NASCAR DFS Picks – Coke Zero Sugar 400 Projections, Lineup & Strategy
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- DraftKings is offering $100,000 to first place on a $20 entry for the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway
- All six drivers start 28th or worse, combining for 77.57 positions of projected improvement on a chaotic superspeedway slate
- Below, see our NASCAR DFS picks, projections, lineup, and strategy for the Coke Zero Sugar 400
Daytona International Speedway eats carefully constructed expectations for breakfast.
You can study every comparable race, evaluate organizational performance and build the most sophisticated NASCAR projection model in the Western Hemisphere. Thank you very much. You did not have to say it, but we appreciate the recognition.
Then somebody makes an ambitious decision in the middle lane, 17 cars disappear into a cloud of smoke, and Cody Ware is suddenly leading with seven laps remaining.
This is the natural order of superspeedway racing.
The Coke Zero Sugar 400 also features a new rules package intended to increase single-car speed while maintaining the same pack speeds. That adds another variable to a race that already has enough variables to qualify as an advanced mathematics course.
For DFS purposes, we are keeping the strategy simple. All six drivers in our DraftKings lineup start 28th or worse. The model projects every one of them to move forward, and the group offers a combined 77.57 positions of projected improvement.
The lineup costs only $44,800. We are leaving $5,200 unused, which feels irresponsible everywhere except Daytona. Here, it feels like personal growth.
Coke Zero Sugar 400 Expert DFS Lineup and Projections
DraftKings salaries as of race week. Build your Coke Zero Sugar 400 NASCAR DFS lineup at the best DFS sites and apps before the green flag drops at Daytona.
Coke Zero Sugar 400 DFS Strategy
Christopher Bell ($10,200) | Starting Position: 35th
Bell qualified 35th despite entering the weekend with the highest power rating in the SpeedwaySteve2 model. He ranks first in projected finish at 12.82, creating more than 22 positions of projected improvement.
There is also considerable evidence that Bell can charge through the field in this style of racing. He won at Atlanta after starting 32nd in 2025, then returned to the track this summer and finished second from the same starting position. Bell also finished 13th in last season’s Coke Zero Sugar 400.
A clean top-15 finish would generate an enormous place-differential score. Bell has the talent and equipment to offer even more if he survives the evening’s scheduled collection of multi-car accidents.
Denny Hamlin ($9,100) | Starting Position: 30th
Pairing two Joe Gibbs Racing drivers may feel uncomfortable in a race where teammates tend to locate one another shortly before something expensive happens.
Still, Hamlin is too accomplished at Daytona to ignore from the 30th starting position.
The model ranks Hamlin third in overall power rating and projects him to finish 15.36. That represents nearly 15 positions of potential improvement.
Hamlin has also repeatedly moved forward after poor qualifying efforts at Atlanta. He finished sixth from 37th in the 2025 spring race, then recorded finishes of 13th from 29th and 12th from 28th in the two 2026 events.
Those are exactly the types of uneventful journeys through the field we are requesting Saturday night.
Carson Hocevar ($8,700) | Starting Position: 28th
Hocevar is the most compelling superspeedway performer in this lineup.
He won at Talladega earlier this season after starting 12th, leading 19 laps in the process. He also finished sixth and eighth in the two 2025 Talladega races.
His Atlanta results are somehow even stronger. Hocevar finished second in the spring 2025 race, 10th that summer, fourth this spring and third in July. He led 25 laps and recorded 16 fastest laps in that most recent appearance.
The model projects Hocevar to finish 21.57 from the 28th starting position. That estimate may be conservative considering he has finished fourth or better in each of the three comparable races held this season.
Hocevar has never encountered volatility he did not immediately attempt to become involved with, but the upside is undeniable.
NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Plays
Zane Smith ($5,900) | Starting Position: 34th
Smith starts 34th and is projected to finish 23.01, giving him approximately 11 positions of expected improvement.
He also owns one of the strongest recent superspeedway records in the field. Smith finished sixth in the 2026 Daytona 500, fifth at Talladega this spring and ninth in the most recent 2025 Talladega race. He also finished seventh in both the spring 2025 and spring 2026 Atlanta events.
That is five top-10 finishes in his last eight comparable-track appearances.
At only $5,900, another top-10 would make Smith one of the slate’s most valuable drivers.
AJ Allmendinger ($5,500) | Starting Position: 36th
Allmendinger completes the lineup from the 36th starting position.
His projected finish of 25.78 represents more than 10 positions of expected improvement. His recent results from the back of comparable fields also support the projection.
Allmendinger started 35th and finished 19th in this year’s Daytona 500. He advanced from 28th to 16th at Talladega and has recorded a pair of 12th-place finishes at Atlanta since the beginning of last season.
The assignment is simple. Allmendinger must remain on the lead lap, avoid the largest accidents and gradually inherit positions as the race eliminates half the population.
Noah Gragson ($5,400) | Starting Position: 37th
Gragson offers the largest discount in our lineup and starts 37th.
The model projects him to finish 23.89, creating more than 13 positions of place-differential upside. His recent results provide additional encouragement.
Gragson finished 11th in this year’s Daytona 500 after starting 25th. He then climbed from 29th to ninth at Talladega. That followed a sixth-place finish from 27th in the 2025 spring Talladega race.
There are only three positions available to lose and 36 available to gain. At $5,400, that is a perfectly acceptable arrangement.
Essentially, we are asking six knuckleheads to avoid the other knuckleheads for 400 miles.
What could possibly go wrong?
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Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
