Atlanta Dream vs Golden State Valkyries Picks & Props for WNBA Finals Game 5

• The Valkyries are 1.5-point home favorites over the Dream tonight in Game 5 on the WNBA Finals
• Golden State has been outscored in 9 of 16 quarters in the series and is averaging only 67 points per game
• Keep reading for the Atlanta Dream vs Golden State Valkyries Picks and Props for WNBA Finals Game 5, below

The WNBA Finals returns to Golden State tonight with the series deadlocked at 2 games each. The Valkyries won an absolute rock fight 67-62 on Saturday to square things up, despite converting only 9 field goal attempts total in the second half. Prediction markets like their chances of taking a 3-2 series stranglehold tonight, but that’s a sentiment I completely disagree with for the reasons I’ll lay out below.

Tip-off for Game 5 is set for 8 pm ET at the Chase Center, in San Francisco, CA, with USA Network and CNBC providing the broadcast coverage. Keep reading for my favorite Atlanta Dream vs Golden State Valkyries picks and props for WNBA Finals Game 5, below.

Atlanta Dream vs Golden State Valkyries Game 5 Odds

Odds as of October 26 at BetMGM; prices may change. Get the BetMGM promo code today to get in on the action

Before we get to my selections, let’s take a look at the Dream vs Valkyries Game 5 odds. Golden State is laying 1.5-points at traditional sportsbooks, and is a -118 moneyline favorite. Atlanta comes back as a -102 underdog, but if you have access to prediction markets like Kalshi, you can trade the Dream to win at a more favorable +104 price.

As for the total, it currently sits at 150.5 points. I think you can make a strong case to back the under, but I’m looking to the game props market to fade the anemic Valkyries offense specifically.

Dream vs Valkyries Picks and Props

• Golden State Valkyries Over 75.5 Points – NO (51¢ / -104 at Kalshi)
• Atlanta Dream to Win (49¢ / +104 at Kalshi)

As bad as Golden State’s 2nd half offensive performance in Game 4 was, Atlanta’s was even worse. The Dream converted only 8 field goal attempts in the third and fourth quarter combined, but did manage to outscore the Valkyries by 11 points in the half thanks to numerous trips to the line. Despite the poor showing, Atlanta’s offensive ceiling is still sky-high, as they’ve already shown the ability to reach 95+ points in this series, which is why I’m avoiding the full game total.

I’m not however, passing up a chance to bet against the Golden State offense. This is a team that is averaging only 67 points per game in the Finals, shooting 36% or less in all four outings. They’re turning the ball over at an astronomical rate (14 / game), and they’re long range shooting is completely non-existent. The Valkyries are 30-of-122 from beyond the arc, good for a dismal 26%.

Before you make the argument that regression is coming, it’s important to note that Golden State was poor offensively during the regular season as well. They ranked dead last in field goal percentage, second worst in points and free throw attempts per game, and third worst in assists.

Their efficiency is so bad, that even when they earn drastically more shots than their opponent, they still struggle to put up big numbers. The Valkyries had 18 more field goal attempts than the Dream in Game 4, in large part thanks to an uncharacteristic 18 Atlanta turnovers, and still only posted 67 points. It took one of the Dream’s worst offensive outings of the campaign to allow Golden State back in the series and I just don’t see that happening again.

Which brings me to backing Atlanta to win outright. They played about as bad as they could in Game 4 and still kept things close. This has been one of the best offensive teams in the league all season, and they’re still favored to win the title in the WNBA Championship odds. Atlanta has won 9 of the 16 quarters played so far in the Finals, and feature arguably the two best players in the series in Angel Reese and Rhyne Howard.

Speaking of the duo, they’re two of four Dream players who are averaging double-digit points in the Finals, while the Valkyries have only two. Atlanta is the significantly deeper, more rounded offensive team, and they’re stingy enough in their own end to continue shutting down Golden State.

I’ll take under 75.5 points for the Valkyries and a Dream upset victory at Kalshi, where new users can sign up with the Kalshi promo code and score a bonus to use on tonight’s game.