Best MLB Home Run Odds & Top Picks for Today’s Slate

Published: July 24, 2026 at 8:58 am EDT

Apr 20, 2025; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton (25) reacts after hitting a home run against the Atlanta Braves during the seventh inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Analyze today’s packed 15-game MLB slate to identify the most formidable home run threats in high-leverage spots.
Highlight premium hitting environments like Nationals Park and Citizens Bank Park, where volume metrics strongly favor the long ball.
Break down actionable, data-backed MLB home run props for elite sluggers and ballyhooed underdogs alike.

With a packed 15-game MLB slate on the board, today offers a prime opportunity for bettors to hunt for massive payouts. Whether you are eyeing marquee heavyweight showdowns like the New York Yankees taking on the Philadelphia Phillies, or the Los Angeles Dodgers facing the New York Mets, elite sluggers are stepping to the plate. We have combed through the starting rotations and the latest MLB weather report to identify the absolute best value. It takes a certain underdog mentality to consistently beat the sportsbooks, but a sharp, statistical eye provides the edge.

When targeting MLB player props, venue context is just as critical as the batter in the box. Today’s action features games in the league’s most prolific run-scoring environments, with ballyhooed matchups taking place at Nationals Park, Citizens Bank Park, and Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Conversely, bettors must demand longer odds when looking at pitcher-friendly MLB park factors like Oracle Park or Comerica Park.

HR Props: Top Home Run Picks Across Today’s MLB Slate

Matchup	Pick	Best Odds
Diamondbacks @ Nationals	Corbin Carroll	+360
Yankees @ Phillies	Bryce Harper	+400
Braves @ Orioles	Gunnar Henderson	+351
Astros @ White Sox	Yordan Alvarez	+231
Dodgers @ Mets	Shohei Ohtani	+303
Athletics @ Twins	Byron Buxton	+230

Corbin Carroll (+360) — Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals

Carroll steps into one of the most prolific run-scoring environments in baseball today. His resilient work ethic has been critical in discovering his power stroke, reflecting a true underdog mentality every time he steps to the plate. Nationals Park ranks fourth in the league overall, yielding 11.39 combined runs per game and averaging 3.18 home runs per contest.

While Washington starter Carson Palmquist has limited the long ball effectively with a 0.79 HR/9 rate, the elite hitting conditions make this a highly appealing venue. Carroll’s high-leverage power volume should flourish in this formidable offensive environment.

Bryce Harper (+400) — Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees

Harper gets a highly favorable draw at home against Yankees starter Will Warren. Warren operates with an elevated 1.27 HR/9 rate across 99 innings of work this season, making him a prime target for sluggers. Harper’s legendary bat speed and sheer volume of hard contact make him a nightmare for pitch-to-contact arms.

Citizens Bank Park provides a ballyhooed backdrop for power hitters. The stadium ranks inside the top 10 league-wide in overall offensive production, churning out 9.62 runs per game while averaging 2.73 home runs per matchup. Claim your BetMGM promo now to get in on the action.

Gunnar Henderson (+351) — Baltimore Orioles vs. Atlanta Braves

Henderson is perfectly positioned for success against Braves starter Grant Holmes. Holmes has struggled mightily with the long ball, surrendering 15 homers over 92.3 innings. This results in a 1.46 HR/9 rate, the seventh-highest among today’s starters, making him a highly HR-susceptible matchup for the gritty Baltimore slugger.

The game takes place at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, a top-10 offensive venue this season. The park is averaging a formidable 2.45 combined home runs per game.

Yordan Alvarez (+231) — Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox

Alvarez faces a tougher test on paper against White Sox starter Davis Martin, who boasts a stingy 0.51 HR/9 rate over 106 innings. Rate Field also profiles as a lower-tier park for offensive output this year, ranking 19th with just 8.69 runs and 2.23 home runs per game.

However, Alvarez’s ballyhooed power makes him a constant threat to clear the fences regardless of the venue. His relentless plate discipline and elite exit velocity volume allow him to exploit even the most formidable pitching matchups. Utilize the theScore Bet promo code to maximize value here.

Shohei Ohtani (+303) — Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets

Ohtani draws a prime matchup against Mets left-hander Sean Manaea. Manaea has been highly susceptible to the long ball this season, allowing 12 homers over 79.7 innings. His 1.36 HR/9 rate ranks eighth-worst on the slate, marking him as a high-leverage target for opposing power hitters.

Citi Field ranks just outside the top 10 for offensive production, giving Ohtani a solid environment to do damage. Check the latest MLB odds to find the best numbers.

Byron Buxton (+230) — Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics

Buxton presents excellent betting value as he matches up against Athletics starter Jacob Lopez. Despite battling through adversity with an underdog mentality throughout his career, Buxton’s power remains formidable. Lopez has been one of the most HR-prone pitchers in baseball this year, sporting a bloated 1.66 HR/9 rate that ranks fifth-worst among today’s starters.

Target Field provides a middle-of-the-pack hitting environment with 9.22 runs per game. However, this specific pitching matchup creates a highly exploitable scenario for Buxton to go deep.

Daniel Destler

Danny Destler is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A graduate of Marist University, Dan covers a wide range of sports topics, creating engaging and evergreen content for DFS enthusiasts and casual fans.