Pirates vs Yankees Predictions & Player-Prop Picks on July 21

• The Pittsburgh Pirates visit the New York Yankees after losing 8-5 in the series opener
• Will Warren brings his dominant 13-6 record to the bump tonight
• It’s a must to keep scrolling to get the best player prop picks and latest odds

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The New York Yankees and Pittsburgh Pirates are continuing their series in the Bronx after the home favorites secured an 8-5 victory in yesterday’s contest. The Yankees enter the matchup looking to maintain their momentum and capitalize on their home-field advantage against a scrappy Pirates squad. Taking the bump for the Yankees is Will Warren, who brings a stellar 13-6 W-L record into tonight’s start.

The underdog Pirates will counter with Bubba Chandler. He enters with a 7-11 W-L mark and will be tasked with cooling down a potent lineup featuring elite bats like Jazz Chisholm Jr and Cody Bellinger. The Pirates will lean heavily on offensive catalysts like Bryan Reynolds to pull off the road upset. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, July 21, at Yankee Stadium, with live coverage on YES. Keep scrolling for my best MLB odds and picks!

Best Pirates vs Yankees Player Props to Bet

Based on recent performance metrics and situational trends, I have zeroed in on a few standout MLB player props for tonight’s contest. I am fading a veteran struggling at home and backing a pair of red-hot hitters to stay absolutely ON FIRE at the dish.

Pick 1: Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 Total Bases (+132 at Caesars)
Nick Gonzales has been an absolute MENACE when playing on the road. Getting plus-money on his MLB Total Bases Props is a massive value when you look at his recent away splits. Gonzales is an incredible 8-1 versus a total bases line of 1.5 in his last nine road games, equating to an 89% hit rate for the over.

He has safely recorded a base hit in ten straight road contests. Furthermore, his season-long metrics back up the recent hot streak, as he enters the game batting .309 with 23 extra-base hits.

Pick 2: Ben Rice Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100 at BetMGM)
Ben Rice provides another excellent even-money opportunity. He has been a reliable source of offense lately, particularly in front of the raucous home crowd in the Bronx. Rice has gone over his 1.5 total bases prop in six of his last eight games overall (75% success rate).

When isolating his performance at Yankee Stadium, he has recorded a knock in eight of his last nine home games. His ability to get on base consistently makes him a strong candidate to rack up multiple bases tonight and cash this ticket.

Pick 3: Cody Bellinger Under 1.5 Total Bases (60¢ at Kalshi)
While betting unders is never glamorous, the data points to a strong fade here. Bellinger has found ways to single, but he is just not producing the extra-base hits required to clear this line at home. You can grab his “Total Bases 2+ No” at 60 cents on Kalshi for a far better payout!

Bellinger has gone under 1.5 total bases in eight of his last ten home games (80% under). Even though he is getting singles, those weak knocks are rarely translating into enough total bases to beat the threshold.

Odds as of July 21 2026, at 12:50 PM ET from BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and Kalshi

 

Pirates vs Yankees Player Props & Trends

Before locking in your action, Claim your BetMGM promo now or Sign up now to claim our FanDuel promo to maximize your bankroll! Here is how the hitting props shape up for tonight’s clash.

The hitting props market is headlined by Ben Rice, who is the overall favorite to swat a dinger at +245 on BetRivers. You can also find massive value in the MLB pitcher strikeout props market today! Be sure to Start betting at Caesars now to secure these lines.

I love hunting for situational trends to find edges. Here are the most actionable betting trends for tonight’s batters:
* Austin Wells: Wells has gone under 0.5 hits in 8 of his last 10 games at home (80% under).
* Jazz Chisholm Jr: Chisholm has gone over 0.5 hits in 6 straight home games (100%).
* Jasson Dominguez: Dominguez is 8-2 versus a 0.5 hits line in his last 10 games (80% over).
* Paul Goldschmidt: Goldschmidt has gone over 0.5 hits in 3 straight games against the Pirates (100%).
* Bryan Reynolds: Reynolds has exceeded 0.5 hits in 8 of his last 9 games on the road (89%).
* Brandon Lowe: Lowe has gone under 1.5 total bases in 3 of his last 4 games (75% under).

Currently, there is extremely limited MLB batter vs pitcher stats history available between these projected starting lineups and the two young arms taking the bump. With no meaningful sample size of at-bats, I am relying purely on the recent offensive splits outlined above to find my betting angles.

Pirates vs Yankees Injury Report

Both dugouts are dealing with significant injury woes that directly impact their respective game plans. Here is the latest MLB starting lineups and injury impact breakdown. If you are looking to bet these changing rosters, grab theScore Bet promo code today.

The Yankees are navigating a heavily depleted roster, particularly in run production. The absences of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton remove the heart of their power profile. Without their two most feared sluggers, they will need to manufacture runs through small ball and contact hitters.

The Pirates are dealing with a similarly brutal injury report. Losing Oneil Cruz eliminates a crucial element of speed on the basepaths. Missing Endy Rodríguez and Spencer Horwitz further thins out their position player depth, meaning their active lineup has ZERO margin for error tonight in the Bronx.

Pirates vs Yankees Odds & Weather

Before we look at the lines, make sure to Claim your bet365 bonus now or Use our DraftKings promo! Let’s check out the current MLB odds for this AL-NL showdown.

Odds as of July 21 2026, at 1:00 PM ET from BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and Bet365

The Yankees enter tonight’s matchup as the home favorites, sitting at -135 on the moneyline. If you want a vastly better payout, you can back the Yankees moneyline at 56 cents on Kalshi! On the runline, backing them to win by multiple runs yields a +143 payout, while the Pirates are juiced to -170 to cover the spread.

The total runs market is set at a 9.5. The runline originally opened with the Yankees at -1.5 (+140) and the Pirates at +1.5 (-170). The juice has shifted marginally since then. The most significant shift has occurred in the total runs market. The juice has entirely flipped from heavily favoring the under to now backing the over at -115.

Be sure to check the MLB weather report closer to first pitch! Because Yankee Stadium is an open-air venue, wind direction is a CRITICAL factor in the Bronx. If the wind is blowing out toward the notorious short porch in right field, it could significantly boost the home run prospects for left-handed sluggers!