Anisimova vs Pegula Predictions & odds for WTA Cincinnati

• Jessica Pegula is a -138 moneyline favorite over Amanda Anisimova at the WTA Cincinnati quarterfinals
• Pegula has won six out of seven head-to-head matchups with Anisimova
• See my Anisimova vs Pegula predictions and updated odds below

It’s an all-American showdown in the quarterfinals at the WTA Cincinnati, as World No. 3 Jessica Pegula steps up as the clear betting favorite against the dangerous underdog, No. 10-ranked Amanda Anisimova.

The single most crucial question is whether Anisimova can overcome a daunting historical hurdle: Pegula’s commanding 6-1 head-to-head advantage. Pegula consistently dictates the baseline terms of this matchup.

This one goes this afternoon at 1pm ET from P&G Stadium Court at Lindner Family Tennis Center in Mason, Ohio, with the Tennis Channel providing the broadcast coverage in the US. Viewers in Canada can catch this match on and TSN.

Anisimova vs Pegula Predictions

• Pick: Over 21.5 Total Games (-118 at Kalshi)

My model gives the Over a 59% probability, compared with the 54% implied probability at -118. That produces an estimated edge of roughly 4.5 percentage points and makes this the strongest value play on the board.

The stylistic clash between Anisimova’s aggression and Pegula’s sturdy defensive consistency routinely creates grueling, extended battles. Three of their five career meetings required a third set, supporting the expectation of a competitive match. A 22-game finish would still lose this wager; the Over needs at least 23 games.

• Pick: Pegula Moneyline (-127 at Polymarket)

Pegula remains a positive-EV outright play in my model. I assign her a 61% win probability, versus the 55.95% implied probability at -127. That is an estimated edge of about 4.05 percentage points.

The 52-week numbers support the head-to-head case. Her current Elo is 2,086.3 versus Anisimova’s 1,912.7, a 173.6-point edge; on hard courts, Pegula also leads 2,045.9 to 1,877.3. That gap is meaningful because Elo accounts for opponent quality rather than simply tournament round.

The underlying pressure metrics point in the same direction. Pegula creates 0.88 break points per game to Anisimova’s 0.80, faces slightly fewer break points (0.59 to 0.60), and wins 61.1% of tiebreaks compared with Anisimova’s 46.2%. Pegula’s 1.501 dominance ratio and 2.184 match-efficiency mark also exceed Anisimova’s 1.300 and 2.011. While Anisimova’s aggression can keep sets close, Pegula’s stronger return pressure—2.33 pressure points won per return game versus 2.21—gives her the edge in the biggest moments.

Anisimova vs Pegula Odds

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Odds as of August 20 at bet365. Get a bet365 bonus code to wager on all tennis matches.

Jessica Pegula leads the listed head-to-head results 6-1, although the December 2025 meeting was an exhibition. Her edge includes the 2020 Cincinnati meeting, when she defeated Anisimova 7-5, 6-2, as well as their 2026 Australian Open and Dubai encounters.

The listed results also show four three-set Pegula victories, including the December 2025 exhibition, Toronto, Charleston and Dubai. While Pegula consistently proves she has the tactical composure to close out the rivalry’s biggest moments, Anisimova reliably forces long, grueling encounters. Bettors should weigh Pegula’s outright win probability against Anisimova’s proven ability to keep these matches competitive.