Open Championship First-Round Leader Picks & Predictions

• The Open Championship tees off Thursday, July 16, with Scottie Scheffler the defending champion
• Scheffler is the favorite to lead after 18 holes over Rory McIlroy
• Read below for five picks of mine to be leader after day one of the Open Championship

It’s the final chance for glory in 2026 for the world’s best, as the Open Championship is the last major of the year. Scottie Scheffler is the defending champion, and he heads the pack at famed Royal Birkdale Golf Club, which has undergone an extensive overhaul. The last time the Open was contested at this venue was 2017, won by Jordan Spieth. Scheffler is the favorite in the Open Championship odds to win outright, followed by McIlroy, who won the Claret Jug back in 2014.

Instead of waiting until Sunday to potentially collect our earnings, this article will explore bets that can be made that will settle at the conclusion of the first round, searching to find who will be the first-round leader after 18 holes. I’m searching for my fifth FRL winner in the last nine events (Wyndham Clark, Alex Smalley, Tom Kim, Matt McCarty) but this one will be very challenging with 156 players teeing it up.

2026 Open Championship First-Round Leader Odds

Use SBD’s odds converter to see how Kalshi prices compare to American odds. Enter the Kalshi price in the “Implied Probability” field and the “American” field will display the corresponding odds.

First-Round Weather Forecast

The weather will feature a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day, with temperatures in the mid 60’s earlier in the day, going up to high 70’s in the afternoon. The morning wave appears to have the better end of the draw, which means a lot at the Open Championship. For those playing earlier, wind gusts will only reach about eight MPH by noon, but that will creep up to 15 miles per hour for the late wave.

Keep in mind, if you’re inclined to wager on a FRL selection on a player in the afternoon, patience can be a virtue. Invariably someone will go super low in the AM, perhaps rendering most of the PM players obsolete in terms of winning a first round leader wager.

Open Championship First-Round Leader Picks & Predictions 2026

• Robert MacIntyre 2.4¢ (+4067) at Kalshi
• Ludvig Aberg 1.9¢ (+5163)
• Hideki Matsuyama 1.3 (+7592)
• Brian Harman 0.9¢ (+10111)
• Kristoffer Reitan 0.8¢ (+12400)

Prediction Markets

Open Championship - First-Round Leader Picks

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Robert MacIntyre

2%

Ludvig Aberg

1%

Hideki Matsuyama

1%

Brian Harman

1%

Kristoffer Reitan

1%

Predict

My first choice is Robert MacIntyre (7:19 am). He comes in with great form, having co-led entering the final round of last week’s Genesis Scottish Open, where he eventually tied for third. That was his second straight top-10, and the Scot was T-7th at the Open a year ago, his third career top-10 in six attempts at this tournament.

Next up is Ludvig Aberg (3:04 pm). Though he hasn’t been clicking as amazingly as he was earlier in the year (six top-8s in a seven tournament stretch), the big Swede has been T-21st or better in all three majors of 2026. That includes a T-4th at the PGA Championship, his third top-seven in a major championship.

Next I have my sights set on Hideki Matsuyama (9:25 am). He has a major in tow (2021 Masters), and ten total top-10s in the majors. Of those competing this week, Matsuyama is fourth best on the campaign in first round scoring, and has five top-20s in his career at the Open.

2026 PGA Tour First-Round Scoring Average Leaders

Claim SBD’s exclusive Polymarket sign-up bonus before trading on the Open Championship week.

POLYMARKET

Offer

T&Cs

Deposit $20 & Get a $50 Bonus at Polymarket!

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading involves high risk and may result in loss of your entire investment. See polymarket.us/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearing organization.

SIGN UP

CODE: DIME

CODE: DIME

SIGNUP OFFER

DEPOSIT $20
GET $50 BONUS

TRADE NOW

Longshot 2026 Open Championship First Round Leaders Predictions

My final two selections are serious darkhorses, but in a wager like a FRL bet, it’s inherently fairly random who is on top after 18 holes. With that in mind, I’m going with Brian Harman (10:20 am). He hasn’t had a strong season whatsoever, but something about links golf brings out the best in the lefty. He won the Open in 2023, and has racked up top-10s in three of his last four times competing at this tournament.

Finally, my longest shot is Kristoffer Reitan (2:20 pm). He doesn’t have a ton of major experience (five events), with a best being T-30th at the Open a year ago. As a longshot, however, you can do worse than him. He broke through for his maiden victory on the PGA Tour this season at the Truist Championship at Quail Hollow, and was runner-up in New Orleans with four top-10s in all. Two starts ago he was T-2nd after 18 holes at the Travelers Championship, a signature event.