NASCAR DFS Picks – Dollar Tree 301 Projections, Lineup & Strategy
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- DraftKings is offering $100,000 to first place on a $20 entry for the Dollar Tree 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
- Josh Berry starts on the front row to anchor the dominator points, with five of our six drivers rolling off 21st or worse
- Below, see our NASCAR DFS picks, projections, lineup, and strategy for the Dollar Tree 301
The Cup Series is racing at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and we have responded by leaving $100 of our DraftKings salary on the table.
This feels appropriate for the Dollar Tree 301. We went shopping, filled the cart and still had a crumpled bill left over. Unfortunately, $100 does not purchase anything useful in NASCAR. It might cover one lug nut, assuming we bring our own installation equipment.
New Hampshire is a flat, technical mile where passing is difficult and track position matters. Loading a lineup with drivers starting deep in the field carries plenty of risk. This group gives us enough short-flat-track ability and recent form to accept it.
Five of our six drivers start 21st or worse. Josh Berry is the lone exception. He will roll off from the front row and handle our potential dominator points.
Dollar Tree 301 Expert DFS Lineup and Projections
DraftKings salaries as of race week. Build your Dollar Tree 301 NASCAR DFS lineup at the best DFS sites and apps before the green flag drops at New Hampshire.
Dollar Tree 301 DFS Strategy
Joey Logano ($10,500) | Starting Position: 21st
Logano is the most expensive driver in the lineup and the easiest selection to explain.
He starts 21st, one week after winning at Richmond from 10th and leading 95 laps. Apparently, Team Penske has reached the portion of the season where Logano begins collecting trophies and making everyone wonder why we spent the summer worried about him.
The model projects Logano to finish 8.23, fifth-best in the field. That represents nearly 13 positions of expected improvement before adding any fastest laps or laps led.
His underlying numbers are outstanding. Logano ranks second in comparable-track average running position and third in fastest laps. He also owns the strongest comparable-track laps-led projection in our lineup.
The model classifies Logano as “Hot” and a “Track Specialist.” He ranked seventh in the SpeedwaySteve2 practice metric.
Qualifying handed us exactly the kind of starting position we wanted.
Chase Elliott ($8,500) | Starting Position: 29th
Elliott qualified 29th and immediately became one of the slate’s strongest position-differential options.
The model projects him to finish 17.36, almost 12 spots ahead of his starting position. Elliott ranks seventh in comparable-track average running position and ninth in fastest laps. Hendrick Motorsports also carries the model’s second-best organizational rating.
Elliott ranked 16th in the SpeedwaySteve2 practice metric. The car showed enough speed to support a steady climb through the field, even if it never looked like one of Saturday’s best.
He finished fifth at Richmond last weekend and gained eight positions during the race. A similar afternoon would play very well from 29th.
At $8,500, the starting position supplies most of the appeal. The Hendrick equipment supplies the rest.
Josh Berry ($8,200) | Starting Position: 2nd
Berry is the most aggressive selection in the lineup. Starting second eliminates the safety provided by position differential. His path to a tournament-winning score runs through laps led and a finish near the front.
New Hampshire has spent the past two years behaving like Josh Berry International Speedway.
Berry finished second and third in his last two Cup starts here. The No. 21 Wood Brothers Ford also finished runner-up to quasi-teammate Ryan Blaney last season.
Berry enters Sunday with three consecutive top-10 finishes and qualified only 0.015 seconds behind Tyler Reddick for the pole.
The SpeedwaySteve2 model ranks Berry fifth in practice, fifth in comparable-track fastest laps and sixth in projected finish. His official projection is 11.25.
Reddick’s Saturday created an interesting opening. The pole winner ranked only 27th in the overall SpeedwaySteve2 practice metric, while Berry ranked fifth. That makes Berry’s speed across the full session more convincing than the final qualifying order suggests.
A clean launch could put the No. 21 in control of the race early.
NASCAR DFS Picks: Place Differential Targets
Bubba Wallace ($8,000) | Starting Position: 23rd
Wallace starts 23rd and projects to finish 17.78.
His New Hampshire history is volatile. Wallace finished third here in 2022 and owns one other top 10 across eight starts. The remaining six races ended with finishes of 22nd or worse.
Saturday gave us enough encouragement to take the chance. Wallace ranked 13th in the practice metric, ahead of several drivers starting around him. Toyota owns the model’s highest manufacturer rating, while the No. 23 pit crew also grades as one of Wallace’s strengths.
That pit-road advantage could become important at a track where passing under green tends to require an appointment.
A finish near the model’s projection would give Wallace five positions of differential. His ceiling climbs considerably if the Toyota speed translates into a top-15 run.
Austin Cindric ($7,900) | Starting Position: 26th
Cindric gives us another Team Penske driver with room to move forward.
He finished third at Richmond after starting 23rd, gaining 20 positions while teammate Logano won the race. Penske arrived at New Hampshire fresh from controlling another flat-track event.
Saturday practice produced fewer reasons for excitement. Cindric ranked 26th in our metric and qualified in the same position.
His comparable-track results offer a more encouraging picture. The model ranks him eighth in average running position across the weighted sample and projects him to finish 19.03. A move into the high teens would provide seven positions of differential at $7,900.
We are trusting the Penske flat-track program to find more speed over a full race than it showed Saturday afternoon.
Austin Dillon ($6,800) | Starting Position: 34th
Dillon starts 34th and costs $6,800. Those two numbers are doing most of the work here.
The model projects him to finish 25.01, creating roughly nine positions of potential improvement. His practice metric ranked 31st, so expectations should remain appropriately modest.
Nobody is confusing the No. 3 Chevrolet with a rocket ship. It might not even be approved for air travel.
Dillon finished 19th at Richmond last weekend and has built much of his DFS value through survival and incremental position gains. The same approach can work at New Hampshire. Staying on the lead lap and clearing the backmarkers would put him on pace for a useful score.
Want to bet the Dollar Tree 301 outright? Grab the latest BetMGM promo code for NASCAR odds and futures, or check out theScore Bet for more lines.
Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
