Best Bets & Picks for Jodar vs Musetti

• Spain’s Rafael Jodar is a -138 moneyline favorite over Italy’s Lorenzo Musetti in Montreal
• Jodar presents tremendous moneyline value at a 60¢ share price following his recent head-to-head triumph.
• See my Jodar vs Musetti best bets and picks, plus the latest odds, below

The Round of 32 at the ATP Montreal Men’s Singles offers a phenomenal rematch Thursday, as Spain’s Rafael Jodar, ranked 20th in the world, squares off against Italy’s Lorenzo Musetti, who is seeded 11th.

Just a week prior, Jodar dispatched Musetti in the quarterfinals at Washington, giving the surging Spaniard a definitive statistical blueprint to replicate that success.

Jodar vs Musetti goes Thursday night at 7pm ET from Center Court at IGA Stadium in Montreal, with the Tennis Channel providing the broadcast coverage in the US, and Sportsnet carrying the matches in Canada.

Read below for my best bets and picks.

Jodar vs Musetti Odds

When we break down the current betting markets, Kalshi offers Jodar at at 58¢ (translating to -138 American odds) while Musetti sits at a +127 payout. The total is set at 22.5, with -110 odds on either side of the wager.

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Odds as of Aug 6. Get a Kalshi promo code to wager on all tennis matches.

Rafael Jodar and Lorenzo Musetti have only crossed paths once on the ATP tour. However, that lone encounter took place practically yesterday, giving us highly actionable, surface-relevant data in Jodar’s 1-6, 6-1, 6-4 win at ATP Washington on July 31.

Musetti came out firing but quickly ran out of gas. A massive disparity ultimately emerged on serve. Jodar won 36 first-serve points, while Musetti managed a measly 26. When a player gives away free points via six double faults like Musetti did, it opens the door for a skilled returner to feast. Jodar seized those opportunities, capitalizing on his opponent’s second serve and maintaining sturdy baseline defense to secure a hard-fought comeback. Expect a similar tactical breakdown on Center Court in Montreal.

Jodar vs Musetti Best Bet

• Pick: Rafael Jodar Moneyline (-138/ 58¢ via Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

Moneyline Prediction

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Kalshi

Rafael Jodar to Win

58%

Predict

While Lorenzo Musetti enters this tournament sitting a couple of spots higher in the current overall ATP rankings (No. 13 to Jodar’s No. 15), I am looking strictly at 2026 form.

Jodar has been the superior player this season, perched at No. 11 in the ATP Singles Race with 2,009 points. That aggressively outpaces Musetti, who lags at No. 33 with just 995 race points.

Instead of eating standard sportsbook juice, I am leveraging Kalshi, where you can grab a “Yes” share on Jodar winning at 58¢. That translates to an implied probability and American odds equivalent of -138, which is a highly wagerable number for a player who just cracked this exact opponent.

In their Washington quarterfinal clash, Jodar was drastically more effective on serve, pounding five aces to Musetti’s three while committing half as many double faults (three to Musetti’s six). He also proved lethal on the return, generating 10 break-point opportunities to Musetti’s seven. Taking 81 total points to Musetti’s 70 in that encounter tells me Jodar holds the necessary baseline tools to dictate the pace. I am backing the chalk here with confidence.

Jodar vs Musetti Picks

• Over 22.5 Total Games (-110 at DraftKings)

When these two locked horns days ago, the match saw wild variance and stretched out to 24 total games across three sets. Neither player could sustain prolonged dominance on serve. Musetti stormed out to take the opening set 6-1 before Jodar ruthlessly flipped the momentum to claim the final two frames.

Because both men displayed undeniable service vulnerabilities—combining for nine double faults and 17 break-point opportunities in just three sets—neither is positioned to cruise to a swift, straight-sets victory. Jodar landed 48 first serves to Musetti’s 35, yet both players routinely found themselves defending break points.

I expect another grueling, drawn-out slugfest in Montreal. Given their comparable talent levels (Musetti holds 2,375 ATP points to Jodar’s 2,243) and massive break-point generation, the Over on total games is a rock-solid statistical approach.