UFC Baku Picks, Predictions & Odds for Saturday’s Main Card | Fiziev vs Torres

• Rafael Fiziev faces Manuel Torres in Saturday’s UFC Baku main event, a lightweight clash with real stakes in the 155-pound rankings
• The market has the main event as a near pick ’em, but the value lies in striking metrics and stylistic mismatches across the card
• See my full UFC Baku predictions, picks and best bets for every main card fight, including Fiziev vs Torres

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The UFC touches down at the National Gymnastics Arena in Baku, Azerbaijan, this Saturday, June 27, 2026, for a Fight Night card built for bettors who read the data. The action starts early, with the opening bout walking out at 9:00 AM ET and building toward a lightweight main event at approximately 1:40 PM ET.

There is no title on the line, but the main event between No. 11-ranked lightweight Rafael Fiziev and No. 15-ranked Manuel Torres carries real ranking implications. The market is treating this as a near pick ’em, with the betting lines telling a story of rising hype colliding with battle-tested experience.

If you want to beat the books on Saturday, you have to look past the mainstream narratives. We’re leaning on situational grappling trends, knockout ratios, and opponent-quality metrics to find the true value. Here is exactly how I am playing Saturday’s UFC Baku main card.

UFC Baku Odds: Fiziev vs Torres Main Card

Odds as of June 26 at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Baku on Saturday.

Sharabutdin Magomedov (-395) and Ikram Aliskerov (-305) headline the main card odds as the two heaviest favorites on the board, while the main event between Fiziev and Torres sits at a near pick ’em. The moneyline implies roughly a 48.5 percent vig-free win probability for Fiziev against 51.5 percent for Torres, so there is little margin between them on paper.

Before locking anything in, compare numbers across the best books to make sure you are getting the best available price.

UFC Baku Predictions & Best Bets

Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres Prediction

• UFC Baku Pick #1: Rafael Fiziev Moneyline (-108 at DraftKings)

The public sees Fiziev’s 1-4 slide in his last five appearances and immediately looks to fade him. The reality is, all four of those losses came against elite, top-10 competition, and one was directly caused by a freak knee injury in a fight he was winning. Fiziev is a world-class counter-striker who feasts on pressure fighters, a dynamic he proved in his recent win over Ignacio Bahamondes.

Torres brings an aggressive style and a 17-3 record, but the underlying data is a massive red flag. “El Loco” has never been out of the first round in his UFC tenure and has a suspect chin. When Torres marches forward to close the distance, he is going to walk straight into the wood chipper.

The striking numbers heavily favor Torres on paper, but the gap in quality of competition is vast. The last time Torres faced a top-tier striker with superior defense, he was outclassed by Bahamondes, who dusted him in one round.

At -108, the market is offering a considerable discount on Fiziev’s veteran pedigree.

Best Bet: Shara Magomedov vs. Michel Pereira

• UFC Baku Pick #2: Sharabutdin Magomedov by KO/TKO (+135 at DraftKings)

This middleweight co-main event is a classic stylistic clash, but the numbers heavily favor “Shara Bullet.” Magomedov (16-1) is arguably the trickiest and most voluminous striker in the division. Pereira has been out-struck in his last four consecutive outings and is notoriously prone to gassing out.

After 48 professional fights, the Brazilian’s gas tank is clearly running on empty. While Pereira has historically had success with his grappling, the veteran’s career-high single-fight control time sits at a measly 2:47. Pereira does not have the sustained wrestling output to consistently neutralize Magomedov on the mat, meaning he will be forced to stand and trade. Back Shara to find the chin and secure the finish at plus-money.

Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo Prediction

• UFC Baku Pick #3: Nazim Sadykhov by KO/TKO or SUB (+120 at DraftKings)

Sadykhov is an elite striker who operates with questionable defense, but he consistently gets away with it against wide, looping strikers like Camilo. With only one career decision win to his name, Sadykhov is a pure finisher.

Camilo might try to exploit Sadykhov’s defensive gaps by shooting for the legs — he has landed seven takedowns across his two UFC fights. However, Sadykhov is much better on the mat than the market respects. The success Fares Ziam just had against him is not historically part of Camilo’s arsenal.

Whether it ends on the feet or via club-and-sub, Sadykhov inside the distance at +120 is the sharp play here. Sadykhov won two Fight Night bonuses with a second-round knockout of Nikolas Motta the last time he fought in Azerbaijan.

Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson Prediction

• UFC Baku Pick #4: Asu Almabayev by Decision (+110 at DraftKings)

This is a pure data play. The 35-year-old Charles Johnson is stepping into the cage for his third fight in 2026 alone, and he just suffered his first career knockout loss in January. While Johnson holds a distinct height and reach advantage, his kryptonite is suffocating grappling.

Historically, Johnson is a glaring 0-4 in the UFC when his opponent lands three or more takedowns. Enter Almabayev, who averages a relentless 4.46 takedowns per 15 minutes. Almabayev will comfortably hit that metric, grinding out top control to win on the scorecards.

Best Bet: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira

• UFC Baku Pick #5: Ikram Aliskerov by KO/SUB (ITD) (-155 at DraftKings)

The physical metrics and martial arts pedigree heavily favor Ikram Aliskerov in this matchup. Ferreira packs legitimate power, but he throws with almost zero setup, banking entirely on the early blitz or catching opponents with wild counters. Aliskerov has been knocked out twice before, but only by elite, championship-caliber fighters in Khamzat Chimaev and Robert Whittaker. Both Chimaev and Whittaker set up their finishing sequences beautifully in ways that Ferreira has never done.

The worse the fight goes for Ferreira, the more he tends to lean on his Judo-style grappling. Yet, as a former Combat Sambo world champion, Aliskerov is leaps and bounds better in the grappling department and has the talent to dictate where this fight goes.

All three of Ferreira’s career losses have come by KO or submission. Aliskerov finishes him before the final horn.

Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk Prediction

• UFC Baku Pick #6: Michal Oleksiejczuk Moneyline (-118 at DraftKings)

This matchup is a fascinating tactical puzzle. Both fighters’ biggest strength plays aligns with their opponent’s weakness. Oleksiejczuk tends to punish people who stand right in front of him, landing nine knockdowns in his 18 UFC fights, but he has always struggled with grappling, which is Magomedov’s bread and butter. The Russian averages 2.61 takedowns per 15 minutes and has 12 takedowns in his last four fights.

However, Magomedov has a habit of striking first until he is forced to grapple, and tempting fate on the feet against Oleksiejczuk is a disastrous game plan. Magomedov has been hurt at various points in over half of his UFC fights.

Oleksiejczuk has seven knockouts inside the Octagon, while Magomedov has been dropped in all three of his UFC losses. Take the slight juice on Oleksiejczuk to find the chin before Magomedov can implement his wrestling.

Note that Oleksiejczuk’s recent alignment with the Fighting Nerds team gives him training rounds with middleweight contender Caio Borralho, who dominated Magomedov in 2023. Oleksiejczuk is 3-0 since joining the fan-favorite Brazilian gym.