Ball State vs UMass Player Props Picks & Wednesday MACtion Predictions (Nov. 4)
By Ryan Potts in College Football
Published:
- Ball State visits UMass for Wednesday MACtion at 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU
- The Cardinals’ red-zone finisher and a steady receiver headline my prop angles
- Read below for my Ball State vs UMass player props picks and predictions
Ball State visits UMass on Wednesday night, with kickoff set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU. The Cardinals bring a 3-5 overall record and 2-2 MAC mark, while the Minutemen sit at 4-4 and 1-3 in conference play.
Our Ball State vs. UMass prediction favors UMass to win and the game to stay Under 49.5. I am skipping the side and total and targeting player props that fit a tighter game.
Ball State vs UMass Player Props Picks
Horton’s anytime touchdown at -115 is the cheapest of the three. Both yardage overs cost -130, with both targets sitting below 40 yards. Compare prices across the top College Football betting apps before locking anything in.
Ball State vs UMass Prop Pick #1: TJ Horton Anytime Touchdown
The Cardinals turn to TJ Horton when they get close. He scored two rushing touchdowns in the October 24 homecoming win over Sacramento State, giving him nine rushing touchdowns on the season. He leads the MAC in yards per rush (6.3 yards per rush) as well as scrimmage touchdowns (nine).
He did it without a heavy workload. Horton carried nine times for 33 yards, while Jalen Bonds handled 17 carries for 77 yards. Bonds does more of the work between the twenties, and Horton finishes drives.
A game projected to stay under the total may give Ball State only a few red-zone trips. I expect Horton to get those goal-line carries, and -115 is a fair price for that role. He has scored in four consecutive games, punching it in twice in each of the last two games – both Ball State wins.
- Pick: TJ Horton Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-115 at theScore Bet)
Wednesday MACtion Prop Pick #2: Donovan Hamilton Receiving Yards
Donovan Hamilton has been a steady part of the Ball State passing game. Through October 31, he has 25 catches for 310 yards and one touchdown in seven games. He leads the Cardinals in catches and yards, and he is tied for third in receiving touchdowns.
That works out to 44.3 receiving yards per game and 12.4 yards per catch. His 34.5 line sits nearly 10 yards below his season average, so he does not need a breakout night. He has cleared this modest mark (34.5 yards) in four consecutive games, tallying as many as 80 yards in Ball State’s loss to Kent State. While Hamilton only has five catches over his last two games, he has averaged 18 yards per catch.
If UMass holds a slim lead late, Ball State will need to keep throwing. Three catches at his season average would be enough to clear this number.
- Pick: Donovan Hamilton Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-130 at theScore Bet)
Ball State vs UMass Player Props Pick #3: TJ Horton Rushing Yards
I am going back to Horton for his yardage total against the Minutemen. This is the riskier of the two Horton plays because Ball State splits its backfield work.
Horton finished with 33 yards on nine carries against Sacramento State while Bonds took the larger share. He needs a bit more volume to clear 39.5.
A close, lower-scoring game keeps the run game on the call sheet for four quarters. Ball State has little reason to abandon it, and a few extra short-yardage carries would put Horton within range of this MACtion prop.
Out of eight games this season, Horton has cashed this prop four times. He is one of the more boom-or-bust backs in college football, rushing for 75 yards four times while having three games below 10 rushing yards. He has had at least five rush attempts in all eight games which is encouraging, but he has only cracked double-digit carries once.
Horton would be a fascinating player to bet on his tail outcomes. He has outbursts of 125, 90, 81, and 79 yards this season – well above his 39.5 mark for this game. Taking Horton on a yards ladder could be lucrative, but there is also a risk in a single-digit yardage game, a feat he “achieved” in Week 1 and Week 4. He only has one game between 10 rushing yards and 79 rushing yards.
- Pick: TJ Horton Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-130 at theScore Bet)
Odds from theScore Bet, verified November 4 at 1:25 p.m. ET.
Ryan Potts is a veteran football and baseball content creator. He was previously a credentialed NFL media member, covering the draft, combine, and Super Bowl. He has been featured on Atlanta sports talk radio and Arizona student radio. Ryan is a journalism graduate from the University of Arizona.
