Paraguay vs Australia Odds, Picks & Goalscorer Predictions

• Paraguay faces Australia at the World Cup this evening in Group D action
• Paraguay’s attack will struggle heavily without suspended playmaker Miguel Almiron
• Check out the Paraguay vs Australia odds, picks and goalscorer predictions, below

Paraguay and Australia clash at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium in Santa Clara tonight at 10:00 p.m. ET in FIFA World Cup action. Both squads sit on three points heading into this decisive Group D finale.

With the USA already locking up the group, the playoff math is incredibly forgiving. A draw likely punches a knockout ticket in the printable World Cup bracket for both the South Americans and the Socceroos. I am looking at a fascinating betting board for a match where neither side needs to force the issue.

Paraguay enters as the slight betting favorite in the World Cup game odds, but they must navigate without suspended star playmaker Miguel Almiron. Meanwhile, an underdog Australia side will look to veteran goalkeeper Mathew Ryan to anchor a disciplined defensive shape.

Keep reading for the Paraguay vs Australia odds, picks and goalscorer predictions, below.

Paraguay vs Australia Odds

Prices from Kalshi on June 25, 2026. Get the Kalshi referral code to score a bonus to bet on the World Cup.

The traditional betting odds reflect a unique group-stage finale where the draw is heavily favored. At +120, a stalemate is currently the most probable outcome on the moneyline. This is a rarity in international soccer that underscores how beneficial a point is for both nations.

If you are looking at potential payouts on Kalshi, a $10 position on Paraguay at 34¢ would return about $29.40 total ($19.40 in profit) if Paraguay wins. The same $10 on Australia at 25¢ would return $40.00 total ($30.00 in profit), while a $10 Tie (Yes) position at 44¢ would return about $22.70 total ($12.70 in profit) if the match ends level.

As always, before making any wager on this tournament, check out the World Cup betting apps to shop for the best lines.

Paraguay vs Australia Picks & Goalscorer Predictions

When evaluating this Group D finale, the underlying metrics paint a picture of two teams that fundamentally struggle to dictate the tempo. Neither side wants to hold the ball, and neither side has shown the attacking teeth required to break open a defensive block.

Here are my favorite wagers for this matchup.

My 3-Way Moneyline Pick: Draw (Kalshi 44¢ / +127)

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3-Way ML Pick

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Full-Time Draw

44%

Predict

While the situational math already makes a mutually beneficial draw an incredibly likely scenario, the on-field statistics reinforce a stalemate. Paraguay’s defensive approach often skirts the line of excessive aggression, leading to disciplinary issues. They have already accrued six yellow cards and a red card.

Without Almiron available, Paraguay’s ability to transition from defense to attack is severely handicapped. Australia is solid but unspectacular defensively, conceding just twice while limiting high-quality chances against them.

My Total Goals Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (Kalshi 72¢ / -257)

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O/U Pick

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Under 2.5 Goals

72%

Predict

When two extremely low-possession teams clash, matches routinely devolve into midfield slogs. Both squads hold the ball for less than 38% of their matches. The lack of ball control has directly resulted in anemic final-third production and plummeting World Cup winner odds.

Australia has generated a mere 13 total shots across two matches. Paraguay has been equally passive, producing just 14 total shots. Even more concerning, they have earned exactly one corner kick in the entire tournament. I am playing Kalshi’s “No” contract on Over 2.5 goals at 72¢, which translates to -257 odds.

To understand exactly why I am projecting a low-event match, you only need to look at how these two nations stack up statistically. Through two group-stage matches, they have proven to be two of the most offensively limited teams in the tournament.

Paraguay vs Australia Stats

The overarching theme in these numbers is shared offensive futility. Both squads rank in the bottom ten of the tournament in total shots, shots on target, and possession share.

Australia holds a distinct defensive advantage. The Socceroos concede just 1 goal per game and maintain an organized shape. Paraguay leaks 2 goals per game and relies on aggressive, often reckless tackling to break up opposing attacks. These metrics scream stalemate.

Anytime Goalscorer Pick: Connor Metcalfe (+750 via bet365)

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My favorite types of World Cup prop bets are in the goalscorer market, and if the game does break open, Australian midfielder Connor Metcalfe provides drastic mispricing value. Metcalfe is already responsible for half of Australia’s scoring output in this tournament. Despite this, you can find a +750 line on him to find the net at anytime.

Paraguay’s physical, low-block defensive shape will force Australia to rely on secondary runs from the midfield. Metcalfe fits this profile perfectly. The +750 price tag offers excellent implied probability value for a player who has already proven he can convert limited touches into goals.

Paraguay vs Australia Injury Report

As both teams prepare for a finale where a draw safely pushes them through, the injury and disciplinary reports provide even less incentive to attack. Both squads are dealing with significant absences in the final third.

• Miguel Almiron (Paraguay): Suspended.
• Gustavo Caballero (Paraguay): Doubtful (Injury).
• Ramon Sosa (Paraguay): Doubtful (Injury).
• Mathew Leckie (Australia): Doubtful (Injury).

The most consequential absence on the pitch will be Almiron. The dynamic midfielder operates as the central engine for his squad’s transitional play. Without him, their ability to turn defensive stops into quick, threatening counter-attacks has completely fallen off a cliff.

For the Socceroos, the primary concern revolves around veteran forward Leckie. His potential absence removes a crucial layer of experience and tactical flexibility. These missing pieces strongly reinforce my Under 2.5 Goals prediction.