Predictions, Picks & Splits for Blue Jays vs Phillies

• The Blue Jays and Phillies open a new series tonight in Philadelphia
• Zack Wheeler boasts a 2.48 ERA, giving Philadelphia a clear starting-pitching edge
• Keep reading for the top predictions, picks and splits for the Blue Jays vs Phillies matchup, below

The Philadelphia Phillies (61-54) welcome the Toronto Blue Jays (54-61) to Citizens Bank Park tonight, for the start of a three-game set. First pitch for Game 1 of this interleague series is slated for 6:40 PM EST. The Blue Jays just suffered a tight 3-2 loss to the Chicago Cubs. Meanwhile, the Phillies carry momentum from a comfortable 7-3 victory over the Washington Nationals.

I am eyeing a distinct pitching advantage for the home favorites in this matchup. Zack Wheeler (14-4) takes the mound for Philadelphia, facing Toronto’ probable starter’s newcomer José Soriano. Elite sluggers like Bryce Harper (.864 OPS) and Kyle Schwarber anchor a potent offense against a battered visiting lineup.

Below, you’ll find my favorite predictions, picks and splits for the Blue Jays vs Phillies contest.

Predictions and Picks for Blue Jays vs Phillies

Prediction Markets

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Under 8.5 Runs

56%

Phillies -1.5

49%

Predict

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (49¢ at Kalshi)

The moneyline price is too steep to recommend, so the runline is the better way to back Philadelphia’s edge, especially at the better Kalshi price. Wheeler’s run prevention, the Phillies’ home-field advantage, and Toronto’s banged-up lineup all point toward the home side being capable of winning by multiple runs.

Also working in favor of Philadelphia is a strong history versus Soriano per the MLB batter vs pitcher stats. Phillies hitters are batting .333 against Soriano, with a robust .444 slugging percentage. Don’t forget to claim the Kalshi referral code to score a bonus to bet on MLB.

Under 8.5 Runs (56¢ at Kalshi)

Citizens Bank Park is a hitter-friendly venue according to the MLB park factors, so this is not an automatic under. However, buying the extra half-run to 8.5 at 56 cents on Kalshi makes the under more playable than Under 8 at -116. Wheeler has been an absolute machine suppressing runs this season, entering with a 2.486 ERA, a 0.914 WHIP, and a .194 opponent batting average over 105.0 innings pitched. If Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is limited or misses another game, Toronto’s scoring outlook takes another hit.

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Blue Jays vs Phillies Odds

Odds as of August 7 at bet365. Claim the bet365 promo code before betting on MLB tonight.

The Phillies enter this contest as significant home favorites in the MLB odds on the moneyline at -238. This heavy juice reflects the considerable pitching advantage Wheeler provides in Philadelphia. The Blue Jays offer a substantial +200 payout for an outright upset, though a myriad of injuries complicates their chances.

Bettors wanting to back the home squad on the runline can take Philadelphia -1.5 at 49 cents on Kalshi. Taking Toronto provides a 1.5-run cushion at -122.

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Blue Jays vs Phillies Splits

Moving over to the MLB public betting splits, where sharp and casual bettors are firmly backing the Phillies. As of Friday morning, Philadelphia is commanding 85% of the moneyline wagers, which are accounting for the 78% of the total handle.

It’s more of the same in the runline market, where 83% of bettors are expecting Philly to win by two or more runs. Those bets represent a whopping 95% of the money wagered so far, which makes sense given that each of the World Series odds contender’s last 10 victories have covered the 1.5 number.

Total-wise, there is some professional money backing a low-scoring game. Just 28% of the wagers in that market are on the under, but those bets represent 44% of the total handle.