Cubs vs Mets Picks & Player Props to Bet on Jun 22

• Will you be backing the Chicago Cubs behind Shota Imanaga’s elite 1.06 WHIP as they visit the New York Mets?
• Kodai Senga’s 9.00 ERA offers immense value on the Over 8.5 total runs
• It’s important that you keep reading to see the latest odds, predictions, and picks for this National League matchup

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The Chicago Cubs open a fresh series against the New York Mets at Citi Field on Monday, June 22, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM ET. The Cubs step up to the plate as road favorites despite dropping their previous matchup 5-1 to the San Francisco Giants.

Meanwhile, the home underdog Mets look to build on the momentum of an 8-1 victory over the Atlanta Braves, a win punctuated by home runs from A.J. Ewing and Marcus Semien.

Chicago arrives with a 40-37 record, hoping to assert their position against a 34-43 New York squad that has struggled with consistency. With an exciting probable pitching duel between Shota Imanaga and Kodai Senga on tap, bettors have a fascinating matchup to dissect.

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

When evaluating this starting-pitching matchup, I see tremendous value in the Cubs Moneyline (-125 at Caesars Sportsbook). Shota Imanaga takes the mound boasting a 4.26 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP across 86.2 innings, demonstrating a consistent ability to limit base runners.

On the other side, Kodai Senga has struggled severely for the Mets. Senga carries a bloated 9.00 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP over 24.0 innings. With the visitors holding a superior record, Chicago possesses the clear rotational edge to secure the road victory.

Given those same pitching metrics, my prediction for the total is Over 8.5 Runs (-120 at Bet365). Senga’s astronomical ERA provides a ripe environment for Chicago’s offense to plate runs early and often.

Leading with the data, here are my top player prop bets for tonight:

• Nico Hoerner Over 0.5 Hits (-200 at BetMGM): Hoerner has exceeded 0.5 hits in nine of his last 11 road games (82.0% success rate).
• Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings): Imanaga has eclipsed this mark in 18 of his last 27 games (67.0%). Grabbing this at plus-money offers outstanding value.
• Ian Happ Over 0.5 Total Bases (-148 at Caesars Sportsbook): Happ is riding a hot streak, having exceeded 0.5 total bases in four straight games.

Odds as of June 22 2026, at 2:00 PM ET from BetMGM, Bet365, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Statistical Mismatches

The most prominent mismatch tonight lies in run production. Chicago generates 4.70 runs per game and logs a .714 road OPS. They stack up favorably against a Mets squad producing just 4.39 runs per game with a meager .685 OPS at Citi Field.

This offensive disparity highlights exactly why Happ and Hoerner are in favorable spots to cash their props. Hoerner’s excellent road contact skills pair perfectly against a New York pitching staff that allows a 1.28 WHIP. With Seiya Suzuki providing depth, Chicago is equipped to apply persistent pressure. Make sure you check out our MLB batter vs pitchers stats before you place any bets.

Despite their lackluster record and bottom-tier home OPS, New York does generate quality contact, evidenced by an 88.6 mph average exit velocity. Talents like Juan Soto and Semien remain ever-dangerous, though sequence and consistency have plagued the lineup all year.

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Odds & Betting Splits

Odds as of June 22 2026, at 2:05 PM ET from Bet365, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings

Chicago steps onto the field as a clear road favorite, requiring bettors to lay juice to win outright. New York sits at +105 as a home underdog. Since the MLB odds markets opened, I have noted massive movement driven by one-sided betting splits.

The visitors originally opened at -115 on the moneyline. Immense public backing has pushed their price to -125. Early MLB public betting percentages shows 90% of the moneyline cash is tied to Chicago. A similar story has unfolded on the runline, where 95% of the handle expects a multi-run victory.

The total runs market also experienced a notable price shift. Both sides opened at flat -110 odds, but the juice on the Over spiked to -120. A staggering 93% of the overall stake actively backs the Over, capitalizing on the pitching mismatch highlighted by Senga’s early-season struggles.

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Injury Report

Injuries play a massive role in how both rosters are constructed. Evaluating the injured list provides crucial context for tonight’s game plan, explaining New York’s offensive inconsistencies and the heavy workload placed on Chicago’s rotation.

The absence of superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor and centerfielder Luis Robert Jr cannot be overstated. Without Lindor’s switch-hitting and Robert’s power-speed combination, New York must rely disproportionately on Soto and Semien. This lack of depth severely limits late-game tactical options. Some of these injuries might also impact MLB starting lineups.

On the other hand, Chicago is dealing with pitching injuries, making tonight’s starting assignment critical. With Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon sidelined, they desperately need length from Imanaga. Fortunately, he is a reliable innings-eater. My game plan analysis suggests he will attack the strike zone early to preserve the bullpen.