Dana White’s Contender Series Week 3 Picks: Bella Mir vs Alex Apodaca Odds & Predictions

• High-profile prospects clash at the Meta Apex this Tuesday night
• Bella Mir steps into the cage as a massive -2000 favorite in the DWCS Week 3 main event
• See my expert Dana White’s Contender Series Week 3 predictions, picks and odds below

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The UFC returns to the Meta Apex in Las Vegas this Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET for another installment of Dana White’s Contender Series. Ten more free agent prospects step into the Octagon hoping to secure a coveted UFC contract. The card culminates in a women’s bantamweight main event featuring Bella Mir vs Alex Apodaca.

With a slate full of hungry newcomers, the betting market offers intriguing angles. I am bypassing the heavy juice on the main event moneyline and hunting for situational value across the board.

Let’s break down the implied probabilities and see where the numbers point for my Dana White’s Contender Series Week 3 odds and picks.

Dana White’s Contender Series Week 3 Odds

Bella Mir is the biggest favorite on the card at -2000, presenting a staggering 95.2% implied win probability. Consequently, her opponent Alex Apodaca enters as the biggest underdog at +850.

Odds as of August 25 at BetMGM. Check out the best UFC betting apps for Dana White’s Contender Series Week 3.

Bella Mir vs Alex Apodaca Prediction

Mir is the centerpiece of this card for a reason. She’s the daughter of former UFC star Frank Mir and a five-star prospect in her own right, boasting a Division I wrestling background with a 2-0 record in UFC BJJ. Dana White has already voiced his interest in her profile on multiple occasions. Mir’s wrestling, grappling, athleticism and power make this a rough assignment for Apodaca.

Mir is a credentialed grappler, but she is also a fast-improving and athletic striker. Apodaca is flat-footed, does not bring much power, and is only 3-1 while turning around quickly after fighting just last month. Few fighters in the UFC right now could handle Mir with just a few weeks’ notice.

The submission prop makes sense given Mir’s background, but I prefer the value on the knockout price. Mir can hurt Apodaca standing, and if she gets on top, her aggressive ground and pound can force the finish. This is a complete showcase for a rare prospect in the women’s bantamweight division, and we will take a shot on Mir to get the job done with her hands.

• DWCS Week 3 Pick #1: Bella Mir by KO/TKO (+400 at Bet365)

Ronald Humphrey vs Alexis Miranda Best Bet

Humphrey looks like an elite prospect already. He is fast, explosive and athletic, with the kind of ring generalship that usually takes far more than four fights to develop.

What stands out most is how quickly he reads openings. His vision, timing and defense are already sharp, and that is a bad combination for Miranda to solve. Miranda has nearly three times as many professional fights, yet still looks like an amateur, while Humphrey is already performing like a trained assassin.

Miranda is too flat-footed here and backs up with his chin high. That is a terrible defense against a striker as measured as Humphrey. The speed and power gap should show immediately, and I do not see Miranda surviving Humphrey’s best offense. This one could be over quickly.

• DWCS Week 3 Pick #2: Ronald Humphrey by KO/TKO (-450 at Bet365)

Sean Clancy Jr vs Gary Balletto Pick

Sean Clancy Jr is still raw in some areas, as one would expect from a 23-year-old prospect. Still, the upside is glaringly obvious. He is huge for the division, extremely athletic, and brings black belts in BJJ, Judo and Taekwondo.

Balletto enters this fight off the best year of his career, but all that success came in the BKFC, where he is a top-five-ranked middleweight contender. This is a completely different ball game. Balletto has not had an MMA fight in well over a year, and that matters against someone with Clancy’s grappling toolbox.

In the two years alone, we have seen how poorly BKFC fighters perform when they revert back to MMA. Jeremy Stephens looks like two completely different fighters in the ring and the Octagon, while others such as John Dodson, Guilherme Viana and Jade Masson-Wong have not had nearly as much success back in the cage.

Clancy tends to get the job done with his striking, but I like the submission price with the way Clancy attacks in creative ways and can create scrambles that Balletto may not be ready for. If Balletto has spent the last year focused on bare-knuckle boxing, I doubt his grappling is sharp enough.

• DWCS Week 3 Pick #3: Sean Clancy Jr by SUB (+175 at Bet365)

Mario Piazzon vs Guilherme Uriel Prediction

This pick is built around Uriel’s chaotic fight style. Every one of his fights has gone under 1.5 rounds, and he does not waste time trying to get down to business.

Skill for skill, Uriel is actually more talented, but he comes out firing on all cylinders, giving himself about two-and-a-half minutes of quality cardio. He could still find openings against the stagnant Piazzon to close the show before it even begins. Piazzon already has one first-round knockout loss on his record.

But if Uriel cannot get Piazzon out of the way early, he becomes a sitting duck by the end of the first round.

Either Uriel overwhelms Piazzon right away, or he fades badly. Both scenarios point to volatility, not a slow-paced decision.

• DWCS Week 3 Pick #4: Piazzon vs Uriel Under 1.5 (-190 at Bet365)

Nick Galanti vs Carlos Petruzzella Best Bet

Former college football player Nick Galanti is probably the more skilled fighter, but he is still very early in his development. He wants to wrestle and wear opponents down, yet his striking and fight IQ remain severely under-developed.

The concern is that Galanti still struggles to maintain control at times, and he tends to get more desperate with his shots as the fight wears on. Against someone chaotic, physical and willing to empty the tank like Petruzzella, that can get uncomfortable fast.

Petruzzella began his career as a grappler, but he has fallen in love with the violence and is never hesitant to throw leather. He takes no time getting settled and is constantly going at full speed, even if that can sometimes be to his detriment.

Petruzzella is a wild card, but I like that for him in this matchup. He should be all gas from the opening horn, and I am not convinced Galanti is ready to handle that pace or pressure yet. There is more value on the underdog than laying the price on Galanti and hoping he survives.

• DWCS Week 3 Pick #5: Carlos Petruzzella ML (+205 at Bet365)