Astros vs Nationals Expert Picks & Predictions (July 8)

• The Washington Nationals are -140 favorites to take the rubber match of their 3-game set with the Astros
• Houston will start Spencer Arrighetti, while the Nats counter with lefty Foster Griffin
• Read below for the my Astros vs Nationals picks, predictions and updated odds

It’s the rubber match of a 3-game interleague set between the Houston Astros and Washington Nationals.

Washington opened the series with a monster 12-11 shootout, with Houston bouncing back on Tuesday with a 6-3 win.

Washington sends left-hander Foster Griffin to the mound, while Houston counters with right-hander Spencer Arrighetti.

This matchup presents several intriguing angles for bettors, with the hometown Nats getting love from the books, who have them as the betting favorites in the MLB odds.

First pitch goes this evening at 6:45pm ET from Nationals Park in Washington, with MLB TV providing the broadcast coverage.

Astros vs Nationals Odds

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Be sure to use the BetMGM promo code to bet on Astros vs Nationals or any other MLB game. And don’t forget to check batter vs pitcher stats for this matchup for another betting edge.

The Nationals enter this matchup as standard home favorites on the moneyline at -136 at DraftKings. The visiting Astros provide plus-money upside as +118 road underdogs, courtesy bet365.

On the runline, Washington is laying 1.5 runs with an enticing +148 payout, while the Astros are getting 1.5 runs on the spread, but those come with less enticing -170 odds.

Since the markets first opened, I have noted some significant line movement regarding the game total. The total originally opened at 8.5 runs but has since been pushed up 9.0 and has now touched 9.5 runs at FanDuel, which should be enticing to Under bettors, witha -120 payout.

Astros vs Nationals Expert Picks

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-113 on Kalshi): Alvarez sports a .313 batting average and a staggering 1.041 OPS. At 53 cents on Kalshi, backing MLB’s premier power threat to record two total bases presents exceptional value over standard sportsbook pricing. He already has 29 home runs and 67 RBIs on his ledger.

Foster Griffin Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+127 on Kalshi): Griffin boasts an elite 2.87 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 103.1 innings. The 44-cent price tag translates to a lucrative +127 payout, providing an enticing edge over the +118 offered at DraftKings.

HOU Astros vs WAS Nationals Prediction

• Best Bet: Over 8.5 runs (-127 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

Best Bets

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Kalshi

Over 8.5 Runs

56%

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases

53%

Foster Griffin Over 5.5 Strikeouts

44%

Predict

I am looking directly at the game total for my primary game pick. The Over has hit in 60.0% of both teams’ last 10 games. Furthermore, the Under has cashed in just 35.48% of Washington games for the entire 2026 season.

With both offenses showing life in Game 1, I expect fireworks tonight. I am confidently betting Over 8.5 Runs (-127 / 56¢ at Kalshi). Washington hits the ball exceptionally hard at home, generating 5.45 runs per game with an 88.5 mph average exit velocity.

The MLB probable pitchers does favor Washington, but without a sturdy bullpen, the Nats could overwork starter Foster Griffin, who has been pretty good this year.

Griffin maintains a healthy 8.71 K/9 rate. By minimizing free passes (2.26 BB/9), he works deep into games, averaging 5.67 innings over his last 10 starts. The Nationals lack starting pitching depth, meaning Griffin will be heavily relied upon to record outs.

On the other side, Spencer Arrighetti possesses raw swing-and-miss stuff (9.12 K/9) but struggles with command. His 4.38 BB/9 rate frequently puts him in trouble, inflating his ERA to 3.81. Arrighetti has posted a bloated 4.58 ERA over his last 10 appearances.