Thunder vs Spurs Player Props & Picks for Game 4

• Game 4 of the Thunder vs Spurs Western Conference Final goes down tonight
• Backing Alex Caruso to clear his 10.5-point prop offers tremendous value given his massive spike in playoff shooting efficiency
• See my favorite Thunder vs Spurs player props and picks for Game 4, below

Fresh off back-to-back wins, the defending champion Thunder will look to take a 3-1 series lead tonight when they visit the Spurs. Online sportsbooks don’t like their chances however, pegging San Antonio as small favorites in the latest NBA odds. Personally, I’ll be avoiding the spread and total markets all together, and will get my action on player props.

After sitting out Game 3, there’s a chance OKC star Jalen Williams has to miss Game 4 as well. That should open up more secondary scoring opportunity for names like Alex Caruso, who I’m bullish on in this matchup.

Below, you’ll find my favorite Thunder vs Spurs player props and picks for Game 4, and the reasoning behind each selection.

Thunder vs Spurs Player Prop Odds for Game 4

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Williams’ status remains day-to-day according to the NBA starting lineups. If he plays, soft tissue injuries often carry the risk of in-game setbacks or strict minute restrictions, leaving the door open for Caruso to rack up more playing time.

As a result, my top bet tonight in this clash of top NBA Championship odds contenders, is over 10.5 points for Caruso. I’ll also be backing the Spurs Stephon Castle to eclipse 6.5 assists, as that’s a line he’s cleared comfortably in every game of the Western Conference Final so far.

Thunder vs Spurs Player Prop Picks for Game 4

• Alex Caruso OVER 10.5 Points (-118 at Bet365)
• Stephon Castle OVER 6.5 Assists (-130 at DraftKings)

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During the regular season, Caruso’s scoring production had seemingly fallen off a cliff, as he averaged a modest 6.2 points per game overall and just 5.2 points in away matchups. However, his offensive volume and efficiency have skyrocketed in the playoffs, making his 10.5-point prop incredibly appealing.

In this series, Caruso has lit the lamp for 63 points over three games, equating to a staggering 21.0 points per contest. Caruso is 3-0 against a closing line of 10.5 points in the Western Conference Final, representing a pristine 100% success rate that far exceeds our profitable threshold.

He boasts an elite 82.0% Effective Field Goal Percentage in this matchup, shooting 20-for-33 (60.6%) from the floor and 14-for-23 (60.8%) from beyond the arc. Averaging 15.6 points over his last five playoff games, he’s the top value tonight in our NBA player prop analyzer.

San Antonio’s halfcourt offense hums when Castle is facilitating, and oddsmakers are still lagging behind his actual production. During the regular season, Castle established his comfort level at home by averaging 7.7 assists per game. That playmaking has only elevated under the bright lights of the playoffs.

Through three games in this series, Castle has distributed 26 total assists, translating to a phenomenal 8.6 assists per contest. Castle has gone over this 6.5-assist prop line in 3 of 4 home playoff games this season, showing a highly reliable 75% hit rate in this specific building.

This pick is further backed by a glaring situational trend: Oklahoma City has shown serious vulnerability to opponent ball movement on the road. In five away postseason games, the Thunder have allowed opponents to average a bloated 24.8 assists per game. Coupled with a massive 25.48% usage rate in this series, Castle’s recent baseline validates the over.