Mavs vs Thunder Predictions, Picks & Odds (Jul 16)

• The Thunder are -120 favorites vs the Mavericks in NBA Summer League on Thursday
• The Thunder are the only winless team left in Summer League
• Read below for my Mavericks vs Thunder picks and predictions, plus the latest odds

The OKC Thunder (0-3) are the lone team yet to win in NBA Summer League. But the online sportsbooks like them to break the into the win column Thursday when they take on the Dallas Mavericks (1-2) at 4:00 pm ET at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas

Dallas just got its first win in Vegas vs Memphis (96-88), while OKC dropped its third straight, this time to the Nuggets (106-103), though it was easily their most-competitive effort.

Read below for my Mavericks vs Thunder picks, predictions, and updated odds.

Mavericks vs Thunder Predictions & Picks

• Mavericks ML (+127 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

Moneyline Pick

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Kalshi

Dallas to Win

44%

Predict

Perhaps the biggest reason why the books sense an OKC breakthrough is because Dallas top pick Morez Johnson Jr (9th overall) — the 13th-favorite in the 2027 NBA Rookie of the Year odds — is considered highly unlikely to play as he’s dealing with a sore calf.

That doesn’t mean the cupboard is bare though. Dallas may have unearthed a gem with the 25th pick, Spanish phenom Sergio De Larrea.

With Johnson out against Memphis, De Larrea was the centrepiece of the Mavs’ attack, finishing with 16 points and 12 assists in 30 minutes. He should be in the mix for playing time behind Kyrie Irving.

Undrafted sharpshooter Darin Green Jr chipped in with 18 points off the bench, including 5-for-9 from 3-point range.

Dallas has some international flare on the roster too, including Spanish League big Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu, who had 16 points vs Memphis

We all know OKC’s story: they’re stacked, so this team consists of their 2026 draft picks and a bunch of journeymen that they’re hoping could turn into something useful — but end of the rotation kind of useful.

It’s development vs results, and so it’s been a success, no matter what the record.

Bennett Stirtz (16th pick) has been everything as advertised, averaging 17.7 points and 3.4 assists, and his 43.2% shooting average should only go up, while Aday Mara (12th pick) is the big-in-progress, putting up 8.0 points, 7.6 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game.

Both had their best outings vs Denver, with Stirtz dropping 22 and six dimes on 50% shooting, while Mara went for 14 points, seven boards and six dimes in an eventual 106-103 loss.

While both are available to play, there is a glut of others hopefuls wanting to get some precious burn in Game 4, so I doubt Stirtz or Mara will take on big minutes.

• OVER 179.5 points (-127 at Kalshi)

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O/U Pick

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Kalshi

Over 179.5 Points

56%

Predict

For as poor as the scoreboard results are for the Thunder, the team has cleared the combined 180-point plateau in every game they’ve played in Vegas, and they’re coming off their highest scoring game so far.

OKC eclipsed 50% shooting from the field for the first time, going 39-for-74 (53%).

Dallas had a real clunker in a 91-70 loss to the Lakers, but that’s the one poor offensive showing for them in Summer League, as they too have combined to soar past this total in their other two games.

The Mavericks had their best shooting game so far last time out, lighting up Memphis for 51% from the field and a nice 12-for-26 from deep, a 46% clip.

These teams are trending into a high-scoring affair.

Mavericks vs Thunder Odds

Taking the Thunder to win outright comes with -120 odds at bet365, while Dallas gets +100 odds for a win. The Mavs are also getting 1.5 points on the spread, but both teams are getting the same -110 odds on either side.

The total check in at 180.5 points, but Over bettors should look at other markets like Kalshi, where the total is a point less at 179.5 — a figure these teams have crossed in five of their six games played in Vegas.