Early NFL Props to Target for Week 3: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker & More

• Early NFL Week 3 props start with players who have seen consistent workloads through two games
• One receiver has drawn steady targets that haven’t turned into yards yet
• Keep reading for our early NFL props to target in Week 3, plus the recent game logs behind each play

Two weeks into the season, we finally have more than one game to lean on. It’s still a small sample, but it helps separate a steady role from a one-week spike.

For early Week 3 props, I start with volume. Targets and carries tend to repeat more than long touchdowns do, and I still want to know how each defense has held up.

All three plays land on Sunday, September 27. Here are the NFL player props I’m targeting for Week 3.

NFL Week 3 Player Props to Target

These are estimated target lines, not verified sportsbook quotes. Compare available prices at BetMGM with our BetMGM promo code and check other NFL betting apps before placing a bet.

NFL Player Prop Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been the focal point of the Seahawks passing game through two weeks. He caught eight passes for 122 yards against New England in Week 1, then went for nine catches, 155 yards and three touchdowns at Arizona.

The volume is what I trust most. He drew 11 targets in each game, and he’s up to 17 catches for 277 receiving yards and four touchdowns on the season.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Recent Game Log

The one number I’d be careful with is the 82-yard touchdown in Arizona. That single play did a lot of the lifting in Week 2, but he still finished with 73 yards on his other catches while seeing the same 11 targets.

The Commanders have allowed 482 gross passing yards on 56 attempts through two games, with opponents completing 40 of those throws. CeeDee Lamb went for eight catches and 153 yards against them in Week 2.

Smith-Njigba doesn’t need another three-touchdown day to clear 74.5. If Seattle keeps feeding him double-digit targets in Washington on Sunday, the over is where I want to be.

• Early Bet: Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 74.5 receiving yards

NFL Player Prop Pick: Kenneth Walker III Rushing Yards

Kenneth Walker III has handled a full workload out of the gate. He ran 23 times for 173 yards against Denver in Week 1, then carried 24 times for 117 yards against Indianapolis.

The Indianapolis game went to overtime, which is worth noting when assessing that workload. Walker sits at 47 carries for 290 yards, and the Chiefs have leaned on him in both games.

This isn’t an easy matchup on paper. Miami has allowed 225 rushing yards on 64 attempts through two games, or 3.52 yards per carry. Teams have still kept running on the Dolphins, and Ashton Jeanty got 23 carries for 102 yards against them in Week 1.

When comparing rushing yards odds, I’m backing Walker’s workload. If Walker gets 20 carries and averages four yards, that’s 80 yards, just enough to clear the target. He’s topped 20 carries in both games so far, which gives him some room if the efficiency dips.

The risk is Miami keeping him in check the way its per-carry numbers hint it can. Still, I’ll bet on the workload and take the over at 79.5 in Miami on Sunday.

• Early Bet: Kenneth Walker III over 79.5 rushing yards

NFL Player Prop Pick: DK Metcalf Receiving Yards

DK Metcalf has been busy but not productive for the Steelers. He caught four passes for 40 yards against Atlanta, then four for 27 yards at New England, leaving him at eight catches for 67 yards with no touchdowns.

He has not recorded a catch longer than 16 yards, and that lack of chunk plays is the main reason I’m on the under.

DK Metcalf Recent Game Log

The biggest risk is volume. Metcalf has drawn 19 targets in two games, and one or two bigger connections could push him past 56.5. His 2025 season, 59 catches for 850 yards in 15 games, is also a reminder that two games is a small sample.

Cincinnati isn’t a shutdown pass defense either, allowing 569 passing yards on 84 attempts. This bet leans on how Metcalf’s season has started, not on the opponent.

Until he starts hitting bigger plays, I’ll take the under at 56.5 with Metcalf at home against the Bengals on Sunday.

• Early Bet: DK Metcalf under 56.5 receiving yards