French Open Pick, Predictions & Best Bets Today (May 28)
By Sascha Paruk in Tennis
Published:
- See the most-actionable betting angles for today’s French Open matchup.
- Jannik Sinner stares down another double-digit game spread
- Check out my French Open picks, predictions, and best bets on May 28
The 2026 French Open continues in Paris on Thursday with a thrilling slate of Round of 64 matchups. The action on the Parisian clay kicks off at 5:00 am ET, building up to a highly anticipated final showdown between Arthur Rinderknech and Matteo Berrettini starting at 2:15 pm ET. No. 1 Jannik Sinner is also in action as a massive favorite against Juan Manuel Cerundolo. Other heavy hitters like Ben Shelton, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Stefanos Tsitsipas look to dictate pace and secure quick finishes against outmatched opponents.
For those hunting for value in tighter counter-striking dynamics, the clash between Hubert Hurkacz and Frances Tiafoe presents a fascinating stylistic matchup. Below, I will break down my top match predictions. First, the odds for Thursday’s round of 64 matches on the men’s side.
2026 French Open Odds for May 28
- Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini: Rinderknech 50.7% Win Probability / Berrettini 49.3% Win Probability
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga: Auger-Aliassime -275 / Burruchaga +220 | Spread: 4.5 | Total: 36.5
- Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima: Van Assche 31.1% Win Probability / Nakashima 68.9% Win Probability
- Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: Arnaldi +138 / Tsitsipas -175 | Spread: 3.5 | Total: 37.5
- Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton: Collignon +150 / Shelton -188 | Spread: 2.5 | Total: 40.5
- Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi: Comesana +240 / Darderi -300 | Spread: 4.5 | Total: 37.5
- Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot: Tabilo -200 / Vacherot +163 | Spread: 4.5 | Total: 36.5
- Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe: Hurkacz -150 / Tiafoe +120 | Spread: 1.5 | Total: 41.5
- Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston: Francisco Cerundolo -1000 / Gaston +600 | Spread: 7.5 | Total: 32.5
- Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva: Landaluce +110 / Kopriva -138 | Spread: 1.5 | Total: 37.5
- Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo: Sinner -10000 / Juan Manuel Cerundolo +2500 | Spread: 10.5 | Total: 26.5
- Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria: Struff +130 / Faria -163 | Spread: 3.5 | Total: 37.5
- Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Moise Kouame: Vallejo -351 / Kouame +275 | Spread: 6.5 | Total: 34.5
- Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Learner Tien: Diaz Acosta +250 / Tien -333 | Spread: 5.5 | Total: 35.5
- Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu: Cobolli -351 / Wu +275 | Spread: 5.5 | Total: 35.5
- Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton: Svajda 52.4% Win Probability / Walton 47.6% Win Probability
Odds as of 9:01 pm ET at bet365. Check out the outright markets at SBD’s French Open Odds Tracker.
While comprehensive ticket counts are still taking shape, early sharp action is already showing its hand at the sportsbooks. Jannik Sinner enters as a heavy favorite, with models anticipating a ruthless baseline assault. Similarly, the Over 41.5 in the Hurkacz vs Tiafoe matchup has seen significant movement from opening, caused by sharp bettors expecting a prolonged striking battle with plenty of extended rallies. Finally, Francisco Cerundolo – who boasts a massive 89.4% win probability against crowd favorite Hugo Gaston – is drawing overwhelming public money, forcing books to rapidly adjust his steep -7.5 game spread.
French Open Predictions, Picks & Best Bets for May 28
“Best Odds” as of 9:01 pm ET.
Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini Pick: Rinderknech Moneyline (-104 at Kalshi)
Rinderknech enters this matchup as a -104 favorite. I am isolating Rinderknech here because of his dominant first-round form on the Parisian clay. The 22nd seed dispatched qualifier Jurij Rodionov 7-6(7-5), 6-2, 6-3 in convincing straight sets, winning 18 of 29 total games (62%) and 54% of all points played (99/183).
Rinderknech was lethal from the baseline – blasting 42 winners against just 32 unforced errors while firing nine aces and winning 78% of his first-serve points (42/54). He won 86% of his service games (12/14) and broke Rodionovsix times on 16 opportunities, demonstrating elite return pressure that will be critical against Berrettini’s powerful serve.
His 68% net point conversion rate (28/41) also showcases an aggressive, all-court game that can disrupt Berrettini’s rhythm. The historical data and stylistic clash on clay heavily favor the Frenchman’s ability to drag Berrettini into deep rallies and secure the victory.
Jannik Sinner vs JM Cerundolo Pick: Sinner -10.5 Games (-104 at Kalshi)
With an astronomical 98.0% analytical win probability, backing Sinner on the moneyline at -10000 provides zero return on investment. Instead, I am laying the 10.5 games. The world number-one is positioned to deliver a devastating performance against Juan Manuel Cerundolo. Sinner already demonstrated his ruthless form in the first round, dismantling wild card Clement Tabur 6-1, 6-3, 6-4 – winning 18 of 26 total games and 61% of all points played (100/165). In that match, Sinner hammered 40 winners to Tabur’s 20, fired 8 aces, and won 80% of his first-serve points while converting 5 of 13 break point opportunities.
Meanwhile, Cerundolo won in straight sets in his first-round clash against Jack Fearnley, but needed tiebreaks in two of three sets to escape with a 6-2, 7-6(0), 7-6(7) victory. Cerundolo managed just 28 winners against 27 unforced errors, won only 57% of total points (127/224), and was broken four times while saving 6-of-8 break points faced. His 56% total games won rate (18/32) against a lower-ranked opponent like Fearnley paints a picture of a player who will be overwhelmed by Sinner’s elite level.
The contrast in first-round performances is stark – Sinner cruised through in dominant fashion while Cerundolo labored through extended tiebreaks. The data establishes a distinct analytical edge for Sinner in this Round of 64 matchup. Cerundolo simply lacks the weapons to disrupt Sinner’s aggressive forehand, making this -10.5 spread highly actionable despite the large number. Sinner will dictate the pace from the opening game and efficiently break down his opponent’s serve.
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Moise Kouame Pick: Under 34.5 Games (-108 at Kalshi)
My models establish a massive 75.7% win probability for Adolfo Daniel Vallejo. While his -351 moneyline price is far too steeped in juice to play straight up, targeting under 34.5 total games is the sharpest angle on the board. Vallejo already demonstrated his ability to end matches early in the first round, dispatching 20th seed Cameron Norrie 7-6(9-7), 2-0 ret. after the Brit retired trailing a set and a break. In just 14 total games played, Vallejo won eight (57%) and claimed 54% of total points (56/104).
He was utterly dominant on serve – winning 100% of his service games (7/7), firing five aces, and converting 83% of first-serve points (25/30). On the return side, Vallejo broke Norrie once while saving the only break point he faced (1/1), recording 19 winners against 21 unforced errors. The fact that Norrie – a top-20 seed – could not sustain physical or tactical resistance beyond 14 games against Vallejo speaks volumes about the Paraguayan’s ability to impose his will quickly.
On the other side of the net, wild card Moise Kouame impressed in his first-round upset of former Grand Slam champion Marin Cilic, winning 7-6(7-4), 6-2, 6-1 in straight sets. Kouame won 18 of 27 total games (67%) and 58% of total points (112/193), recording 28 winners against 34 unforced errors.
Notably, Kouame was never broken – saving all seven break points he faced while winning 100% of his service games (14/14). He also converted 4-of-7 breakpoint opportunities and won 71% of his first-serve points (44/62). While Kouame’s serving dominance is worth noting, Cilic is well past his prime and the wild card’s 34 unforced errors suggest an aggressive but error-prone style that Vallejo can exploit. Against Vallejo’s suffocating serve – which Norrie, a far superior returner, could not crack – Kouame’s return game projects to be neutralized entirely. Vallejo’s projected dominance points to a swift, clinical straight-sets victory that keeps the total game count well below the 34.5 line.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
