Best Bets, Predictions & Splits for Reds vs Brewers

• Milwaukee’s elite offense matches up well against a depleted Cincinnati rotation on Thursday as they go for a series sweep
• Jacob Misiorowski and Chase Burns provide a premier strikeout duel
• Read below for the my Reds vs Brewers picks, predictions, updated odds and betting splits

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The Milwaukee Brewers will have the brooms out Thursday afternoon as they host the Cincinnati Reds.

The Brewers have beaten Cincinnati three straight to open this 4-game set, and they’ve dominated this head-to-head, taking seven in a row.

That’s part of the reason they are solid home favorites in the MLB odds.

First pitch goes this afternoon at 2:10pm ET from Oriole Park at Camden Yards, with MLB TV providing the broadcast coverage.

Reds vs Brewers Best Bets

Jacob Misiorowski Over 9.5 Strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings)
Misiorowski generates an incredible 13.27 K/9 rate. Opposing batters have struck out 803 times against this pitching staff.

Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110 at DraftKings)
Chourio is slugging .531 with 12 home runs. He makes consistent contact to exploit the few mistakes made on the mound.

Under 6.5 runs (+108 at Kalshi)
Runs will be at a premium with two sub-2.50 ERA pitchers on the mound.

CIN Reds vs MIL Brewers Prediction

• Best Bet: Brewers ML (-200 at Kalshi)

The Brewers boast a clear statistical edge over their division rivals. Milwaukee’s offense produces 5.28 runs per game at home, far outpacing Cincinnati’s 4.25 road runs.

But offense might be hard to come by, judging by today’s MLB probable pitchers.

Milwaukee features Jacob Misiorowski, who holds a 9-3 record and a microscopic 1.45 ERA. He limits opposing lineups to a .144 batting average. Over his last 10 outings, he has maintained an otherworldly 0.60 WHIP. His ability to pitch deep into games gives the home side a massive advantage.

Cincinnati relies on Chase Burns, who brings a 9-1 record and a 2.36 ERA. Burns posts an 11.00 K/9 rate, using his overpowering fastball to navigate through trouble. While his 3.17 FIP suggests slight vulnerability, his .208 opponent batting average keeps his team highly competitive.

When evaluating 2026 team metrics, Milwaukee commands a distinct advantage.

They rank second in MLB with a 3.37 team ERA and 1.18 WHIP. The Reds rank 29th with a 1.47 WHIP, allowing constant traffic on the basepaths. Milwaukee also hits .260 as a team, making them well-equipped to capitalize on any bullpen mistakes after Burns exits the game.

I am backing the home favorites on the moneyline, though Kalshi offers a unique pricing angle. Instead of laying heavy -195 juice at traditional sportsbooks, you can buy “Yes” on Milwaukee to win for 65¢ at Kalshi, translating to far more palatable odds.

Reds vs Brewers Odds & Betting Splits

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Be sure to use the BetMGM promo code to bet on Reds vs Brewers or any other MLB game. Don’t forget to review batter vs pitcher stats to better prepare you for prop bets.

The odds establish Milwaukee as a heavy home favorite, getting -188 moneyline odds at FanDuel, while betting on the Reds to win outright pays out at a cool +165 on bet365.

For runline bettors, Cincy is getting 1.5 runs, but the juice at Caesars is manageable, at -130 odds, while picking the Brew-Crew to win by at least two runs, that pays out at a cool +122 odds.

As for the total, Under bettors will want to try DraftKings, where you can find -124 odds. Over bettors will want to head back to FanDuel, where the total drops by a half run.

Looking at the MLB public betting splits, and it’s all Brewers. On the moneyline, Milwaukee is getting a whopping 91% of the vote, and 87% of money. It’s even more pronounced on the spread, where the Brewers are getting 99% of the money and 87% of the vote.

As for the total, the public is expecting plenty of runs. Over 6.5 runs is a low number already, so a hefty 80% of the money is to the Over, with 66% of all bets.