Early ATS Picks for Week 0 College Football – Best Bets Against the Spread
By Chris Amberley in College Football
Published:
- The College Football season kicks off Saturday with Week 0 action
- I am targeting mispriced lines before market sentiment moves the early numbers
- Read below for my early ATS picks for Week 0 College Football and best bets against the spread
Welcome to Week 0 of the 2026 college football season, where a fresh slate of non-conference clashes and early league battles provide plenty of intriguing betting angles. Programs are debuting with pristine 0-0 records, all looking to build early momentum before the rest of the college football board gets into full swing.
The No. 14 USC Trojans headline the action as a heavy home favorite in the college football odds against the San Jose State Spartans, aiming to validate their AP Top 25 standing and National Championship odds longshot status. Meanwhile, Florida State looks to defend its turf as a massive favorite against the New Mexico State Aggies.
I am also zeroing in on competitive matchups featuring North Carolina at TCU, Memphis at UNLV, and NC State at Virginia. I am hunting for clear value before the lines move. Let’s dive into my early ATS picks for Week 0 College Football and best bets against the spread.
Early ATS Picks for Week 0 College Football
Grabbing these numbers early is critical to maintaining a profitable betting card. North Carolina is still catching more than a touchdown at TCU, Memphis has ticked down from an opening +6 to +5.5 against UNLV, and Florida State is sitting at -31.5 against New Mexico State.
Week 0 ATS Best Bet #1: North Carolina +7.5 vs TCU
TCU features a dynamic offense that lit the lamp consistently last season, averaging 30.7 points per game. Their ability to sustain drives is a real strength, converting a robust 47.4% of third-down attempts. Still, laying more than a full touchdown in Week 0 is a lot to ask against a North Carolina side with enough talent to keep this matchup inside the number. Claim your BetMGM promo code now to back the road underdog with confidence.
North Carolina’s offense struggled last season, managing just 18.9 points per contest with a 36.9% third-down conversion rate, but that weakness is already baked into the market. At +7.5, the Tar Heels give us the most important thing an underdog bettor can ask for: key-number protection above a touchdown. I would rather grab the hook with UNC than lay the inflated home number with the Horned Frogs.
- Pick: North Carolina +7.5 (-107) at BetMGM
Week 0 ATS Best Bet #2: Memphis +5.5 vs UNLV
This non-conference clash features two potent offenses, but I am grabbing the points with the road underdog. UNLV averaged 33.9 points per game in 2025, while the Memphis Tigers sat right behind them at 32.2 points. The true edge lies in the red zone, where finishing drives is paramount. Start betting with the Caesars promo code now to capitalize on this spread.
Memphis boasted a stellar 93.8% red-zone efficiency rate last year, compared to the Rebels at 88.3%. The Tigers maximize their scoring opportunities, which is exactly what I want when backing an underdog to cover. I expect Memphis to keep this field position battle extremely tight from wire to wire.
- Pick: Memphis +5.5 (-108) at Caesars Sportsbook
Week 0 ATS Best Bet #3: NC State +5.5 vs Virginia
These conference foes are remarkably even on paper, making this a classic ground-and-pound scenario. Virginia scores 30.5 points per game, while NC State averages 30.2 points. The Cavaliers held a slight edge in third-down conversions at 49.8% last season, but the Wolfpack boasted a suffocating 90.9% red-zone efficiency rate. Claim your bet365 bonus code now before this line moves.
In a methodical, execution-based matchup where neither team boasts explosive runaway potential, taking the points is the smart play. The 5.5-point cushion is a massive advantage in what profiles as a one-possession game decided in the trenches.
- Pick: NC State +5.5 (-107) at bet365
Week 0 ATS Best Bet #4: Florida State -31.5 vs New Mexico State
This is the one favorite I am comfortable adding to the card. Florida State is laying a big number, but the Seminoles are in a better position to justify it than USC at -38.5. The current consensus spread is Florida State -31.5 (-106), and that gap is meaningful when comparing the two large home favorites on the Week 0 board.
New Mexico State will likely need sustained drives and clean special teams just to stay attached, while Florida State has the talent edge to create short fields and separate early. At -31.5, I am willing to back the favorite to turn this into a five-score game rather than rely on a late backdoor cover from a heavy underdog.
- Pick: Florida State -31.5 (-106) at Caesars Sportsbook
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
