Expert Picks & Best Bets for Cardinals vs Blue Jays on Aug 1

• The Cardinals and Blue Jays play Game 2 of their three-game set today in Toronto
• Kevin Gausman offers elite strikeout upside despite recent ERA struggles
• See the expert picks and best bets for Cardinals vs Blue Jays on Aug 1, below

The Toronto Blue Jays (50-59) and St. Louis Cardinals (54-55) continue their series this afternoon, after Toronto successfully defended its home turf with a tight 3-1 victory last night. St. Louis steps up to the plate as road underdogs in the MLB odds, desperate to bounce back from a quiet offensive performance and creep closer to the .500 mark.

Toronto enters as a home favorite, looking to build on its recent momentum. First pitch is scheduled for 3:07 PM ET at Rogers Centre, with live television coverage on regional broadcast networks.

Below, you can see all of my expert picks and best bets for the Cardinals vs Blue Jays Interleague clash on August 1.

Odds for Cardinals vs Blue Jays

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Expert Picks and Best Bets for Cardinals vs Blue Jays

When evaluating this matchup, my primary focus shifts to situational trends and the MLB player props market. St. Louis has skewed heavily toward low-scoring affairs recently, with the Under cashing in 70.0% of their last 10 games. Toronto mirrors this exact 70.0% Under hit rate over their last 10 trips to the diamond. However, I see value in bucking this trend and targeting the game Over, particularly when utilizing Kalshi for better payouts. Don’t forget to claim the Kalshi referral code to score a bonus to bet on MLB.

Best Bet: Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+133 at Kalshi)

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Gausman Over 5.5 Ks

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Gausman Over 5.5 Ks

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Toronto’s starting pitcher offers compelling value. Kevin Gausman enters this matchup with an elite 9.10 K/9 rate across 121.2 innings of work. Eclipsing six strikeouts is well within his wheelhouse, making the plus-money price highly attractive. I expect him to lean on his secondary pitches to generate whiffs against a St. Louis lineup that struggled heavily in the series opener.

Masyn Winn Over 0.5 Hits (-175 at Caesars)
Masyn Winn has been a consistent offensive spark plug. Situational trends heavily back his ability to get on base. Winn has exceeded 0.5 hits in five of his last six games, boasting an 83.0% cover rate while averaging 1.33 hits per game over that stretch.

Lars Nootbaar Over 0.5 Hits (-175 at Caesars)
Lars Nootbaar has a distinct track record of success against Toronto. The outfielder has eclipsed the 0.5 hits mark in five of his last six games specifically against the Blue Jays (an 83.0% cover rate) according to the MLB batter vs pitcher stats. He rides a hot overall streak, clearing this line in 75.0% of his last four games.

Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 Total Bases (-176 at Caesars)
If you want to fade a cold streak, Ivan Herrera provides the perfect opportunity. The designated hitter has failed to surpass 1.5 total bases in three of his last four games, struggling to find consistent power at the plate.

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Quinn Mathews vs Kevin Gausman Stats

Gausman’s 4-10 record and 4.51 season ERA might not look overly impressive, but his underlying metrics paint a different picture. The right-hander boasts a 3.57 FIP, suggesting he has pitched significantly better than his standard ERA indicates. He continues to miss bats at an elite clip, demonstrating excellent command while issuing just 2.52 BB/9.

Despite his strong season-long peripherals, Gausman has hit a rocky patch. Over his last 10 outings, he pitched to a bloated 6.32 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. His swing-and-miss stuff remains potent, averaging 9.74 K/9 over his recent appearances. Toronto needs Gausman to rediscover his earlier form and limit free passes to secure another home victory.

St. Louis meanwhile, will hand the ball to left-hander Quinn Matthews who will be making his first career start.

Cardinals vs Blue Jays Stats

The most distinct mismatch is the sheer run production disparity. The Cardinals step up to the plate averaging an elite 5.16 runs per game on the road. Conversely, the Blue Jays rank 26th overall at home with a meager 3.91 runs per game.

St. Louis’s road success is backed by excellent batted-ball data. They strike the ball with authority, boasting an average exit velocity of 88.8 mph which helps translate into a robust .722 road OPS. This offensive efficiency aligns perfectly with my Over 0.5 hits recommendations for Winn and Nootbaar.

Toronto frequently relies on individual heroics rather than sustained rallies. Guerrero Jr remains the undisputed anchor of this lineup, but the surrounding cast will need to drastically improve their quality of contact. Looking at MLB public betting splits, casual bettors remain unbothered by these metrics, backing Toronto heavily on the moneyline despite their home struggles.