Final du Plessis vs Usman Prediction, Best Bets & Updated Odds: UFC Oklahoma City

• Former champions Dricus du Plessis and Kamaru Usman headline UFC Oklahoma City tonight, Saturday, July 18th
• Du Plessis is a -220 favorite at BetMGM as Usman moves up to 185 pounds for the second time
• See my final du Plessis vs Usman prediction, best bets and updated odds below

The UFC’s return to Oklahoma City is headlined tonight by a middleweight clash between two former champions. Dricus du Plessis looks to bounce back from his first promotional loss, while Kamaru Usman climbs to 185 pounds for just the second time in his career.

Du Plessis is the naturally bigger man and the betting favorite. Usman is the decorated wrestler chasing a title run in a new division at 39.

Here’s my final du Plessis vs Usman prediction, best bets and the updated odds.

Final du Plessis vs Usman Prediction

I’m taking du Plessis, but not at -220. Usman is one of the most durable fighters of the last decade, and du Plessis has never been stopped inside the UFC octagon. Two guys this tough don’t tend to produce a quick ending.

Usman’s path runs through his wrestling and top control, which eats clock rather than producing fast finishes. Du Plessis should find his moments late, leaning on his size and pressure. But wearing down a defensive rock like Usman takes time.

The Chimaev loss is the cloud hanging over this one. Du Plessis spent most of 25 minutes on his back in that fight and couldn’t scramble free. Usman isn’t the same chain-wrestling threat, though, and he leans on cage control and body locks more than explosive shots to the back.

That difference matters. Du Plessis does his best work fighting out of bad spots and firing back in the scramble, which is where Usman is less dangerous than Chimaev was. The value sits in the duration markets rather than the moneyline, and I expect this to reach the scorecards with du Plessis’ hand raised.

• Du Plessis vs Usman Pick: Fight to End by Decision (-125 at BetMGM)

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Get Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US), 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Promotional offers not available in MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD1500

CODE: SBD1500

SIGNUP BONUS

GET UP TO
$1,500 BACK

IN BONUS BETS!

BET NOW

Du Plessis vs Usman Best Bets

My cleanest read is the fight reaching the scorecards. The “Decision” market for either fighter sits at -125, and it leans on the durability both men bring in. Usman has been finished once in the last decade, and du Plessis has never been stopped in the UFC.

The styles reinforce it. Usman wants to control position and drain the clock, not hunt a finish, and du Plessis needs time to break down elite opposition. Neither approach points to an early stoppage, which is why the distance is my favorite spot on the board.

If you want more juice on the winner, du Plessis by decision at +150 is the play. It backs my read that he outworks Usman over 25 minutes without needing a finish. He’s gone the distance in three of his last four, so the scorecards are familiar territory.

Usman at +180 has a case if you trust the wrestling and the gas tank to bank enough rounds. The takedowns and control time are proven weapons, and he has as much championship-round experience as anyone on the roster. I just lean du Plessis on youth, size and durability in a long fight.

• Best Bet: Fight to End by Decision (-125 at BetMGM)
• Value Play: du Plessis by Decision (+150 at BetMGM)
• Winner: du Plessis Moneyline (-220 at BetMGM)

Updated Du Plessis vs Usman Odds

Du Plessis sits at -220, an implied probability of about 69%. Usman comes back at +180, or roughly 36%. Strip the vig and the market gives du Plessis a clear edge, but the method numbers are where it gets interesting.

A du Plessis decision pays +150, and a full-fight decision on either man sits at -125. Both point to a bout the books expect to go long. On the finish side, a du Plessis KO/TKO is +175 while a stoppage win for Usman is a distant +2500.

The stylistic data backs the long-fight read. Usman logged nearly 13 minutes of control time against Joaquin Buckley and has never recorded a submission attempt in the UFC. He wants position and clock, which push the value toward the duration and decision markets over a -220 moneyline.

Du Plessis vs Usman Tale of the Tape

Du Plessis holds the edges that matter most for a five-round fight. He’s seven years younger and has spent his whole UFC run at middleweight, while Usman is making just his second trip to 185. The reach is identical at 76 inches and both own nine knockout wins, but du Plessis’ 11 submission victories dwarf Usman’s one.

That submission gap is the number that jumps out. If this hits the mat, du Plessis is the one more likely to threaten a finish, while Usman’s game is built on control rather than chasing the tap. It’s another reason a decision feels like the likeliest outcome.

Odds as of July 18th at BetMGM. Grab a BetMGM promo code for UFC Oklahoma City or browse UFC betting apps.