Dodgers vs Mets Predictions, Picks & Betting Splits on Sunday

• The Dodgers are ML favorites (-160) in Dodgers vs Mets odds and lead the majors in runs scored per game on the road (5.84)
• The Over (O9, -120) is a strong play since this Dodgers vs Mets matchup features two struggling pitchers
• Check the best Dodgers vs Mets predictions, picks and player props

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The Los Angeles Dodgers (67-38) continue their series against the New York Mets (43-62) on Sunday, July 26. This afternoon clash marks Game 3 of the set after Los Angeles secured a 4-3 victory on Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 PM ET at Citi Field, with coverage on SportsNet LA and SNY.

I will analyze the board to find betting value, keeping the focus on statistical mismatches. The Dodgers are heavy road favorites, led by Shohei Ohtani. Meanwhile, the Mets face an uphill battle at home. Let’s dive into the metrics to uncover the best angles for this contest.

Dodgers vs Mets: Best Bets, Picks & Predictions

When evaluating this matchup, the statistical gulf between these two clubs is glaring. Los Angeles has plated 543 runs this season, compared to just 424 for New York. The Dodgers boast an elite 3.53 team ERA, while the Mets sit at a vulnerable 4.21 mark.

I am locking in the Dodgers Moneyline (-160 at Caesars) as my primary side. Los Angeles wins 63.3% of its games as a favorite this season (62-36). On the flip side, New York has struggled immensely as an underdog, winning just 24.4% of the time in that role (10-31).

For the game total, my pick is Over 9 Runs (-120 at Caesars). Both starting pitchers have struggled to prevent home runs and keep runners off base. Even though the Under has hit in 80.0% of New York’s last 10 games, the vulnerability of these starters makes the Over the sharpest play today. Expect early bullpen action and plenty of offensive fireworks.

If you want to isolate value in the MLB player props market, I highly recommend Teoscar Hernández Over 0.5 Hits (-167 at BetMGM). He has recorded a hit in six of his last seven road games, cashing at an 86.0% rate away from home.

Dodgers vs Mets: Starting Pitching & Team Stats Comparison

Pitching Matchup: Emmet Sheehan vs Freddy Peralta

Neither Emmet Sheehan nor Freddy Peralta is enjoying a smooth 2026 campaign. Both starters hover around a 5.00 ERA for the season. Their identical FIP metrics sit near 4.50, suggesting slightly better underlying performance, but early results remain poor.

Sheehan takes the mound for the Dodgers with impressive swing-and-miss stuff, posting a 10.2 K/9 ratio. However, his effectiveness is hampered by poor contact management. Over his last 10 appearances, Sheehan has a 5.67 ERA, yielding 1.96 home runs per nine innings. He averages just 4.60 innings per start during this stretch.

Peralta has been equally vulnerable for the Mets. Once a reliable rotation piece, Peralta now holds a 1.46 WHIP. Over his last 10 starts, opponents are batting .307 against him, leading to a 6.89 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. With both pitchers failing to complete five innings consistently, both bullpens will face heavy workloads today.

Dodgers vs Mets Team Statistics

The numbers highlight a massive mismatch favoring the visitors. Los Angeles is a juggernaut on the road, ranking first in baseball in runs per game (5.84), batting average (.273), and OPS (.804). The Mets simply lack the firepower to keep pace at Citi Field. New York averages just 4.31 runs per contest (25th) while ranking 26th in home batting average.

The underlying contact metrics are closer, with Los Angeles ranking sixth in road average exit velocity and New York ranking ninth at home. However, the Mets fail to convert hard contact into consistent run production.

Dodgers vs Mets: Batter vs Pitcher Historical Splits

Los Angeles Dodgers Batters vs Freddy Peralta

New York Mets Batters vs Emmet Sheehan

Dodgers sluggers Kyle Tucker and Shohei Ohtani are massive threats to Peralta today. Tucker has torched the right-hander with a .455 average, while Ohtani has two home runs in nine career at-bats.

Conversely, Peralta has managed to keep Mookie Betts quiet, holding him to a .091 average across 11 at-bats. Peralta has also stymied Andy Pages, who is hitless in seven appearances.

The Mets have virtually no career track record against Sheehan. Marcus Semien is the only batter with any prior head-to-head experience, logging one hit in three at-bats. Bettors must rely on current situational splits rather than historical data for New York.

Dodgers vs Mets Odds & Betting Splits

Odds as of July 26, 2026 at 10:23 AM ET from Caesars.

The Dodgers enter this afternoon’s matchup as heavy road favorites at -160 on the moneyline, reflecting their massive statistical advantage. Bettors backing Los Angeles on the runline must lay 1.5 runs at standard -110 juice. The total sits at 9 runs, indicating bookmakers expect a high-scoring affair.

The runline opened at Dodgers -1.5 and has held steady. The total opened at 9 runs, but the juice shifted from -115 to -120 on the Over. This line movement correlates with steady action, as Over tickets increased leading up to the first pitch.

Analyzing MLB public betting splits is critical for confirming wagers. The public is aligned with my moneyline prediction, heavily backing Los Angeles. The Dodgers command 86.1% of the ticket share and 88.3% of the overall money. Large wagers are firmly supporting the favorites.

On the runline, 74.1% of the public is laying 1.5 runs with Los Angeles. The money percentage drops slightly to 64.0%, indicating a few larger bettors are taking the home cushion. Regardless, the vast majority of the cash remains with the visitors.

Dodgers vs Mets Injury Report

While season statistics paint a clear picture, the injury report is a crucial factor today. The Mets face an offensive challenge without Juan Soto, who landed on the IL with a calf strain. Without his elite on-base skills, New York must manufacture runs with a compromised core. Losing Mark Vientos further drains their right-handed power.

The Dodgers’ lineup remains deep despite missing Will Smith and Enrique Hernández. Los Angeles possesses the offensive depth to absorb these positional losses effectively.

The real concern for Los Angeles lies on the mound. The Dodgers are navigating a depleted pitching staff, missing frontline starters like Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell. With high-leverage reliever Edwin Díaz also sidelined, a taxed bullpen increases the likelihood of a high-scoring game.