl. He has been featured on Atlanta sports talk radio and Arizona student radio. Ryan is a journalism graduate from the University of Arizona.
