Fery vs Buse Predictions, Picks & Odds (Aug 29)

• Arthur Fery is a -125 favorite against Ignacio Buse in the title match at the ATP Winston-Salem
• The Under cashes easily if Fery maintains his lockdown service hold percentage
• See my Fery vs Buse predictions, picks and updated odds below

Great Britain’s Arthur Fery clashes with Peru’s Ignacio Buse Saturday in the title match at the ATP Winston Salem final.

Ranked No. 36 globally, Buse enters with a razor-thin edge over the No. 37 Fery. And while Fery is a the books’ pick, designating a clear favorite or underdog here is tough on paper, though my numbers dictate a definitive edge.

Fery vs Buse goes at 4pm ET from Stadium Court at Wake Forest University Tennis Complex in Winston Salem, North Carolina.

You can catch the action on the Tennis Channel in the United States, while Canadians can tune in on TSN.

Fery vs Buse Predictions and Picks

• Pick: Fery Moneyline (53¢ / -113 at Kalshi)

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Kalshi

Fery to Win

53%

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While Buse holds a negligible one-spot advantage in the overall rankings, the tactical matchup leans heavily toward the British player.

During their sole encounter, Fery thoroughly dismantled the Peruvian’s delivery. Buse landed 30 first serves but managed to win a meager 66.7% of those points. Fery relentlessly pressured the return, creating seven break point opportunities and converting four.

Because Fery already proved he can serve him off the court in straight sets, betting his moneyline offers a sturdy edge. Kalshi prices Fery at 54¢ for a “Yes” payout. This gives us fantastic value compared to the standard -125 at traditional sportsbooks.

• Pick: Under 23.5 Total Games (56¢ / -127 at Kalshi)

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Under 23.5 Total Games

56%

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The underlying metrics suggest a highly efficient match structure rather than a drawn-out baseline slugfest. Their previous clash yielded just 16 total games, falling well short of this 23.5 threshold. This rapid pace is driven largely by Fery’s stronger hold profile and his ability to create pressure on return.

In their 2025 meeting, Fery dominated his service games by winning 79.4% of his first-serve points, all without hitting a single ace. He played flawlessly clean tennis, painting the lines to register zero double faults while erasing the solitary break point he faced.

The 52-week numbers support that script: Fery’s 81.4% service-games-won rate is 4.8 percentage points better than Buse’s, and Fery’s 26.5% return-games-won figure still gives him a credible path to breaks. His 1.024 Dominance Efficiency is lower than Buse’s 1.108, however, and Buse’s four three-set wins this week make the total less attractive if the underdog extends sets. The Under is therefore tied to Fery imposing the same clean, break-led pattern he showed in their first meeting. (Source: Tennis Ratio, 52-week key-stat comparison; ATP Winston-Salem match results supplied.)

If Fery replicates this lockdown holding percentage while continuing to attack a vulnerable opposing serve, this final can conclude briskly. I am firing on the Under 23.5 games at 56¢ (-127) via Kalshi, with the moneyline remaining the stronger of the two positions.

Fery vs Buse Odds

Odds as of August 29 at bet365. Get a bet365 bonus code to wager on all tennis matches.

Arthur Fery and Ignacio Buse have met just once previously, with Fery holding a 1-0 advantage in their head-to-head record. In their 2025 ATP Stockholm qualification round matchup, Fery secured a commanding straight-sets victory, claiming 12 total games to Buse’s four.

A closer look at the statistics from that clash reveals a decisive tactical edge. Fery dominated on the return, converting four of his seven break point opportunities. Crucially, his own service game was rock-solid under pressure. He avoided double faults entirely and erased the only break point he faced, outscoring his opponent 56 to 40 in total points.

For my money, this lopsided result provides tangible predictive value. The historical data indicates Fery possesses the exact return game needed to secure multiple breaks, making him a highly reliable investment in this championship spot.