Best Home Run Picks & Odds Today: September 22

Published: September 22, 2026 at 9:06 am EDT

Matt Olson takes a cut at a pitch versus the Marlins. — May 19, 2026; Miami, Florida, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson (28) hits a two-run single against the Miami Marlins during the eighth inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Targeting vulnerable starting pitchers across today’s massive 16-game MLB slate.
Leveraging elite, hitter-friendly environments like Coors Field and Sutter Health Park.
Highlighting data-backed home run props for Ketel Marte, Matt Olson, and Shea Langeliers.

With a 16-game MLB slate on September 22, bettors have plenty of chances to attack the home run props market. The best angles come from hitter-friendly environments like Sutter Health Park, Wrigley Field, Yankee Stadium, and Coors Field, all of which rate highly in our MLB park factors for home runs per game.

Below, we pair today’s best odds with data-backed MLB player props, led by Ketel Marte in Denver, Matt Olson against a vulnerable Cincinnati starter, and Shea Langeliers in a strong West Coast launch spot.

Matchup	Pick	Best Odds
ARI vs COL	Ketel Marte	+235
ATL vs CIN	Matt Olson	+330
ATH vs LAA	Shea Langeliers	+272
SEA vs HOU	Cal Raleigh	+276
HOU vs SEA	Yordan Alvarez	+280
PHI vs MIL	Kyle Schwarber	+285

HR Props: Top Home Run Picks Across Today’s MLB Slate

Ketel Marte (+235) — Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies

The environmental and pitching matchup factors align perfectly for Ketel Marte to go deep in today’s divisional clash. The Diamondbacks are visiting the Rockies at Coors Field, which ranks as the fourth-most offense-friendly park in the league this season. It yields an impressive 11.19 runs and 2.58 home runs per game.

Beyond the thin Denver air, Marte gets to face Colorado starting pitcher Kyle Freeland. Across 128.1 innings of work this year, Freeland has surrendered 27 home runs. That leaves him with a 1.89 HR/9 rate, standing as the highest home run rate allowed by any starting pitcher on today’s massive 16-game slate.

Matt Olson (+330) — Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds

Matt Olson finds himself in a highly exploitable matchup against Cincinnati pitcher Brandon Williamson. While Truist Park is a relatively middle-of-the-pack environment for run production, yielding 2.42 home runs per game, the primary edge here lies directly with the man on the mound.

Williamson has struggled mightily to keep the ball in the yard. He has given up eight home runs over just 43.2 innings. That equates to a 1.65 HR/9 rate, which ranks as the third-highest mark among all active starters taking the hill today.

Shea Langeliers (+272) — Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels

For our next target, we head to the West Coast where Shea Langeliers and the Athletics host the Los Angeles Angels. Sutter Health Park currently ranks as the third-best run-scoring venue in baseball, producing 11.36 runs per game and 3.13 home runs per game.

Langeliers will dig in against Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi, who brings a 1.10 HR/9 rate into the contest after allowing seven homers across 57.1 innings. The combination of a pitch-to-contact arm and an elite home run environment makes Langeliers an excellent value play on today’s board.

Cal Raleigh (+276) — Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros

Raleigh is not just a narrative power play; the market has him as the shortest-priced home run option in the Astros-Mariners matchup. He is listed at +276 at DraftKings, with a +267 consensus price, and also shows up at +2600 in the 2+ home run market, underscoring his elite ceiling.

The park is not a pure run-scoring boost, as T-Mobile Park ranks 33rd in runs per game at 7.75, but it has still produced 2.45 home runs per game across 75 games. With Cristian Javier listed as Houston’s probable starter, Raleigh’s power profile keeps him in play even in a lower-scoring venue.

Yordan Alvarez (+280) — Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners

Alvarez is the other hitter the books clearly respect in this game. He is priced at +277 at DraftKings, and carries a +274 consensus number, making him the second-shortest home run price in this matchup behind Raleigh.

The same T-Mobile Park split applies here: overall offense has been muted, but the home run environment is more playable than the run ranking suggests, with 184 total homers and 2.45 HR per game there this season. Against Seattle probable starter Logan Gilbert, Alvarez’s left-handed thump gives bettors a data-supported way to attack a game where the top of the HR board centers on two premium power bats.

Kyle Schwarber (+285) — Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Schwarber has the strongest market case of any hitter in the Brewers-Phillies matchup. He is the shortest-priced player in that game’s home run market, available at +285 at FanDuel with a +275-consensus price, and he is also listed at +2600 to hit 2+ home runs

Citizens Bank Park adds to the appeal. The Phillies’ home park ranks ninth in runs per game this season at 9.48 and has allowed 2.55 home runs per game across 75 games, totaling 191 long balls. With Dustin May listed as Milwaukee’s probable starter, Schwarber’s pull-side power and favorable home venue make him a researched, data-backed inclusion rather than just a name-value pick.

Daniel Destler

Danny Destler is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A graduate of Marist University, Dan covers a wide range of sports topics, creating engaging and evergreen content for DFS enthusiasts and casual fans.