Predictions & Props to Bet in Warriors vs Lakers (Summer League Semis)

• The Lakers (4-0) and Warriors (3-1) will meet Saturday in the 2026 NBA Summer League semifinals
• I’m backing the Lakers to win (ML: -117) thanks to an offense that has averaged 97.8 ppg in Summer League play 
• Back the Over in points (O 179.5, -138) due to the offensive tendencies from both teams

The Golden State Warriors (3-1) and the Los Angeles Lakers (4-0) will determine the second finalist of the 2026 NBA Las Vegas Summer League when they lock horns on Saturday, July 18, at 8:30 p.m. ET at Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The Lakers were the only team to finish the initial round of the Summer League undefeated, winning every game by double digits. The Warriors posted a 3-1 record and also won each game by at least 10 points, but the loss to the Memphis Grizzlies is the only stain on their record.

Warriors vs Lakers: Best Bets, Picks and Predictions

I’m looking past the traditional stats and recent form to analyze which team has the mathematical edge. Here are my best picks and predictions for this second semifinal of the 2026 NBA Las Vegas Summer League.

Moneyline Pick: Lakers (-117 from Kalshi)

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Kalshi

Lakers ML

54%

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Using the odds from Kalshi, which often deliver better prices than traditional sportsbooks, I can see the Lakers have a slight edge heading into this match. The fact that they’re the only undefeated team so far in the Summer League backs them up, but it’s not just the wins. The quality of the wins matters even more.

The Lakers’ closest win was against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Summer League opener, 96-84 on July 10. Since then, they dispatched the Dallas Mavericks (91-70), the Los Angeles Clippers (99-85) and the Chicago Bulls (105-82). Their +17.5 point differential led all Summer League teams by a wide margin, and they also averaged 97.8 points per game — the best mark among the four teams that reached the playoffs.

For comparison, the Warriors posted a 3-1 record but secured their playoff berth by defeating the New York Knicks (87-77) on Thursday, July 16. Golden State averaged 94.3 points per game, the second-worst mark out of teams that qualified for the Summer League postseason, and their +6.3 point differential was also the worst mark among the four playoff clubs.

The Lakers have a clear edge on both the mathematical and analytical sides. They’ve been the better team in the 2026 NBA Las Vegas Summer League so far, and I believe they shouldn’t have major problems against a Warriors team that ranked ninth in scoring — but dead last among the four playoff teams. I’m backing the Lakers here, as they should get the win, led by rookie Cameron Carr, who’s an outside contender in the NBA Rookie of the Year Odds.

Total Points Pick: Over 179.5 points (-138 from Kalshi)

The Lakers and Warriors have been among the most prolific offenses in the 2026 NBA Las Vegas Summer League. Both teams rank in the Top 10 in scoring per game before Saturday’s action, with Los Angeles putting up 97.8 points per game and Golden State scoring 94.3 ppg. 

Thus, expecting the point total to exceed the 179.5 mark is a reasonable outcome, even if I account for regression that could occur given these two teams are among the best in the current Summer League campaign. Three of the Lakers’ four games have had over 180 points in the current Summer League campaign. The same outcome has occurred in three of the Warriors’ four SL contests, with the lone exception being the game against the New York Knicks.

Warriors vs Lakers Betting Odds

Odds as of July 18, 12:30 p.m. ET from Kalshi, with prices converted to standard American odds.

The Lakers are the odds-on favorites for this contest, but that shouldn’t be much of a surprise given how dominant they’ve looked throughout the entire Summer League. Their impressive offense and the way they’ve outmatched opponents on both ends of the court make them clear favorites here against a Warriors team that has some cracks defensively, as evidenced by their 106-85 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on July 14.

A $20 bet on the Lakers winning would produce a $17.00 win for a $37.00 payout using Kalshi odds, as they tend to be better and more accurate than the traditional sportsbooks. The same $20 bet on the Warriors would fetch a $23.40 win and a $43.40 total payout.