Early UFC Freedom 250 Odds, Predictions: Topuria vs Gaethje Card Picks

• UFC Freedom 250 takes place Sunday, June 14th from the White House lawn in Washington, D.C.
• Ilia Topuria defends his lightweight title against Justin Gaethje in the main event
• Check out the early UFC Freedom 250 odds, predictions and best value below

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The UFC is doing something it’s never done before. UFC Freedom 250 goes down on the South Lawn of the White House, and the seven-fight lineup is loaded. Ilia Topuria defends his lightweight title against Justin Gaethje at the top of the bill.

The co-main is an interim heavyweight title fight between Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane. The action kicks off at 5:15 pm ET, with the main event walkout slated for around 8:15 pm ET. Here are the early UFC Freedom 250 odds and my predictions for the card.

Early UFC Freedom 250 Odds

Topuria is a -600 favorite over Gaethje in the main event. That’s an implied probability of 85.7% for the champ. The biggest favorite on the card is Ruffy at -625 over Michael Chandler. The co-main is a true pick’em with Pereira at -108 and Gane at -112, so the books see this one as a coin flip.

Odds as of June 1st at DraftKings Sportsbook. Browse our best UFC betting apps before wagering on UFC Freedom 250.

Early Topuria vs Gaethje Prediction

Topuria (17-0) has finished everyone the UFC has put in front of him. He knocked out Charles Oliveira in his lightweight debut, proving the power carried up from 145 pounds. He’s got real wrestling to go with the striking, too, averaging nearly two takedowns per fight even though he usually prefers to stand.

Gaethje (27-5) is one of the toughest fighters alive. The former interim champ brings pressure, volume, and chaos, and he just beat Paddy Pimblett with three takedowns and two knockdowns. But Gaethje absorbs a ton of damage and has been stopped before, most memorably in that last-second Max Holloway knockout.

Tale of the Tape

Gaethje is the bigger man here with a four-inch height advantage. If he can bully forward, eat clean shots, and force Topuria onto the back foot, this gets interesting. Topuria hasn’t had to fight off his back foot much in his career, aside from a brief moment when Jai Herbert wobbled him.

Still, Topuria is the faster, cleaner striker. Gaethje fights fairly flat-footed, and that’s a dangerous way to engage someone with this kind of hand speed and precision. The champ’s speed should be the difference, and he’ll likely find the chin early.

At -600, the moneyline isn’t worth it. The method of victory market is the play. Topuria by KO/TKO/DQ is priced at -200, which is a far more reasonable number given how this fight is likely to end.

• Topuria vs Gaethje Early Pick: Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO/DQ (-200 at DraftKings)

Early Pereira vs Gane Prediction

This might be the best fight on the card. Pereira and Gane are both world-class strikers, and a pick’em line means the books can’t separate them. Pereira is chasing history as a potential three-division champion.

Pereira (13-3) has absurd power and just knocked out Magomed Ankalaev in their rematch. His takedown defense has improved, and he’s added real size for his heavyweight run. The left hook is a fight-ender against anyone in any division.

Gane (13-2) is the slicker heavyweight kickboxer. His footwork is elite, his volume is high, and he lands roughly five significant strikes for every two he absorbs. He looked sharp early against Tom Aspinall, but the fight ended in a no-contest due to an eye poke.

The knock on Gane is his chin and his tendency to fade when his back hits the cage. The Frenchman got stopped by Ngannou and has shown he can be cornered. Pereira is the type of patient stalker who walks you down and makes you pay for circling. I expect the left hook to eventually land.

With the moneyline at a pick’em, the value is in the method of victory. Pereira by KO/TKO/DQ at +150 gives you plus money on how this fight likely ends.

• Pereira vs Gane Early Pick: Alex Pereira by KO/TKO/DQ (+150 at DraftKings)

Other UFC Freedom 250 Predictions

Sean O’Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi:

A likely number-one contender fight at bantamweight. O’Malley is the former champ with elite accuracy, real power, and a diverse kick-and-spinning attack game. He’s coming off a clear decision win over Song Yadong.

Zahabi is on a seven-fight win streak and has quietly become a problem, but he’s been dropped in each of his last two fights. He hasn’t completed a UFC takedown since 2019, so this stays standing.

O’Malley is the sharper, more powerful striker, and his reach should let him control the range for a decision. The -395 moneyline is steep, so the method of victory props are the better play.

• Pick: Sean O’Malley by Decision (price TBD)

Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler:

Ruffy is the biggest favorite on the card at -625, and it’s a brutal spot for Chandler. The Brazilian has 13 wins with 12 stoppages.

Ruffy is a creative striker with heavy hands, kicks up the middle, and spinning attacks. He carries his power late, too, including a second-round knockout of Rafael Fiziev.

Chandler is 40 now and has become a brawler chasing bonuses rather than a wrestler chasing wins. He’s coming off a TKO loss to Paddy Pimblett and tends to make reckless decisions in the cage.

Ruffy is faster and sharper, and that’s a bad way for Chandler to engage him. The Brazilian should find the finish here. The -625 moneyline is best used as a parlay anchor.

• Pick: Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO (price TBD)

Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis:

Hokit earned this spot by beating Curtis Blaydes in a wild 15-minute slugfest with Trump cageside. He’s a two-sport collegiate athlete, a wrestling All-American who also played at the NFL level, and he fights with zero quit. His hips and shot entries are excellent.

Lewis is the UFC’s all-time knockout king, but he either knocks you out or he loses. He rarely wins minutes and tends to shell up once he realizes the early finish isn’t coming, like he did against Waldo Cortes-Acosta.

Hokit should eat Lewis’s best shot, keep coming, and grind out a decision once the veteran fades. This is one of the safer favorites on the card.

• Pick: Josh Hokit (-345)

Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus:

Nickal is an elite NCAA wrestler who has ported his grappling into MMA and is starting to trust his striking more, shown by the head-kick knockout of Rodolfo Vieira. He only has nine pro fights but he’s already facing solid competition.

Daukaus is a good grappler with long limbs and an 82% takedown defense, but he’s chinny and his recent wins came against beatable opponents. Nickal’s wrestling and emerging striking should be too much.

Once Nickal closes distance and gets the fight to the mat, his top control takes over. I expect a submission.

• Pick: Bo Nickal by Submission (price TBD)

Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia:

One of the trickier fights to call on the card. Lopes is dangerous everywhere with powerful hands and a strong grappling base, but he’s coming off a flat performance in his title shot against Alexander Volkanovski. The White House stage is another huge moment, and whether he shows up matters here.

Garcia is a pressure fighter on a seven-fight win streak with six knockouts. Big for the division and awkward to read, the Mean Machine should edge the early striking exchanges.

But if Lopes drags this into the later rounds and starts wrestling and scrambling, that’s where the Brazilian shines. Lopes is the pick, but Garcia is a live underdog.

• Pick: Diego Lopes (-162)

UFC Freedom 250 Early Value

The best value on the card is Pereira by KO/TKO/DQ at +150 in the co-main. We’re backing Pereira at essentially even money on the moneyline, so plus money on his path to a finish is a great spot. His left hook ends fights, and Gane’s chin has been cracked before.

Topuria by KO/TKO/DQ at -200 is the other main event play, since laying -600 on the moneyline makes no sense. Josh Hokit at -345 is one of the more confident spots on the card given Lewis’s tendency to fade. Those are your best early UFC Freedom 250 bets.